31 Destino Way · Hot Springs Village, AR 71909

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,504 sqft · Other public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1976

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath end-unit townhouse in the heart of Hot Springs Village. With 1,504 square feet of comfortable living space, this home offers a flexible floor plan designed for both everyday living and weekend getaways. The main level features a spacious living room, dining area, kitchen, full bath, and a bedroom perfect for guests, a home office, or convenient single-level living. Upstairs you& apos; ll find two additional bedrooms, a second living area, full bath, and laundry room, providing plenty of space for family and visitors. A sliding glass door opens to a private wooden deck creating the perfect spot to enjoy your morning coffee, li

Key facts

• Quiet street
• Recent updates
• Central location

Tags

• END UNIT TOWNHOUSE
• PRIVATE WOODEN DECK
• RECENT UPDATES
• CENTRAL LOCATION
• QUIET STREET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $366 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.6% in Hot Springs Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#76 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Jessieville School District (rural): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #60 of 238 in AR (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 766 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 117 units permitted in Garland County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Garland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $145k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.81%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-246
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $29,605
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71909

• Home prices YoY: -10.9%
• Active inventory: 766
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,594 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $871/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $366

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,131

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $448	-5% $407	+0% $366	+5% $325	+10% $284
Rent	-10% $240	-5% $303	+0% $366	+5% $429	+10% $492
Rate	-1.0pp $439	-0.5pp $403	base $366	+0.5pp $328	+1.0pp $290

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
120 Emperado Way Hot Springs Village, AR	3.0	1.5	1296	$1,300	$1.00	24d	1	0.34mi
6 Tomino Way Hot Springs Village, AR	3.0	1.5	1549	$1,350	$0.87	14d	1	0.73mi
37 Sierra Dr Unit NA Hot Springs, AR	4.0	2.0	2098	$2,100	$1.00	14d	1	0.94mi
2 Dulzura Ln Hot Springs Village, AR	2.0	1.5	1120	$1,200	$1.07	45d	1	1.13mi
16 Dulzura Ln Unit 1 Hot Springs, AR	2.0	1.5	1120	$1,100	$0.98	14d	1	1.13mi
16 Malaga Cir Hot Springs Village, AR	2.0	2.0	1694	$1,850	$1.09	14d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   remarks 695-char remark
6. 2026-06-14
   listed $145,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $871 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $928 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: +$57/yr (+$5/mo · 6.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,126
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$871
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,530
• − Management: −$1,530
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $2,129
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$511
• After-tax cash flow: $3,878/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jessieville School District
• NCES district ID: 0507920
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,066
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5003
• State rank: #60 of 238 in AR

Livability — Hot Springs Village

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #8970

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hot Springs Village, AR
• County: Saline County · 77,216 people
• City population: 18,449
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• Population (ZIP): 18,449
• Household income: $75,433
• Rent vs Own: 12.0% rent · 88.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 207.0

Population outlook (Garland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 100,343 people
• By 2030: 101,880 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 104,804 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 107,292 · +6.9%
• By 2075: 113,182 · +12.8%
• By 2100: 112,247 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Garland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.2) · D 30.8% · R 67.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -36.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.2 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+34.1 2012: R+29.9 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.00%
• Current HPI: 195.9499
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+93.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $145,000 FSBO.com
• 2025-03-22 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-03-18 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-03-18 Listed $170,000 CARMLS
• 2025-03-18 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2025-03-17 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-01-04 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-01-04 Listed $170,000 CARMLS
• 2024-10-23 Listed $170,000 CARMLS
• 2023-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $871 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.