20100 N 78th Pl #3090 · Scottsdale, AZ 85255

$414,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,286 sqft · Condo public records · 161 Days on market

Built 2001 $323/sqft · at area comps Est $415k · at est. $399/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this three-bedroom, two-bath residence located in the highly sought-after Edge gated community of Grayhawk. This rarely available floor plan has been very lightly lived in and offers exceptional privacy along with unobstructed balcony views. The home features dedicated office space, in-unit laundry, and a reserved carport parking space. Recent upgrades include a new HVAC system, water heaters, and brand-new kitchen appliances. Residents enjoy an impressive array of amenities, including four resort-style pools, two fitness centers, three spas, gas grills, outdoor fireplaces, two theaters, concierge services, a resident chef, and a full calendar of social events.

Key facts

• In-unit laundry
• New water heaters
• New hvac system

Tags

• UNOBSTRUCTED BALCONY VIEWS
• DEDICATED OFFICE SPACE
• IN-UNIT LAUNDRY
• RESERVED CARPORT PARKING
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• NEW WATER HEATERS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $415k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $416 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $415k).
• Recommended offer: $365k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.5% in Scottsdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#4 in AZ, #1,756 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 734 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($141k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.6% appreciation + 4.4% rent growth), your $116k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($365k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $166k; list at $415k implies a 149% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $365,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.30%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $415,349
• List price: $414,900
• Delta: -0.11%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.64% appreciation · 4.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $143,565
• Equity at exit: $251,370

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.59×
• Total profit: $417,282
• Equity at exit: $447,902

Cash invested: $116,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85255

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 734
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,186 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,176
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,712/yr
• Insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$399
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$879
• Net cashflow: $416

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,659

Max offer price $414,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $651	-5% $534	+0% $416	+5% $299	+10% $181
Rent	-10% $86	-5% $251	+0% $416	+5% $582	+10% $747
Rate	-1.0pp $625	-0.5pp $522	base $416	+0.5pp $309	+1.0pp $199

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,725
• Closing costs: $12,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20100 N 78th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1043	$4,650	$4.46	0d	17	0.04mi
20100 N 78th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1202	$3,925	$3.26	45d	5	0.04mi
20100 N 78th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1043	$4,650	$4.46	21d	15	0.04mi
19777 N 76th St Unit 1546393P Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1323	$3,109	$2.35	9d	1	0.14mi
19777 N 76th St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.5	1324	$5,000	$3.78	11d	19	0.19mi
19777 N 76th St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1293	$8,000	$6.19	45d	9	0.19mi
19777 N 76th St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.5	1324	$6,900	$5.21	0d	16	0.19mi
20121 N 76th St #2043 Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1854	$3,550	$1.91	45d	1	0.21mi
20121 N 76th St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1453	$3,000	$2.06	0d	2	0.21mi
19700 N 76th St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1633	$6,500	$3.98	0d	13	0.27mi
19700 N 76th St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1633	$6,500	$3.98	45d	7	0.27mi
7729 E Tailspin Ln Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1634	$3,400	$2.08	9d	1	0.37mi
19700 N 76th St Unit 1546077P Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1722	$3,226	$1.87	16d	1	0.39mi
7340 E Legacy Blvd Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1045	$2,380	$2.28	0d	21	0.54mi
20458 N 78th Way Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	2.0	1834	$4,500	$2.45	25d	1	0.54mi
7789 E Journey Ln Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1634	$4,700	$2.88	45d	1	0.61mi
7355 E Thompson Peak Pkwy Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1045	$2,510	$2.40	0d	40	0.62mi
20802 N Grayhawk Dr Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	2030	$8,000	$3.94	45d	4	0.86mi
19550 N Grayhawk Dr Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.5	1985	$7,000	$3.53	0d	2	0.88mi
19550 N Grayhawk Dr Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.5	1814	$7,150	$3.94	45d	4	0.88mi
19550 N Grayhawk Dr Unit 1545664P Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1313	$2,159	$1.64	15d	1	0.94mi
7220 E Mayo Blvd Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	1.0–3.0	1418	$9,908	$6.98	0d	86	0.95mi
19475 N Grayhawk Dr Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2155	$5,598	$2.60	45d	5	1.15mi
8122 E Theresa Dr Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1854	$3,395	$1.83	45d	1	1.17mi
8146 E Theresa Dr Unit 1558647P Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	2.0	1851	$4,165	$2.25	0d	1	1.18mi
17777 N Scottsdale Rd Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	942	$3,399	$3.61	0d	21	1.19mi
7435 E Rustling Pass Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1804	$8,500	$4.71	45d	1	1.21mi
8158 E Rita Dr Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1854	$3,200	$1.73	9d	1	1.29mi
20750 N 87th St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1930	$7,500	$3.89	25d	8	1.31mi
20750 N 87th St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1930	$7,500	$3.89	0d	8	1.31mi
20750 N 87th St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1930	$7,500	$3.89	23d	9	1.31mi
21546 N 72nd Way Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	2.0	1677	$3,400	$2.03	45d	1	1.37mi
7900 E Princess Dr Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–3.0	2.0	1336	$3,175	$2.38	0d	24	1.41mi
6800 E Mayo Blvd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	985	$2,629	$2.67	0d	20	1.45mi
7500 E Deer Valley Rd Scottsdale, AZ	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.0	2110	$2,300	$1.09	5d	2	1.46mi
8941 E Maple Dr Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1517	$4,375	$2.88	45d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $399 · $4,788/yr
• Likely covers: watergaspoolgymdoormansecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $414,900 Active 161 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $414,900 Active 158 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $414,900 Active 157 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $414,900 Active 156 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $414,900 Active 155 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $414,900 Active 153 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $414,900 Active 152 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $414,900 Active 149 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $414,900 Active 148 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $414,900 Active 147 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $414,900 Active 144 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $414,900 Active 143 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $414,900 Active 142 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $414,900 Active 141 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $414,900 Active 140 DOM
16. 2026-02-04
    price $414,900 680-char remark

    Show marketing remark (680 chars)

    Welcome to this three-bedroom, two-bath residence located in the highly sought-after Edge gated community of Grayhawk. This rarely available floor plan has been very lightly lived in and offers exceptional privacy along with unobstructed balcony views. The home features dedicated office space, in-unit laundry, and a reserved carport parking space. Recent upgrades include a new HVAC system, water heaters, and brand-new kitchen appliances. Residents enjoy an impressive array of amenities, including four resort-style pools, two fitness centers, three spas, gas grills, outdoor fireplaces, two theaters, concierge services, a resident chef, and a full calendar of social events.

17. 2026-01-11
    listed $429,900 Active 680-char remark

    Show marketing remark (680 chars)

    Welcome to this three-bedroom, two-bath residence located in the highly sought-after Edge gated community of Grayhawk. This rarely available floor plan has been very lightly lived in and offers exceptional privacy along with unobstructed balcony views. The home features dedicated office space, in-unit laundry, and a reserved carport parking space. Recent upgrades include a new HVAC system, water heaters, and brand-new kitchen appliances. Residents enjoy an impressive array of amenities, including four resort-style pools, two fitness centers, three spas, gas grills, outdoor fireplaces, two theaters, concierge services, a resident chef, and a full calendar of social events.

18. 2025-07-01
    historical
19. 2025-06-18
    price $459,900
20. 2025-02-26
    price $479,000
21. 2024-12-04
    status Active
22. 2024-12-04
    price $499,000
23. 2024-11-04
    historical
24. 2024-05-27
    listed $515,000 Active
25. 2010-10-21
    soldstatus $166,500 Closed
26. 2010-10-07
    status Pending
27. 2010-10-06
    listed $166,500 Active
28. 2009-05-22
    soldstatus $12,000,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,712 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,738 · $228/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,027/yr (+$86/mo · 60.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,228
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,241
• − Property taxes: −$1,712
• − Insurance: −$2,074
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,018
• − Management: −$4,018
• − HOA: −$4,788
• − Depreciation: −$12,070
• Taxable loss: −$1,694
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$406
• After-tax cash flow: $5,403/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
• NCES district ID: 0405930
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,106
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4316
• State rank: #56 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Scottsdale

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1756

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Scottsdale, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 290,846
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 45,346
• Household income: $140,616
• Rent vs Own: 26.9% rent · 73.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1034.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.64%
• Current HPI: 330.9931
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.42%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-96.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $414,900 ARMLS
• 2026-01-11 Listed $429,900 ARMLS
• 2025-07-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-06-18 Price Changed $459,900 ARMLS
• 2025-02-26 Price Changed $479,000 ARMLS
• 2024-12-04 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2024-12-04 Price Changed $499,000 ARMLS
• 2024-11-04 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-05-27 Listed $515,000 ARMLS
• 2010-10-21 Sold (MLS) $166,500 ARMLS
• 2010-10-07 Pending — ARMLS
• 2010-10-06 Listed $166,500 ARMLS
• 2009-05-22 Sold (Public Records) $12,000,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,712 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.