Canyon Villa Plan · Mesa, AZ 85209

$117,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 748 sqft · Manufactured · 255 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

55+ age qualified community. Come and get your piece of the action happening here at Monte Vista Village Resort. This 55+ community has some amazing amenities, with an activities director keeping you active all year round. Whether you're here for the winter season or permanently, we have something for everyone! This Canyon Villa has 748 square feet of living space, 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms. Master bathroom has full sized shower, dual sinks and lots of room. Front guest room has it's own bathroom with stall shower, single vanity, and washer/dryer hookups. Dining and livingroom is spacious and the kitchen has lots of cabinetry for the culinarian in you. Give us a call at 480-357-1323 to book your viewing!

Key facts

• Listed 255 days

🏗️ New construction. The $117,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $96,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $117k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $117k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.6% vs local median 3.4% in Mesa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#6 in AZ, #2,034 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D.
• Gilbert Unified District (4239) (suburban): math 49% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #38 of 249 in AZ (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 165 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($664 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 0.5% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 255 days — a 12% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $102,960 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 255 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.11%
• DSCR: 3.27
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $96,000
• List price: $117,000
• Delta: 21.88%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8865 E Baseline Rd #1232	0.32mi	2/2.0	748 (0%)	2mo	$96,000	$128	84
8865 E Baseline Rd #1218	0.32mi	2/2.0	748 (0%)	16mo	$135,000	$180	72
8865 E Baseline Rd #441	0.31mi	1/1.0 (-1)	656 (-12%)	6mo	$29,950	$46	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.44% appreciation · 0.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.65×
• Total profit: $71,296
• Equity at exit: $34,990

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.77×
• Total profit: $155,151
• Equity at exit: $48,265

Cash invested: $26,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85209

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,289 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$503
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$120 /mo · $1,440/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $1,145

Break-even live

Break-even rent $840

Max offer price $96,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,211	-5% $1,178	+0% $1,145	+5% $1,112	+10% $1,078
Rent	-10% $964	-5% $1,054	+0% $1,145	+5% $1,235	+10% $1,326
Rate	-1.0pp $1,193	-0.5pp $1,169	base $1,145	+0.5pp $1,120	+1.0pp $1,095

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,000
• Closing costs: $2,880
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8865 E Baseline Rd #405 Mesa, AZ	2.0	1.5	619	$1,900	$3.07	44d	1	0.34mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #1129 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	748	$3,200	$4.28	6d	1	0.34mi
8915 E Guadalupe Rd Mesa, AZ	1.0	1.0	616	$1,164	$1.89	44d	1	0.80mi
8433 E Guadalupe Rd Mesa, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,772	$2.96	1d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $117,000 Active 255 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $117,000 Active 254 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $117,000 Active 253 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $117,000 Active 252 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $117,000 Active 250 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $117,000 Active 246 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $117,000 Active 245 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $117,000 Active 244 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $117,000 Active 241 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $117,000 Active 240 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $117,000 Active 239 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $117,000 Active 238 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $117,000 Active 237 DOM
14. 2026-03-17
    status Active 711-char remark

    Show marketing remark (711 chars)

    55+ age qualified community. Come and get your piece of the action happening here at Monte Vista Village Resort. This 55+ community has some amazing amenities, with an activities director keeping you active all year round. Whether you're here for the winter season or permanently, we have something for everyone! This Canyon Villa has 748 square feet of living space, 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms. Master bathroom has full sized shower, dual sinks and lots of room. Front guest room has it's own bathroom with stall shower, single vanity, and washer/dryer hookups. Dining and livingroom is spacious and the kitchen has lots of cabinetry for the culinarian in you. Give us a call at 480-357-1323 to book your viewing!

15. 2025-12-11
    historical 711-char remark

    Show marketing remark (711 chars)

    55+ age qualified community. Come and get your piece of the action happening here at Monte Vista Village Resort. This 55+ community has some amazing amenities, with an activities director keeping you active all year round. Whether you're here for the winter season or permanently, we have something for everyone! This Canyon Villa has 748 square feet of living space, 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms. Master bathroom has full sized shower, dual sinks and lots of room. Front guest room has it's own bathroom with stall shower, single vanity, and washer/dryer hookups. Dining and livingroom is spacious and the kitchen has lots of cabinetry for the culinarian in you. Give us a call at 480-357-1323 to book your viewing!

16. 2025-10-30
    status Active 711-char remark

    Show marketing remark (711 chars)

    55+ age qualified community. Come and get your piece of the action happening here at Monte Vista Village Resort. This 55+ community has some amazing amenities, with an activities director keeping you active all year round. Whether you're here for the winter season or permanently, we have something for everyone! This Canyon Villa has 748 square feet of living space, 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms. Master bathroom has full sized shower, dual sinks and lots of room. Front guest room has it's own bathroom with stall shower, single vanity, and washer/dryer hookups. Dining and livingroom is spacious and the kitchen has lots of cabinetry for the culinarian in you. Give us a call at 480-357-1323 to book your viewing!

17. 2025-08-28
    historical 711-char remark

    Show marketing remark (711 chars)

    55+ age qualified community. Come and get your piece of the action happening here at Monte Vista Village Resort. This 55+ community has some amazing amenities, with an activities director keeping you active all year round. Whether you're here for the winter season or permanently, we have something for everyone! This Canyon Villa has 748 square feet of living space, 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms. Master bathroom has full sized shower, dual sinks and lots of room. Front guest room has it's own bathroom with stall shower, single vanity, and washer/dryer hookups. Dining and livingroom is spacious and the kitchen has lots of cabinetry for the culinarian in you. Give us a call at 480-357-1323 to book your viewing!

18. 2025-06-20
    price $117,000 711-char remark

    Show marketing remark (711 chars)

    55+ age qualified community. Come and get your piece of the action happening here at Monte Vista Village Resort. This 55+ community has some amazing amenities, with an activities director keeping you active all year round. Whether you're here for the winter season or permanently, we have something for everyone! This Canyon Villa has 748 square feet of living space, 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms. Master bathroom has full sized shower, dual sinks and lots of room. Front guest room has it's own bathroom with stall shower, single vanity, and washer/dryer hookups. Dining and livingroom is spacious and the kitchen has lots of cabinetry for the culinarian in you. Give us a call at 480-357-1323 to book your viewing!

19. 2025-05-24
    price $115,900
20. 2025-05-01
    listed $124,500 Active 711-char remark

    Show marketing remark (711 chars)

    55+ age qualified community. Come and get your piece of the action happening here at Monte Vista Village Resort. This 55+ community has some amazing amenities, with an activities director keeping you active all year round. Whether you're here for the winter season or permanently, we have something for everyone! This Canyon Villa has 748 square feet of living space, 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms. Master bathroom has full sized shower, dual sinks and lots of room. Front guest room has it's own bathroom with stall shower, single vanity, and washer/dryer hookups. Dining and livingroom is spacious and the kitchen has lots of cabinetry for the culinarian in you. Give us a call at 480-357-1323 to book your viewing!

21. 2025-04-09
    price $124,500
22. 2024-09-09
    price $144,900
23. 2024-03-14
    listed $149,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,466
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,377
• − Property taxes: −$1,440
• − Insurance: −$480
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,197
• − Management: −$2,197
• − Depreciation: −$2,793
• Taxable income: $12,982
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,116
• After-tax cash flow: $10,622/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms. It is ready for a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers
• Both New flooring in living areas — Improves aesthetics and can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers ↑
• Both New flooring in living areas — Improves aesthetics and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilbert Unified District (4239)
• NCES district ID: 0403400
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $74,715
• Composite: 45.55/100
• National rank: #2600
• State rank: #38 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Mesa

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2034

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime D Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mesa, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 555,266
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 43,150
• Household income: $84,432
• Rent vs Own: 26.9% rent · 73.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 972.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.44%
• Current HPI: 277.6198
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.54%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-21.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-12-11 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-30 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-08-28 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-06-20 Price Changed $117,000 Zillow
• 2025-05-24 Price Changed $115,900 Zillow
• 2025-05-01 Listed $124,500 Zillow
• 2025-04-09 Price Changed $124,500 Zillow
• 2024-09-09 Price Changed $144,900 Zillow
• 2024-03-14 Listed $149,900 Zillow