9158 Scramble Dr · Four Corners, FL 33896

$550,000

8 bd · 5.0 ba · 3,909 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 2015 6,098 sqft lot Est $633k · 13% under $416/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Appreciation +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Short Sale. Experience resort style living in the highly sought after gated community of Stoneybrook at Champions Gate! Located just minutes from Disney, world famous attractions, shopping, dining, and major highways, this property offers incredible flexibility as a primary residence, vacation home, second home, or lucrative short term rental investment opportunity. This home is being sold fully furnished and turn key ready for investment and short term rental. Nestled within one of Central Florida’s premier resort communities, owners and guests enjoy access to an unmatched lineup of amenities including a resort style pool, lazy river, water slides, splash pad, fitness center, clubhou

Key facts

• Gated community
• Lazy river
• Water slides

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• RESORT STYLE POOL
• LAZY RIVER
• WATER SLIDES
• FITNESS CENTER
• CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Suitable for short-term rentals (zoned SHORT TERM)
• Financial info: Total monthly fees listed as $416; Total annual fees listed as $4,992
• HOA & community: HOA managed by ICON MGNT; Monthly association fee $416 (required); Community features: clubhouse, dog park, fitness center, park, playground, pool, sidewalks, tennis courts; Pets allowed: cats and dogs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Cable available; Electricity available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Short term zoning; Two-story home; Faces west; Completed condition
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Tile roof; Slab foundation; Built with mature landscaping
• Exterior features: Covered rear screened porch; Patio; Private mailbox; Sidewalk; Storage; Tennis courts (community)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Solid surface counters; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 8 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 5 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen/family room combo; Solid surface counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside (upper level); Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 8-bed/5.0-bath single-family listed at $550k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-449 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $471k (14.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $505k (8.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $471k (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in Four Corners — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#453 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 773 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,051/mo this rent would consume 81% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 1490% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.8%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($534k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $470,754 (14.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.50%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $633,258
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9156 Wedge Dr	0.06mi	8/5.0	3,909 (0%)	6mo	$570,000	$146	92
1408 Moon Valley Dr	0.21mi	8/5.0	3,909 (0%)	4mo	$690,000	$177	87
1445 Rolling Fairway Dr	0.17mi	8/5.0	3,909 (0%)	7mo	$765,000	$196	86
1462 Myrtlewood St	0.32mi	9/5.0 (+1)	3,909 (0%)	1mo	$620,000	$159	79
9093 Hazard St	0.42mi	8/5.0	3,909 (0%)	3mo	$650,000	$166	78
1502 Moon Valley Dr	0.41mi	8/5.0	3,909 (0%)	5mo	$600,000	$153	76
9022 Shadow Mountain St	0.41mi	9/5.0 (+1)	3,909 (0%)	0mo	$606,000	$155	76
9041 Hazard St	0.44mi	8/5.0	3,909 (0%)	7mo	$640,000	$164	74
1520 Mulligan Blvd	0.48mi	8/5.0	3,909 (0%)	5mo	$610,000	$156	74
1429 Wexford Way	0.39mi	9/5.0 (+1)	3,909 (0%)	6mo	$605,000	$155	72
1521 Flange Dr	0.61mi	8/5.5	3,909 (0%)	7mo	$645,000	$165	63
1432 Rolling Fairway Dr	0.13mi	7/6.0 (-1)	3,339 (-15%)	2mo	$540,000	$162	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.83% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-104,647
• Equity at exit: $111,138

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-158,587
• Equity at exit: $99,129

Cash invested: $154,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33896

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 773
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,051 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax from tax record: −$910 /mo · $10,918/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$416
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,061
• Net cashflow: $-449

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,619

Max offer price $470,754

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,500
• Closing costs: $16,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1455 Belle Terre Rd Unit 1018170P Championsgate, FL	9.0	5.0	3907	$5,133	$1.31	8d	1	0.07mi
1479 Moon Valley Dr Unit 1524597P Championsgate, FL	9.0	5.0	3907	$5,627	$1.44	2d	1	0.32mi
1429 Wexford Way Unit 1379461P Championsgate, FL	9.0	5.0	3907	$6,878	$1.76	8d	1	0.36mi
1432 Wexford Way Unit 1018227P Championsgate, FL	9.0	5.0	3907	$7,647	$1.96	15d	1	0.37mi
1496 Moon Valley Dr Unit 1018184P Championsgate, FL	8.0	5.0	3907	$4,059	$1.04	8d	1	0.38mi
1520 Moon Valley Dr Unit 1018197P Davenport, FL	7.0	5.0	3519	$3,156	$0.90	3d	1	0.40mi
9048 Sand Trap Dr Unit 1346940P Championsgate, FL	8.0	5.0	3907	$7,018	$1.80	3d	1	0.46mi
1521 Flange Dr Unit 1379464P Championsgate, FL	8.0	5.5	3907	$5,660	$1.45	8d	1	0.60mi
9052 Sommerset Hills Dr Unit 1336800P Davenport, FL	9.0	5.0	4359	$8,496	$1.95	22d	1	0.71mi
1652 Moon Valley Dr Unit 1037684P Championsgate, FL	8.0	5.0	3907	$4,938	$1.26	8d	1	0.73mi
1174 Drop Ln Reunion, FL	7.0	7.0	3900	$5,900	$1.51	8d	1	0.81mi
1174 Drop Ln Reunion, FL	7.0	5.0	4019	$4,690	$1.17	24d	1	0.81mi
8800 Interlocking Ct Davenport, FL	8.0	5.0	3909	$3,990	$1.02	12d	1	0.96mi
9210 Sommerset Hills Dr Davenport, FL	8.0	5.0	4018	$5,497	$1.37	24d	1	1.00mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $416 · $4,992/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgymsecurity

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $550,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $550,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $550,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $550,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $550,000 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $550,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $550,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $550,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $550,000 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $550,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $550,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $550,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $550,000 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $550,000 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    listed $550,000 Active
16. 2026-02-16
    historical
17. 2026-01-02
    status Active
18. 2026-01-01
    historical
19. 2025-12-08
    price $600,000
20. 2025-11-06
    price $619,000
21. 2025-10-21
    price $620,000
22. 2025-10-06
    price $625,000
23. 2025-09-26
    price $635,000
24. 2025-09-10
    historical $3,500
25. 2025-09-01
    price $640,000
26. 2025-08-21
    price $650,000
27. 2025-08-07
    listed $3,500
28. 2025-07-27
    status Active
29. 2025-07-27
    price $730,000
30. 2025-06-07
    price $615,000
31. 2025-05-15
    status Active
32. 2025-04-23
    historical
33. 2025-04-17
    price $619,000
34. 2025-03-11
    price $620,000
35. 2025-03-03
    price $650,000
36. 2025-01-28
    listed $800,000 Active
37. 2024-06-19
    price $800,000
38. 2024-05-25
    listed $820,000 Active
39. 2023-09-05
    soldstatus $765,000
40. 2023-08-25
    soldstatus $765,000 Closed
41. 2023-06-29
    status Pending
42. 2023-06-01
    status Active
43. 2023-06-01
    price $799,500
44. 2023-05-18
    status Pending
45. 2023-05-06
    price $810,000
46. 2023-04-10
    price $839,499
47. 2023-01-17
    status Active
48. 2023-01-05
    historical
49. 2022-11-30
    price $839,500
50. 2022-11-19
    price $840,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,918 · $910/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,918 · $910/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $60,618
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,809
• − Property taxes: −$10,918
• − Insurance: −$2,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,849
• − Management: −$4,849
• − HOA: −$4,992
• − Depreciation: −$16,000
• Taxable loss: −$14,550
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,492
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,891/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Osceola
• NCES district ID: 1201470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,528
• Composite: 35.7/100
• National rank: #4865
• State rank: #60 of 73 in FL

Livability — Four Corners

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #453
• US rank: #8218

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Four Corners, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 27,422
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,731
• Household income: $74,668
• Rent vs Own: 54.9% rent · 45.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1490.0

Population outlook (Osceola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,624 people
• By 2030: 511,823 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 642,986 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 774,552 · +73.0%
• By 2075: 1,078,144 · +140.9%
• By 2100: 1,269,660 · +183.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 14% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 15% Cuban 4% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Estonian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 31% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Osceola

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 19.7pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+13.8 2016: D+25.0 2012: D+24.5 2008: D+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.83%
• Current HPI: 219.4726
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.19%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+4.8% since first listed

44 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $550,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-16 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-02 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $600,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $619,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $620,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $625,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $635,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-10 Rental Removed $3,500 STELLARMLS
• 2025-09-01 Price Changed $640,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $650,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-07 Listed for Rent $3,500 STELLARMLS
• 2025-07-27 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-27 Price Changed $730,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-07 Price Changed $615,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-15 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-23 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-17 Price Changed $619,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-11 Price Changed $620,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-03 Price Changed $650,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-28 Listed $800,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-19 Price Changed $800,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-25 Listed $820,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-05 Sold (Public Records) $765,000 Public Records
• 2023-08-25 Sold (MLS) $765,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-29 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-01 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-01 Price Changed $799,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-06 Price Changed $810,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-10 Price Changed $839,499 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-17 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-05 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-30 Price Changed $839,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-19 Price Changed $840,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-16 Price Changed $864,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-29 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-28 Price Changed $865,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-25 Price Changed $914,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-09 Listed $915,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-25 Sold (MLS) $458,490 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-10-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-10 Listed $524,940 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+15.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,918 · -7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.