848 Illinois St · Warsaw, MO 65355

$224,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · Other public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1960 10,560 sqft lot $166/sqft · 56% above area Est $233k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming Home on Corner Lot with Space, Updates & Character! Welcome home to this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom property offering comfort, functionality, and room to grow! Featuring an optional 4th bedroom in the basement, this home provides flexible living space perfect for guests, a home office, or additional family needs. The inviting living room showcases a beautiful stone fireplace with a wood-burning insert, creating a warm and cozy focal point. The home boasts beautiful wood floors throughout. Enjoy peace of mind with updated windows throughout, bringing in natural light while improving efficiency. The kitchen features custom maple cabinets. Additional highlights includ

Key facts

• Wood floors
• Updated windows
• Stone fireplace

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• OPTIONAL 4TH BEDROOM
• STONE FIREPLACE
• WOOD FLOORS
• UPDATED WINDOWS
• CUSTOM MAPLE CABINETS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener; Basement parking access
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220V electrical service (includes 220V in laundry); Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residential property; Stone and vinyl siding exterior; Composition roof; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Construction: Stone and vinyl siding construction; Composition roof; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Enclosed porch; Fenced backyard with chain link, privacy, and wood fencing; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven and electric range; Vented exhaust fan
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Natural gas available; Radiant heating; Wood stove; Window air conditioning units; Ceiling fans for cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Window coverings and drapes; Wood-burning fireplace with insert (located in dining room and living room); Basement with partial, partially finished area and walk-out access
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $224k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-174 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (13.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (34.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $148k (34.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.3% in Warsaw — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#332 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Warsaw R-IX (rural): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #222 of 324 in MO (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 259 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Benton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $147,600 (34.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.33%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $232,983
• List price: $224,000
• Delta: -3.86%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $46,242
• Equity at exit: $133,110

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $146,647
• Equity at exit: $235,003

Cash invested: $62,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65355

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,476 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,175
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $864/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $-174

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,696

Max offer price $193,260

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-47	-5% $-111	+0% $-174	+5% $-237	+10% $-301
Rent	-10% $-291	-5% $-232	+0% $-174	+5% $-116	+10% $-57
Rate	-1.0pp $-61	-0.5pp $-117	base $-174	+0.5pp $-232	+1.0pp $-291

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,000
• Closing costs: $6,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $224,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $224,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $224,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $224,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $224,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $224,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $224,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $224,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $224,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $224,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $224,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $224,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $224,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $224,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $224,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    listed $224,000 Active 1009-char remark
17. 1992-10-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $864 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,173 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,308/yr (+$109/mo · 151.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,712
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,547
• − Property taxes: −$864
• − Insurance: −$1,120
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,417
• − Management: −$1,417
• − Depreciation: −$6,516
• Taxable loss: −$6,170
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,481
• After-tax cash flow: $-607/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warsaw R-IX
• NCES district ID: 2931070
• Math proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $33,160
• Composite: 29.53/100
• National rank: #6495
• State rank: #222 of 324 in MO

Livability — Warsaw

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #15201

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warsaw, MO
• Population (ZIP): 11,029

Population outlook (Benton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,355 people
• By 2030: 16,513 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 14,898 · -14.2%
• By 2050: 13,662 · -21.3%
• By 2075: 11,308 · -34.8%
• By 2100: 8,755 · -49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Benton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.1) · D 20.1% · R 79.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.8pp toward R · 2008: -22.3pp · 2024: -59.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.1 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+54.1 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+22.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Current HPI: 232.6924
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $224,000 WCAR
• 1992-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $864 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.