None · Three Rivers, TX 78071

$97,100

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1980 7,500 sqft lot $135/sqft · 27% above area Est $79k · 23% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming, updated home conveniently located in town, recently renovated in the last couple years. Call to set up a showing.

Key facts

• 7,500 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1980

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $97k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $292 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $97k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#118 in TX, #3,769 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Three Rivers ISD (rural): math 46% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #287 of 826 in TX (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Three Rivers El (math 52% / reading 42%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 318 students, 68% FRL); Three Rivers Jr/Sr H S (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #821 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 267 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 12 units permitted in Live Oak County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($671 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Live Oak County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $97k implies a 296% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,187 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.88%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $78,772
• List price: $97,100
• Delta: 23.27%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.82% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $34,569
• Equity at exit: $48,205

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.38×
• Total profit: $91,955
• Equity at exit: $78,036

Cash invested: $27,188 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78071

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,217 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$509
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,440/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $292

Break-even live

Break-even rent $848

Max offer price $97,100

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $347	-5% $319	+0% $292	+5% $264	+10% $237
Rent	-10% $196	-5% $244	+0% $292	+5% $340	+10% $388
Rate	-1.0pp $341	-0.5pp $316	base $292	+0.5pp $267	+1.0pp $241

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,275
• Closing costs: $2,913
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $97,100 Pending 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $97,100 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-12
   days on market $97,100 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $97,100 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $97,100 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $97,100 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $97,100 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $97,100 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $97,100 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $97,100 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $97,100 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-05-01
    listed $97,100 Active 139-char remark
13. 2025-07-14
    listed $97,100 Active
14. 2021-03-19
    historical
15. 2021-03-08
    status Pending
16. 2021-01-20
    status Active
17. 2021-01-08
    status Pending
18. 2020-12-18
    listed $85,000 Active
19. 2020-09-18
    soldstatus Sold
20. 2020-09-11
    soldstatus $24,500
21. 2020-07-20
    status Pending
22. 2020-07-09
    listed $24,500 New
23. 2012-05-16
    soldstatus
24. 2007-08-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,440 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,777 · $148/mo
• Expected delta: +$337/yr (+$28/mo · 23.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,603
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,439
• − Property taxes: −$1,440
• − Insurance: −$486
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,168
• − Management: −$1,168
• − Depreciation: −$2,825
• Taxable income: $2,078
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$499
• After-tax cash flow: $3,002/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Three Rivers ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842690
• Math proficiency: 46% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,554
• Composite: 37.6/100
• National rank: #4381
• State rank: #287 of 826 in TX

Livability — Three Rivers

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #118
• US rank: #3769

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Three Rivers, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,478

Population outlook (Live Oak County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,886 people
• By 2030: 14,793 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 16,633 · +19.8%
• By 2050: 18,511 · +33.3%
• By 2075: 23,859 · +71.8%
• By 2100: 26,396 · +90.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 56% White 33% Two or more races 14% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 45% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Live Oak

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.6) · D 14.9% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: -49.0pp · 2024: -69.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.6 2020: R+66.9 2016: R+63.5 2012: R+54.5 2008: R+49.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.82%
• Current HPI: 134.8309
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+296.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-14 Listed $97,100 CBMLS
• 2021-03-19 Delisted — CBMLS
• 2021-03-08 Pending — CBMLS
• 2021-01-20 Relisted — CBMLS
• 2021-01-08 Pending — CBMLS
• 2020-12-18 Listed $85,000 CBMLS
• 2020-09-18 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2020-09-11 Sold (Public Records) $24,500 Public Records
• 2020-07-20 Pending — LERA
• 2020-07-09 Listed $24,500 LERA
• 2012-05-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-08-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,440 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.