124 Juniperus Dr #45 · Safety Harbor, FL 34695

$169,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 864 sqft · Manufactured public records · 118 Days on market

Built 1980 3,746 sqft lot Est $125k · 35% over $235/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2 bedroom 2 bath at the top of the hill in a no flood zone. This home has a backyard that backs onto a tropical view with trees. There is a really lovely view from the back patio. Remodeled in beautiful condition with crown molding, newer appliances and much more. Remodeled kitchen with waterproof Luxury vinyl floor. Master bath has a shower surround with compartments for shampoo and other shower amenities and grab bar. The HVAC is one year old. This home is in terrific condition - very well cared for. It has a double shed with washer & dryer in the front part and a workshop in the back. Gulf Breeze remodeled the front lanai. The 52X70 lot is included in the price since this is a deed

Key facts

• Shower surround
• Remodeled kitchen
• Double shed

Tags

• BACK PATIO
• REMODELED KITCHEN
• WATERPROOF LUXURY VINYL FLOOR
• SHOWER SURROUND
• DOUBLE SHED
• WORKSHOP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Private maintained road; Lot dimensions approximately 52 x 70 (about 0.09 acres)
• Financial info: Total annual association fees $2,820; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Association-managed community; Monthly association fee $235 (includes pool, maintenance of grounds, private road, recreational facilities, sewer, trash, water); Association amenities: clubhouse, pool, spa/hot tub, recreation facilities, shuffleboard court, laundry; Community features: association recreation owned, clubhouse, pool, street lights, golf carts allowed; Senior community; Cats allowed; Association approval required

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Security: Buyer/association approval required
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected; Underground utilities
• Home design: Manufactured double wide (Jacobsen model); Single-story; North-facing; Entry level: One
• Construction: Metal siding; Membrane and metal roof; Roof over; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Front porch; Patio; Private mailbox; Private lot; Paved lot; Sliding doors

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Sliding doors
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $221 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 2.7% in Safety Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#8 in FL, #296 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Curlew Creek Elementary School (math 67% / reading 63%, grade B+, #514 of 2,144 statewide, top 24%, 634 students, 43% FRL); Safety Harbor Middle School (math 45% / reading 43%, grade D, #327 of 571 statewide, top 57%, 974 students, 50% FRL); Countryside High School (math 25% / reading 45%, grade F, #379 of 667 statewide, top 58%, 1,741 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.3%/yr); 171 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.3% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $39k; list at $169k implies a 333% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,790 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.60%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $125,280
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33 New Fawn Ct #23	0.27mi	2/2.0	864 (0%)	8mo	$125,000	$145	81

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-4,930
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $51,417
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34695

• Home prices YoY: -30.2%
• Rents YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 171
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,825 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $353/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$235
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $221

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,546

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $317	-5% $269	+0% $221	+5% $-19	+10% $-78
Rent	-10% $77	-5% $149	+0% $221	+5% $293	+10% $365
Rate	-1.0pp $306	-0.5pp $264	base $221	+0.5pp $177	+1.0pp $133

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
36 Magnolia Ct #4 Safety Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	19d	1	0.25mi
2955 Bay View Dr Safety Harbor, FL	2.0	1.0	1047	$2,150	$2.05	26d	1	0.73mi
2941 Shore Dr Safety Harbor, FL	2.0	1.0	1055	$1,825	$1.73	6d	1	0.80mi
116 Dolphin Dr S Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1090	$2,495	$2.29	0d	1	0.91mi
225 Tarpon Ln Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$2,400	$2.14	6d	1	0.92mi
86 Pelican Dr N Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	26d	1	1.04mi
1 Pelican Dr N Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$2,000	$2.08	12d	1	1.04mi
3640 Meriden Ave Unit 3 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	1.0	980	$1,575	$1.61	14d	1	1.07mi
3664 Meriden Ave Unit A Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	970	$1,795	$1.85	26d	1	1.12mi
2652 N McMullen Booth Rd Clearwater, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1037	$1,710	$1.65	0d	15	1.14mi
3141 Huron Ave Unit B Oldsmar, FL	3.0	2.0	1089	$1,875	$1.72	26d	1	1.15mi
3062 Eastland Blvd Unit D11 Clearwater, FL	1.0	1.0	920	$1,695	$1.84	26d	1	1.24mi
3455 Countryside Blvd #4 Clearwater, FL	3.0	2.0	995	$2,050	$2.06	6d	1	1.24mi
3038 Eastland Blvd Unit F101 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1030	$1,775	$1.72	6d	1	1.25mi
3034 Eastland Blvd Clearwater, FL	1.0	1.0	720	$1,500	$2.08	26d	1	1.29mi
3048 Eastland Blvd Unit C105 Clearwater, FL	1.0	1.0	750	$1,525	$2.03	26d	1	1.29mi
3042 Eastland Blvd Unit H110 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1030	$1,700	$1.65	26d	1	1.30mi
100 Old Village Way Oldsmar, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1070	$1,475	$1.38	3d	9	1.44mi
47 Emerald Bay Dr Oldsmar, FL	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,750	$1.59	25d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $235 · $2,820/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,000 Active 108 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,000 Active 107 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $169,000 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,000 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 101 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 100 DOM
13. 2026-05-01
    price $169,000
14. 2026-02-20
    listed $183,000 Active
15. 2011-12-09
    soldstatus $39,000
16. 2000-12-06
    soldstatus $36,000
17. 1982-01-01
    soldstatus $40,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $353 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,403 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,050/yr (+$87/mo · 297.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,905
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$353
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,752
• − Management: −$1,752
• − HOA: −$2,820
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$1
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$0
• After-tax cash flow: $2,652/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Safety Harbor

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #296

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Safety Harbor, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 18,098
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,098
• Household income: $95,238
• Rent vs Own: 13.5% rent · 86.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 103.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 7% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.72%
• Current HPI: 335.0437
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.34%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+313.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $169,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Listed $183,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records
• 2000-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records
• 1982-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $40,900 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $353 · +9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.