1680 Lands End Rd · Orient, NY 11957

$2,195,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,359 sqft · SingleFamily · 132 Days on market

Built 2007 0.93 ac lot $653/sqft · 27% above area Est $1727k · 27% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Treat yourself to the astounding panoramic waterviews afforded by this feature-rich luxury home set in the most-easterly enclave on Long Island’s beautiful North Fork. From the full-length living-level deck, Long Island Sound and the Connecticut shoreline beckon to the north; east and south are striking views of Plum Island and Gardiners Bay. Passing through stone pillars and an arched privacy gate, you will first behold this handsome spectacularly built home over the length of the vast brick driveway. Designed and crafted without regard to expense, the home’s deft use of space and robust construction maximize the remarkable water views, provide gracious living spaces, and yield exceptional pride of ownership. Lavish with amenities, including three fireplaces, Viking chef’s kitchen, and a cherry-panelled elevator, it is set on tastefully landscaped grounds of nearly an acre, with ample room for a large pool and tennis. Come home soon!

Key facts

• Water views
• Panoramic views
• Private gated home

Tags

• PRIVATE GATED HOME
• PANORAMIC VIEWS
• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• VIKING PROFESSIONAL APPLIANCES
• VENETIAN GOLD MARBLE FLOORS
• WATER VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $2.19M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11k ($130k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($31k rent vs $2.19M).
• Recommended offer: $1.93M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,080 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Oysterponds Union Free School District (rural): math 30% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #506 of 755 in NY (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $235k of equity ($15k loan paydown + $220k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $615k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$377k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.93M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $205k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $1.44M; list at $2.19M implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,931,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.20%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,726,984
• List price: $2,195,000
• Delta: 27.10%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
125 Soundview Rd	0.40mi	4/3.5	2,950 (-12%)	21mo	$2,899,000	$983	42
1855 Greenway East	0.71mi	5/4.5 (+1)	2,950 (-12%)	9mo	$1,775,000	$602	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.07×
• Total profit: $1,886,530
• Equity at exit: $1,977,430

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.6%
• Equity multiple: 9.15×
• Total profit: $5,011,144
• Equity at exit: $4,264,402

Cash invested: $614,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11957

• Home prices YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $31,288 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$11,511
• Tax from tax record: −$1,436 /mo · $17,237/yr
• Insurance: −$915
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,570
• Net cashflow: $10,856

Break-even live

Break-even rent $17,547

Max offer price $2,195,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $12,098	-5% $11,477	+0% $10,856	+5% $10,234	+10% $9,613
Rent	-10% $8,384	-5% $9,620	+0% $10,856	+5% $12,092	+10% $13,327
Rate	-1.0pp $11,961	-0.5pp $11,414	base $10,856	+0.5pp $10,287	+1.0pp $9,708

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $548,750
• Closing costs: $65,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1080 Lands End Rd Orient, NY	4.0	3.0	4000	$32,000	$8.00	45d	1	0.09mi
300 Latham Ln Orient, NY	4.0	4.0	3800	$20,000	$5.26	45d	1	0.16mi
505 Plum Island Ln Orient, NY	4.0	4.5	2600	$50,000	$19.23	45d	1	0.26mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $2,195,000 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $2,195,000 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $2,195,000 Active 129 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $2,195,000 Active 128 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $2,195,000 Active 127 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,195,000 Active 126 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,195,000 Active 124 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $2,195,000 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,195,000 Active 120 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $2,195,000 Active 119 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $2,195,000 Active 118 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $2,195,000 Active 117 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $2,195,000 Active 114 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $2,195,000 Active 113 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,195,000 Active 112 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,195,000 Active 111 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    price $2,195,000 966-char remark

    Show marketing remark (966 chars)

    Treat yourself to the astounding panoramic waterviews afforded by this feature-rich luxury home set in the most-easterly enclave on Long Island’s beautiful North Fork. From the full-length living-level deck, Long Island Sound and the Connecticut shoreline beckon to the north; east and south are striking views of Plum Island and Gardiners Bay. Passing through stone pillars and an arched privacy gate, you will first behold this handsome spectacularly built home over the length of the vast brick driveway. Designed and crafted without regard to expense, the home’s deft use of space and robust construction maximize the remarkable water views, provide gracious living spaces, and yield exceptional pride of ownership. Lavish with amenities, including three fireplaces, Viking chef’s kitchen, and a cherry-panelled elevator, it is set on tastefully landscaped grounds of nearly an acre, with ample room for a large pool and tennis. Come home soon!

18. 2026-04-15
    price $2,250,000 966-char remark

    Show marketing remark (966 chars)

    Treat yourself to the astounding panoramic waterviews afforded by this feature-rich luxury home set in the most-easterly enclave on Long Island’s beautiful North Fork. From the full-length living-level deck, Long Island Sound and the Connecticut shoreline beckon to the north; east and south are striking views of Plum Island and Gardiners Bay. Passing through stone pillars and an arched privacy gate, you will first behold this handsome spectacularly built home over the length of the vast brick driveway. Designed and crafted without regard to expense, the home’s deft use of space and robust construction maximize the remarkable water views, provide gracious living spaces, and yield exceptional pride of ownership. Lavish with amenities, including three fireplaces, Viking chef’s kitchen, and a cherry-panelled elevator, it is set on tastefully landscaped grounds of nearly an acre, with ample room for a large pool and tennis. Come home soon!

19. 2026-03-17
    price $2,325,000 966-char remark

    Show marketing remark (966 chars)

    Treat yourself to the astounding panoramic waterviews afforded by this feature-rich luxury home set in the most-easterly enclave on Long Island’s beautiful North Fork. From the full-length living-level deck, Long Island Sound and the Connecticut shoreline beckon to the north; east and south are striking views of Plum Island and Gardiners Bay. Passing through stone pillars and an arched privacy gate, you will first behold this handsome spectacularly built home over the length of the vast brick driveway. Designed and crafted without regard to expense, the home’s deft use of space and robust construction maximize the remarkable water views, provide gracious living spaces, and yield exceptional pride of ownership. Lavish with amenities, including three fireplaces, Viking chef’s kitchen, and a cherry-panelled elevator, it is set on tastefully landscaped grounds of nearly an acre, with ample room for a large pool and tennis. Come home soon!

20. 2026-02-02
    listed $2,400,000 Active 966-char remark

    Show marketing remark (966 chars)

    Treat yourself to the astounding panoramic waterviews afforded by this feature-rich luxury home set in the most-easterly enclave on Long Island’s beautiful North Fork. From the full-length living-level deck, Long Island Sound and the Connecticut shoreline beckon to the north; east and south are striking views of Plum Island and Gardiners Bay. Passing through stone pillars and an arched privacy gate, you will first behold this handsome spectacularly built home over the length of the vast brick driveway. Designed and crafted without regard to expense, the home’s deft use of space and robust construction maximize the remarkable water views, provide gracious living spaces, and yield exceptional pride of ownership. Lavish with amenities, including three fireplaces, Viking chef’s kitchen, and a cherry-panelled elevator, it is set on tastefully landscaped grounds of nearly an acre, with ample room for a large pool and tennis. Come home soon!

21. 2018-03-26
    soldstatus $1,437,500
22. 2018-02-14
    soldstatus $1,437,500 Closed 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    Spectacular Contemporary. Panoramic Views. Steps To Sound. Private Gated Property. Professional Grade Chef's Kitchen. Open Floor Plan Thru-Out. High End Finishes. Endless Amenities, Including Fireplaces On Both Levels., Additional information: Appearance:Mint,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

23. 2018-01-31
    status Under Contract 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    Spectacular Contemporary. Panoramic Views. Steps To Sound. Private Gated Property. Professional Grade Chef's Kitchen. Open Floor Plan Thru-Out. High End Finishes. Endless Amenities, Including Fireplaces On Both Levels., Additional information: Appearance:Mint,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

24. 2018-01-15
    listed $1,450,000 New 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    Spectacular Contemporary. Panoramic Views. Steps To Sound. Private Gated Property. Professional Grade Chef's Kitchen. Open Floor Plan Thru-Out. High End Finishes. Endless Amenities, Including Fireplaces On Both Levels., Additional information: Appearance:Mint,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

25. 2017-12-01
    historical
26. 2017-11-03
    price $1,649,000
27. 2017-09-12
    price $1,699,999
28. 2017-07-12
    price $1,899,999
29. 2017-05-24
    listed $1,999,999 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $17,237 · $1,436/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $27,166 · $2,264/mo
• Expected delta: +$9,929/yr (+$827/mo · 57.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $375,456
• − Mortgage interest: −$122,954
• − Property taxes: −$17,237
• − Insurance: −$10,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$30,036
• − Management: −$30,036
• − Depreciation: −$63,855
• Taxable income: $100,363
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$24,087
• After-tax cash flow: $106,182/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oysterponds Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3621930
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 20.00%
• Median HH income: $71,948
• Composite: 42.9/100
• National rank: #6712
• State rank: #506 of 755 in NY

Livability — Orient

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1080
• US rank: #21725

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orient, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,152

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.41%
• Current HPI: 265.16
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+9.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $2,195,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $2,250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $2,325,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-02 Listed $2,400,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $1,437,500 Public Records
• 2018-02-14 Sold (MLS) $1,437,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-31 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-15 Listed $1,450,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-11-03 Price Changed $1,649,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-09-12 Price Changed $1,699,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-07-12 Price Changed $1,899,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-24 Listed $1,999,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $17,237 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.