5445 N Buffalo Cir · Willis, TX 77378

$177,500

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,738 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 2007 6,507 sqft lot Est $233k · 24% under ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see this recently renovated Caddo Village charmer !! Hurry, It won't last long !!!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Tile flooring
• Abundant cabinetry

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• LAMINATE WOOD FLOORING
• TILE FLOORING
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY
• GENEROUS COUNTER SPACE
• CENTER ISLAND

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Indian Forest HOA; Curbs in the community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2007; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision; Concrete road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Garbage disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 15 x 12); Three additional bedrooms on the second floor (approx. 11 x 11, 11 x 10, 10 x 10)
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Primary bathroom with separate shower and tub; Pantry; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $178k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $316 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $178k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lynn Lucas Middle (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 971 students, 74% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 721 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,850 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.63%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $232,892
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5445 N Buffalo Cir	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,738 (0%)	1mo	$177,500	$102	100
13604 Bighorn Trl	0.51mi	4/2.5	1,738 (0%)	1mo	$239,000	$138	76
13669 Running Bear Dr	0.48mi	4/2.5	1,738 (0%)	5mo	$225,000	$129	73
5453 N Buffalo Cir	0.02mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,498 (-14%)	3mo	$239,000	$160	69
14105 Broken Arrow Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,576 (-9%)	6mo	$169,000	$107	62
13744 Bighorn Trl	0.17mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,498 (-14%)	4mo	$200,000	$134	60
14018 Broken Arrow Dr	0.29mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,518 (-13%)	1mo	$185,500	$122	60
14088 Running Bear Dr	0.24mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,498 (-14%)	5mo	$209,000	$140	57
13729 Bighorn Trl	0.17mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,498 (-14%)	9mo	$175,000	$117	56
13730 Running Bear Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,507 (-13%)	1mo	$225,000	$149	54
13693 Bighorn Trl	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,507 (-13%)	9mo	$199,950	$133	52
13653 Bighorn Trl	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,507 (-13%)	6mo	$210,000	$139	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-12,721
• Equity at exit: $26,466

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,223
• Equity at exit: $15,347

Cash invested: $49,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77378

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 721
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,097 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$931
• Tax from tax record: −$336 /mo · $4,033/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,697

Max offer price $177,500

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $416	-5% $366	+0% $316	+5% $266	+10% $215
Rent	-10% $150	-5% $233	+0% $316	+5% $399	+10% $482
Rate	-1.0pp $405	-0.5pp $361	base $316	+0.5pp $270	+1.0pp $223

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,375
• Closing costs: $5,325
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14107 Running Bear Dr Willis, TX	4.0	2.0	1328	$1,800	$1.36	25d	1	0.16mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-08
   price $177,500
3. 2026-03-10
   price $187,500
4. 2026-02-10
   status Active
5. 2026-02-03
   historical
6. 2026-01-28
   listed $197,500 Active
7. 2025-02-06
   soldstatus
8. 2025-02-04
   soldstatus Sold 87-char remark

   Show marketing remark (87 chars)

   Come see this recently renovated Caddo Village charmer !! Hurry, It won't last long !!!

9. 2025-01-09
   status Pending 87-char remark

   Show marketing remark (87 chars)

   Come see this recently renovated Caddo Village charmer !! Hurry, It won't last long !!!

10. 2025-01-06
    status Option Pending 87-char remark

    Show marketing remark (87 chars)

    Come see this recently renovated Caddo Village charmer !! Hurry, It won't last long !!!

11. 2024-12-28
    price $233,500 87-char remark

    Show marketing remark (87 chars)

    Come see this recently renovated Caddo Village charmer !! Hurry, It won't last long !!!

12. 2024-12-19
    listed $226,000 Active 87-char remark

    Show marketing remark (87 chars)

    Come see this recently renovated Caddo Village charmer !! Hurry, It won't last long !!!

13. 2024-12-19
    historical

    Show marketing remark (87 chars)

    Come see this recently renovated Caddo Village charmer !! Hurry, It won't last long !!!

14. 2024-12-10
    listed $239,000 Active
15. 2024-12-10
    historical
16. 2024-10-19
    listed $249,000 Active
17. 2024-08-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,033 · $336/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,033 · $336/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,165
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,943
• − Property taxes: −$4,033
• − Insurance: −$888
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,013
• − Management: −$2,013
• − Depreciation: −$5,164
• Taxable income: $1,112
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$267
• After-tax cash flow: $3,523/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,629
• Household income: $71,143
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.25%
• Current HPI: 261.9673
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-28.7% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $177,500 HARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $187,500 HARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $197,500 HARMLS
• 2025-02-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-02-04 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-01-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-01-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-12-28 Price Changed $233,500 HARMLS
• 2024-12-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-12-19 Listed $226,000 HARMLS
• 2024-12-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-12-10 Listed $239,000 HARMLS
• 2024-10-19 Listed $249,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,033 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.