403 & 405 Rock Hill Dr · Rock Hill, NY 12775

$155,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 812 sqft · Manufactured public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1975

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

TWO SEPARATE LOTS (403 AND 405 ROCK HILL DRIVE) IN THIS SALE - .73 ACRE HAS A MANUFACTURED HOME AND .69 ACRE LOT (THE MANUFACTURED HOME WAS REMOVED). TOTAL TAXES FOR BOTH LOTS $1,900.00. LARGE SHED, LEVEL LAND, MOSTLY OPEN LAND, SOME TREES. THE EXISTING MANUFACTURED HOME IS HANDYMAN, TO BE REHABBED, OR REPLACED BY ANOTHER QUAILFYING MANUFACTURED OR NEW BUILD HOME. TOWN WILL REQUIRE PLANNING BOARD APPROVAL. LEVEL LOTS, 1/2 MILE TO DOWNTOWN ROCK HILL, I-86 (NYS 17). SHORT 6 MINUTE DRIVE TO MONTICELLO, 18 MINUTE DRIVE TO MIDDLETOWN, AND I-84. 20 MINUTES TO BETHEL WOODS MUSIC HALL (WOODSTOCK MUSIC MUSEUM, ETC.) 6 MIUTES TO THE NEW RESORTS CASINO, AND KARTRITE YEAROUND WATER PARK. VERY CLOSE TO HOLIDAY MOUNTAIN SKI HILL AND RECREATION PARK, STATE LAND, LAKES, RIVERS, AND SO MUCH MORE. ELECTRIC METER FOR #405 STILL IN PLACE, METER BOX INTACT ON 403 NO METER PRESENT. ONE WELL HAS BEEN LOCATED, SEPTIC UNKNOWN LOCATION OR TYPE.

Key facts

• 1.35 acre lot
• Built 1975
• Listed 84 days

🏢 Co-op / cooperative unit. The $155,000 price buys shares in the cooperative corporation, not the real estate itself — so it isn't comparable to a fee-simple sale price, and the cashflow / cap-rate / 1%-rule cards below (which assume you own the property and can rent it out) don't apply here. Expect board approval and a monthly maintenance fee on top of the price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($21k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.1% vs local median 2.6% in Rock Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#478 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living D+, amenities F.
• Monticello Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #577 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $155k implies a 1192% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $145,700 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.35%
• DSCR: 3.20
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $249,653
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: -37.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 63.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.56×
• Total profit: $198,099
• Equity at exit: $139,636

10-year hold

• IRR: 56.6%
• Equity multiple: 12.38×
• Total profit: $493,961
• Equity at exit: $301,131

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12775

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,231/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$735
• Net cashflow: $1,785

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,241

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
149 Beaver Lake Rd Rock Hill, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$3,500	$4.67	21d	1	0.71mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,000 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $155,000 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $155,000 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-03-26
    listed $155,000 Active 934-char remark

    Show marketing remark (934 chars)

    TWO SEPARATE LOTS (403 AND 405 ROCK HILL DRIVE) IN THIS SALE - .73 ACRE HAS A MANUFACTURED HOME AND .69 ACRE LOT (THE MANUFACTURED HOME WAS REMOVED). TOTAL TAXES FOR BOTH LOTS $1,900.00. LARGE SHED, LEVEL LAND, MOSTLY OPEN LAND, SOME TREES. THE EXISTING MANUFACTURED HOME IS HANDYMAN, TO BE REHABBED, OR REPLACED BY ANOTHER QUAILFYING MANUFACTURED OR NEW BUILD HOME. TOWN WILL REQUIRE PLANNING BOARD APPROVAL. LEVEL LOTS, 1/2 MILE TO DOWNTOWN ROCK HILL, I-86 (NYS 17). SHORT 6 MINUTE DRIVE TO MONTICELLO, 18 MINUTE DRIVE TO MIDDLETOWN, AND I-84. 20 MINUTES TO BETHEL WOODS MUSIC HALL (WOODSTOCK MUSIC MUSEUM, ETC.) 6 MIUTES TO THE NEW RESORTS CASINO, AND KARTRITE YEAROUND WATER PARK. VERY CLOSE TO HOLIDAY MOUNTAIN SKI HILL AND RECREATION PARK, STATE LAND, LAKES, RIVERS, AND SO MUCH MORE. ELECTRIC METER FOR #405 STILL IN PLACE, METER BOX INTACT ON 403 NO METER PRESENT. ONE WELL HAS BEEN LOCATED, SEPTIC UNKNOWN LOCATION OR TYPE.

16. 1984-09-28
    soldstatus $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,231 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,925 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: +$694/yr (+$58/mo · 56.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$1,231
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,360
• − Management: −$3,360
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $20,082
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,820
• After-tax cash flow: $16,600/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monticello Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619740
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $44,696
• Composite: 25.28/100
• National rank: #7491
• State rank: #577 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rock Hill

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #478
• US rank: #8452

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rock Hill, NY
• City population: 2,661
• Population (ZIP): 2,661

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 4% Scotch-Irish 4%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.12%
• Current HPI: 437.7751
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1191.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Listed $155,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1984-09-28 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,231 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.