406 Saddle Club Way · Princeton, TX 75407

$275,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,622 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 2020 6,273 sqft lot $170/sqft · 13% below area Est $315k · 13% under $52/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Built in 2020 in Princeton’s Winchester Crossing community, this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers functional single-story living with fully paid-off solar panels at closing for added energy efficiency. Situated on a spacious interior lot, the home features an open-concept layout with luxury vinyl flooring throughout the main living areas, abundant natural light, and a split-bedroom floor plan with the primary suite separated from secondary bedrooms for additional privacy. The kitchen includes granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, decorative lighting, and a large center island with seating and prep space. The primary suite offers a walk-in closet and ensuite bat

Key facts

• 6,273 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Annual association fee (management fees included); Neighborhood management; Community pool; Community park

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener and front-facing garage; Covered parking for 2; Driveway; 2-car single door; No carport spaces
• Security: Burglar alarm; Security system; Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detector(s)
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity connected; Individual gas meter; Individual water meter; Underground utilities; Community mailbox; Solar electric system / solar
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; Built in 2020; Smart home features
• Construction: Wood construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Covered patio/porch areas; Landscaped yard with sprinklers; Large backyard with grass; Few trees; Interior lot; Subdivision setting; Back yard wood fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite countertops; Built-in cabinets; Pantry; Water line to refrigerator; Dishwasher; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on main level); Primary bedroom with walk-in closet (main level); Other bedrooms on main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with dual sinks and built-in cabinets; Additional bathroom with garden tub and built-in cabinets
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Decorative lighting; High-speed internet available; Integrated pest management; One living area; One dining area; 9 total rooms; One-level layout
• Laundry & utility: Separate utility room; Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-309 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $220k (19.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#969 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Harper El (math 50% / reading 41%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 436 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1409 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,381 (19.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.82%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $315,445
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -12.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
408 Rawhide Way	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,664 (+3%)	2mo	$275,000	$165	91
405 Saddle Club Way	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (-5%)	0mo	$275,000	$179	84
702 Stampede Ln	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,592 (-2%)	2mo	$298,900	$188	76
624 Willow View Way	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,643 (+1%)	1mo	$295,000	$180	71
516 Smokey Trl	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,794 (+11%)	4mo	$294,900	$164	68
408 Stampede Ln	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,794 (+11%)	2mo	$298,000	$166	68
611 Saddle Club Way	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,828 (+13%)	3mo	$280,000	$153	65
906 Honey Maple St	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,652 (+2%)	1mo	$265,000	$160	63
705 Range Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,820 (+12%)	3mo	$294,900	$162	62
1002 Dry Gulch Way	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,454 (-10%)	2mo	$265,000	$182	59
1100 Western Way	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,622 (0%)	4mo	$275,000	$170	58
719 Stampede Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,454 (-10%)	2mo	$295,000	$203	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-70,676
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -46.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.45×
• Total profit: $-111,689
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1409
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,240 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$470 /mo · $5,643/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$52
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $-309

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,632

Max offer price $220,381

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-154	-5% $-231	+0% $-309	+5% $-387	+10% $-465
Rent	-10% $-486	-5% $-398	+0% $-309	+5% $-221	+10% $-132
Rate	-1.0pp $-171	-0.5pp $-239	base $-309	+0.5pp $-380	+1.0pp $-453

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
507 Saddle Club Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2014	$2,090	$1.04	13d	1	0.07mi
412 Gunsmoke Trl Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2193	$2,000	$0.91	44d	1	0.14mi
420 Gunsmoke Trl Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1865	$1,975	$1.06	8d	1	0.15mi
604 Saddle Club Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1592	$2,050	$1.29	44d	1	0.18mi
611 Saddle Club Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,100	$1.15	44d	1	0.22mi
408 Stampede Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,925	$1.07	44d	1	0.25mi
603 Smokey Trl Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1622	$2,100	$1.29	19d	1	0.25mi
513 Spur Rdg Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1622	$2,200	$1.36	18d	1	0.26mi
717 Rawhide Way Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2193	$2,500	$1.14	44d	1	0.36mi
1501 Hidden Bluff Xing Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,200	$1.23	13d	1	0.38mi
503 Willow View Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2014	$2,149	$1.07	8d	1	0.38mi
627 Willow View Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1664	$2,000	$1.20	44d	1	0.46mi
603 Calm Springs Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2039	$2,250	$1.10	12d	1	0.48mi
720 Willow View Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2013	$2,250	$1.12	25d	1	0.50mi
1412 Chestnut Cove Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,000	$1.22	21d	1	0.54mi
1103 Wagon Wheel Way Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2193	$2,500	$1.14	44d	1	0.56mi
1306 Colonial Bluff Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2185	$2,375	$1.09	8d	1	0.58mi
1306 Colonial Bluff Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2185	$2,375	$1.09	0d	1	0.58mi
204 Marsh Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1722	$1,700	$0.99	44d	1	0.58mi
203 Marsh Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1586	$1,575	$0.99	8d	1	0.59mi
220 Marsh Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1722	$1,785	$1.04	6d	1	0.62mi
468 Pebble Brook Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2174	$2,250	$1.03	13d	1	0.62mi
1403 Forever Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2038	$2,250	$1.10	4d	1	0.64mi
1006 Honey Maple St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1842	$1,950	$1.06	44d	1	0.65mi
229 Marsh Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1550	$1,650	$1.06	25d	1	0.65mi
1008 Honey Maple St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1825	$1,995	$1.09	25d	1	0.66mi
1417 Forever Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1937	$2,100	$1.08	18d	1	0.66mi
303 Stone Ct Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1586	$1,700	$1.07	0d	1	0.66mi
303 Stone Ct Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1586	$1,700	$1.07	25d	1	0.66mi
315 Stone Ct Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1573	$2,100	$1.34	44d	1	0.69mi
780 Evergreen St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,069	$1.13	44d	1	0.80mi
843 Ozark Path Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1249	$2,100	$1.68	44d	1	0.81mi
366 Lake Erie Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1824	$1,990	$1.09	25d	1	0.81mi
445 Grenada Lake Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2029	$2,050	$1.01	6d	1	0.82mi
810 Silverbell St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1602	$1,749	$1.09	8d	1	0.83mi
1525 Farm to Market Road 982 Princeton, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1551	$2,938	$1.89	0d	53	0.84mi
818 Table Rock St Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2029	$2,349	$1.16	3d	1	0.85mi
865 Table Rock St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1563	$2,050	$1.31	23d	1	0.85mi
815 Evergreen St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1835	$1,999	$1.09	44d	1	0.86mi
715 Mulberry Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,695	$1.31	25d	1	0.86mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $52 · $624/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $275,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $275,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $275,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-04-28
    listed $275,000 Active 1043-char remark
17. 2026-04-01
    historical $2,000
18. 2025-12-24
    price $2,000
19. 2025-08-13
    price $2,050
20. 2025-08-01
    price $2,300
21. 2025-07-18
    listed $2,400
22. 2024-08-13
    historical $2,100
23. 2024-07-19
    listed $2,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,643 · $470/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,643 · $470/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,883
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$5,643
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,151
• − Management: −$2,151
• − HOA: −$624
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$8,465
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,032
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,679/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

Livability — Princeton

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #969
• US rank: #17215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Princeton, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 34,171
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 368.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+12995.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Listed $275,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-01 Rental Removed $2,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-24 Price Changed $2,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $2,050 NTREIS
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $2,300 NTREIS
• 2025-07-18 Listed for Rent $2,400 NTREIS
• 2024-08-13 Rental Removed $2,100 NTREIS
• 2024-07-19 Listed for Rent $2,100 NTREIS

Property tax history

+44.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,643 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.