111 W Cofield St · Aurora, MO 65605

$25,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 628 sqft · Other public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1910 7,405 sqft lot ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

If I were to say to you FULL rehab on this home, I cannot stress enough that this home is a FULL rehab - It is for investors/rehabbers this is not a home to be lived in, yet. If you've made it this far, this home is priced for a great return on your investment. Don't wait to see it, don't procrastinate, deals like this don't show up very often anymore.

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Built 1910
• Listed 26 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Asphalt road access
• Exterior features: Deck

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No central heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: No fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $523 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($888 rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $25k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 31.4% vs local median 3.9% in Aurora — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#710 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Aurora R-VIII (town): math 30% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #244 of 324 in MO (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Aurora Jr. High (math 23% / reading 27%, grade F, #321 of 391 statewide, top 82%, 283 students, 62% FRL); Aurora High (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #218 of 521 statewide, top 45%, 573 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 137 active listings in the ZIP; 67 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (35 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lawrence County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($25k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $24,625 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 89.73%
• DSCR: 4.99
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 90.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.19×
• Total profit: $29,303
• Equity at exit: $3,728

10-year hold

• IRR: 93.3%
• Equity multiple: 10.79×
• Total profit: $68,511
• Equity at exit: $2,162

Cash invested: $7,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65605

• Home prices YoY: -4.5%
• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $888 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $438/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$186
• Net cashflow: $523

Break-even live

Break-even rent $225

Max offer price $25,000

Occupancy floor 36%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,250
• Closing costs: $750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-03
   listed $25,000 Active
3. 2025-09-29
   listed $35,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $438 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $438 · $37/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,655
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,400
• − Property taxes: −$438
• − Insurance: −$125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$852
• − Management: −$852
• − Depreciation: −$727
• Taxable income: $6,259
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,502
• After-tax cash flow: $4,779/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aurora R-VIII
• NCES district ID: 2904020
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $37,036
• Composite: 27.84/100
• National rank: #6883
• State rank: #244 of 324 in MO

Livability — Aurora

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #710
• US rank: #22927

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aurora, MO
• Population (ZIP): 11,611

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,142 people
• By 2030: 36,212 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 34,080 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 31,621 · -14.9%
• By 2075: 25,987 · -30.0%
• By 2100: 20,151 · -45.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.8) · D 17.6% · R 81.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.8pp toward R · 2008: -37.1pp · 2024: -63.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.8 2020: R+62.6 2016: R+61.1 2012: R+47.0 2008: R+37.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.62%
• Current HPI: 267.2335
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-28.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-04-03 Listed $25,000 SOMO
• 2025-09-29 Listed $35,000 SOMO

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $438 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.