5209 Tarawa Rd · Houston, TX 77033

$157,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 327 Days on market

Built 1956 6,560 sqft lot $145/sqft · at area comps Est $164k · at est. ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Stabilized 12-Home SFR Portfolio | Houston, TX | $142K NOI | 5.5% Cap | Rent Growth & Market Appreciation Potential *** OPPORTUNITY ZONE *** (Seller will not sell home individually) This home offers exceptional tenant stability, with the current resident occupying the property for eight years. The lease is currently month-to-month, creating immediate flexibility for rent adjustment or repositioning to market rates. Following a fire in 2016, the property underwent a complete rebuild, including new framing, plumbing, electrical, kitchen, flooring, and interior finishes, ensuring modern systems and long-term durability. Condition & Value-Add: The property operates with window-unit HVAC (no central air), representing a straightforward improvement opportunity. Given the below-market rent and upgraded condition, this property is ideally positioned for rent growth and enhanced value through HVAC installation and lease restructuring.

Key facts

• New framing
• Complete rebuild
• New plumbing

Tags

• COMPLETE REBUILD
• NEW FRAMING
• NEW PLUMBING
• NEW ELECTRICAL
• NEW KITCHEN
• NEW FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $157k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-49 ($-586/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (5.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (14.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $135k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 338 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($38k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 327 days — a 12% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $53k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $134,913 (14.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 327 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.33%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $164,191
• List price: $157,000
• Delta: -4.38%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5233 Dieppe St	0.06mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,237 (+14%)	3mo	$35,000	$28	65
7314 Forrestal St	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,020 (-6%)	0mo	$105,000	$103	65
5306 Kenilwood Dr	0.59mi	2/1.0	1,038 (-4%)	5mo	$80,000	$77	62
5318 Longmeadow St	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,138 (+5%)	3mo	$125,000	$110	61
7330 Hurtgen Forest Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,154 (+7%)	3mo	$154,900	$134	60
5810 Southgood St	0.31mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,223 (+13%)	4mo	$116,000	$95	56
5041 Southwind St	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,020 (-6%)	7mo	$195,000	$191	55
5009 Bataan Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,228 (+14%)	2mo	$130,500	$106	50
7713 St Lo Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,151 (+7%)	4mo	$199,900	$174	49
7338 Hurtgen Forest Rd	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,230 (+14%)	2mo	$220,000	$179	48
5035 Andrea St	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,156 (+7%)	5mo	$195,000	$169	48
5014 Yellowstone Blvd	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,190 (+10%)	6mo	$189,900	$160	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-25,105
• Equity at exit: $23,409

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-11,007
• Equity at exit: $13,574

Cash invested: $43,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77033

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 338
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,349 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$823
• Tax from tax record: −$226 /mo · $2,711/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $-49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,411

Max offer price $148,376

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,250
• Closing costs: $4,710
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5537 Bataan Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	880	$1,300	$1.48	43d	1	0.44mi
5954 Doolittle Blvd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1371	$1,575	$1.15	43d	1	0.65mi
5835 Southmont St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	43d	1	0.68mi
5314 Northridge Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$1,185	$1.36	43d	1	0.74mi
7918 Jutland Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	996	$1,295	$1.30	43d	1	0.81mi
6532 Weston St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1484	$2,200	$1.48	17d	1	0.87mi
6528 Weston St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1484	$2,200	$1.48	43d	1	0.87mi
7818 Calhoun Rd Unit 8 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	43d	1	0.98mi
6030 Schroeder Rd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	740	$850	$1.15	43d	1	1.06mi
8107 Calhoun Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1304	$2,250	$1.73	24d	1	1.06mi
4530 Mayflower St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,800	$1.38	43d	1	1.06mi
4615 Redbud St Unit b Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$1,149	$1.32	24d	1	1.08mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 324 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1003	$965	$0.96	7d	1	1.08mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 1162 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1003	$965	$0.96	5d	1	1.08mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 5535 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1003	$940	$0.94	13d	1	1.08mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 1165 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1003	$962	$0.96	2d	1	1.08mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 5565 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1003	$935	$0.93	43d	1	1.08mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,190	$0.90	7d	1	1.08mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 5571 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,214	$0.92	10d	1	1.08mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 5535 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1003	$1,004	$1.00	10d	1	1.08mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 2187 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,182	$0.89	2d	1	1.08mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,190	$0.90	5d	1	1.08mi
5514 Griggs Rd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1003	$935	$0.93	13d	1	1.10mi
5514 Griggs Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,210	$0.92	43d	1	1.10mi
4609 Bricker St Unit ABC Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1375	$3,500	$2.55	11d	1	1.12mi
4609 Bricker St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1300	$3,500	$2.69	12d	1	1.12mi
4609 Bricker St Unit C Houston, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$3,200	$2.91	12d	1	1.12mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,225	$0.93	11d	1	1.16mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 1047 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1003	$1,005	$1.00	11d	1	1.16mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,214	$0.92	3d	1	1.16mi
5918 Schroeder Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	850	$1,000	$1.18	43d	1	1.18mi
5924 Schroeder Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$895	$0.99	22d	1	1.19mi
5924 Schroeder Rd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	800	$795	$0.99	24d	1	1.19mi
5924 Schroeder Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$895	$0.99	43d	1	1.19mi
5520 Griggs Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,241	$0.94	43d	1	1.20mi
5520 Griggs Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,241	$0.94	22d	1	1.20mi
5520 Griggs Rd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1003	$1,030	$1.03	24d	1	1.20mi
5116 Griggs Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1131	$1,316	$1.16	43d	1	1.23mi
5154 Griggs Rd Unit CAVE Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,420	$1.07	3d	1	1.24mi
4515 Dewberry St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1400	$664	$0.47	20d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $157,000 Active 327 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $157,000 Active 326 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $157,000 Active 325 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $157,000 Active 324 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $157,000 Active 322 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $157,000 Active 318 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $157,000 Active 317 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $157,000 Active 316 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $157,000 Active 313 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $157,000 Active 310 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $157,000 Active 309 DOM
12. 2026-05-01
    status Active 952-char remark

    Show marketing remark (952 chars)

    Stabilized 12-Home SFR Portfolio | Houston, TX | $142K NOI | 5.5% Cap | Rent Growth & Market Appreciation Potential *** OPPORTUNITY ZONE *** (Seller will not sell home individually) This home offers exceptional tenant stability, with the current resident occupying the property for eight years. The lease is currently month-to-month, creating immediate flexibility for rent adjustment or repositioning to market rates. Following a fire in 2016, the property underwent a complete rebuild, including new framing, plumbing, electrical, kitchen, flooring, and interior finishes, ensuring modern systems and long-term durability. Condition & Value-Add: The property operates with window-unit HVAC (no central air), representing a straightforward improvement opportunity. Given the below-market rent and upgraded condition, this property is ideally positioned for rent growth and enhanced value through HVAC installation and lease restructuring.

13. 2026-04-30
    historical 952-char remark

    Show marketing remark (952 chars)

    Stabilized 12-Home SFR Portfolio | Houston, TX | $142K NOI | 5.5% Cap | Rent Growth & Market Appreciation Potential *** OPPORTUNITY ZONE *** (Seller will not sell home individually) This home offers exceptional tenant stability, with the current resident occupying the property for eight years. The lease is currently month-to-month, creating immediate flexibility for rent adjustment or repositioning to market rates. Following a fire in 2016, the property underwent a complete rebuild, including new framing, plumbing, electrical, kitchen, flooring, and interior finishes, ensuring modern systems and long-term durability. Condition & Value-Add: The property operates with window-unit HVAC (no central air), representing a straightforward improvement opportunity. Given the below-market rent and upgraded condition, this property is ideally positioned for rent growth and enhanced value through HVAC installation and lease restructuring.

14. 2025-11-04
    price $157,000 952-char remark

    Show marketing remark (952 chars)

    Stabilized 12-Home SFR Portfolio | Houston, TX | $142K NOI | 5.5% Cap | Rent Growth & Market Appreciation Potential *** OPPORTUNITY ZONE *** (Seller will not sell home individually) This home offers exceptional tenant stability, with the current resident occupying the property for eight years. The lease is currently month-to-month, creating immediate flexibility for rent adjustment or repositioning to market rates. Following a fire in 2016, the property underwent a complete rebuild, including new framing, plumbing, electrical, kitchen, flooring, and interior finishes, ensuring modern systems and long-term durability. Condition & Value-Add: The property operates with window-unit HVAC (no central air), representing a straightforward improvement opportunity. Given the below-market rent and upgraded condition, this property is ideally positioned for rent growth and enhanced value through HVAC installation and lease restructuring.

15. 2025-07-25
    listed $210,000 Active 952-char remark

    Show marketing remark (952 chars)

    Stabilized 12-Home SFR Portfolio | Houston, TX | $142K NOI | 5.5% Cap | Rent Growth & Market Appreciation Potential *** OPPORTUNITY ZONE *** (Seller will not sell home individually) This home offers exceptional tenant stability, with the current resident occupying the property for eight years. The lease is currently month-to-month, creating immediate flexibility for rent adjustment or repositioning to market rates. Following a fire in 2016, the property underwent a complete rebuild, including new framing, plumbing, electrical, kitchen, flooring, and interior finishes, ensuring modern systems and long-term durability. Condition & Value-Add: The property operates with window-unit HVAC (no central air), representing a straightforward improvement opportunity. Given the below-market rent and upgraded condition, this property is ideally positioned for rent growth and enhanced value through HVAC installation and lease restructuring.

16. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,711 · $226/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,873 · $239/mo
• Expected delta: +$162/yr (+$14/mo · 6.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,190
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,794
• − Property taxes: −$2,711
• − Insurance: −$785
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,295
• − Management: −$1,295
• − Depreciation: −$4,567
• Taxable loss: −$3,258
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$782
• After-tax cash flow: $196/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,154
• Household income: $38,071
• Rent vs Own: 41.0% rent · 59.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1728.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 17% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 39%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.49%
• Current HPI: 212.6472
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-25.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $157,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-25 Listed $210,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,711 · +17.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.