18717 Mill Villa Rd Spc 440 · Jamestown, CA 95327

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Manufactured public records · 75 Days on market

Built 1984 Est $95k · 27% over ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious Corner Lot Living in Mill Villa Estates! This well-designed 1,600+ square foot home features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a highly functional floor plan with both a living room and separate family room—ideal for entertaining, relaxing, or creating flexible living spaces to suit your lifestyle. The kitchen offers ample cabinetry, solid surface countertops, and a breakfast bar that opens to a generous dining area, making everyday living and gatherings feel easy and connected. The primary suite is privately positioned on one side of the home, creating a peaceful retreat with a soaking tub, separate shower, and dual vanity. Two additional bedrooms are located on the opposite side

Key facts

• Ample cabinetry
• Generous dining area
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• SOLID SURFACE COUNTERTOPS
• BREAKFAST BAR
• GENEROUS DINING AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Park name: Mill Villa Estates; Senior community; Pets allowed with limits and approval; Community clubhouse; Community pool and heated spa; Game room and activities available; RV storage

Exterior

• Parking: Covered carport for 2 or more vehicles
• Utilities: Individual gas meter
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Double-wide mobile home
• Construction: Wood siding
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio/porch; Low-maintenance yard; Corner lot; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Free-standing range (oven); Refrigerator; Disposal; Breakfast bar; Solid-surface countertops
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (street level)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with double vanity, stall shower, sunken tub, solid-surface counters, split bath layout, and window; Other bathroom(s) with shower-over-tub, solid-surface counters, and window
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (propane); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Solid-surface counters; Den; Dining area; Window coverings; No steps to entry / main entry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $634 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 4.5% in Jamestown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#980 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B; Watch: housing C-, cost of living D, schools F.
• Sonora Union High (town): math 21% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #243 of 517 in CA (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $112,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.63%
• DSCR: 2.01
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $94,640
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18717 Mill Villa Rd #250	0.00mi	3/2.0	944 (-9%)	3mo	$85,500	$91	82
18717 Mill Villa #101 #101	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (0%)	18mo	$144,000	$138	80
18717 Mill Villa Rd #402 #402	0.00mi	3/2.0	960 (-8%)	12mo	$89,000	$93	77
18717 Mill Villa Rd #421 #421	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-8%)	9mo	$60,000	$63	75
18717 Mill Villa Rd #156	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,135 (+9%)	6mo	$72,000	$63	75
18725 Hwy 108 #71 #71	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+11%)	22mo	$59,000	$51	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $20,861
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.08×
• Total profit: $69,931
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95327

• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,699 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $351/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $634

Break-even live

Break-even rent $897

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $702	-5% $668	+0% $634	+5% $600	+10% $566
Rent	-10% $499	-5% $566	+0% $634	+5% $701	+10% $768
Rate	-1.0pp $694	-0.5pp $664	base $634	+0.5pp $603	+1.0pp $571

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 64 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 58 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 57 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $120,000 Active 56 DOM
17. 2026-05-21
    price $120,000
18. 2026-04-04
    listed $140,000 Active
19. 2026-03-05
    historical
20. 2025-12-03
    listed Active
21. 2025-11-24
    historical
22. 2025-09-10
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $351 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $912 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$561/yr (+$47/mo · 159.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,388
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$351
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,631
• − Management: −$1,631
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $5,961
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,431
• After-tax cash flow: $6,172/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sonora Union High
• NCES district ID: 0637260
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,252
• Composite: 33.41/100
• National rank: #5470
• State rank: #243 of 517 in CA

Livability — Jamestown

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #980
• US rank: #24642

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime B Employment F Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jamestown, CA
• Population (ZIP): 8,799

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -129.96%
• Current HPI: 100.2616
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-14.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $120,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-04 Listed $140,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-05 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-12-03 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-11-24 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-09-10 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $351 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.