161 18TH St Unit 3C · Union City, NJ 07087

$279,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 701 sqft · Condo public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1973 $304/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SIMPLIFY YOUR LIFE WITH AN EASY AND RELAXING COMMUTE TO WORK EVERYDAY. Short walk to Palisades ave, buses to Hoboken, and the buses/ferries to New York City. Only 20 minutes from Midtown Manhattan/the greatest city in the world. short walk to Gregory ave. The view from Gregory Ave is recognized worldwide. Walk to shops, parks, and more. ATTRACTIVE/MODREN URBAN LIVING. HARDWOOD FLOORS THROUGHOUT. THIS APARTMENT OFFERS MANY UPGRADES AND IS A MUST SEE. GREAT LOCATION. LOW MAINTENANCES. TAX TBD. WHY PAY RENT WHEN YOU CAN OWN? Scehdule your tour before its gone!

Key facts

• $304 HOA
• Listed 49 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $45 ($541/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $280k).
• Recommended offer: $271k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.3% in Union City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#117 in NJ, #2,998 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: cost of living F.
• Union City School District (suburban): math 15% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #399 of 472 in NJ (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 228 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,310 units permitted in Hudson County in 2024 (4,154 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,796/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 6042% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hudson County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.9% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $271,115 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.69%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $149,463
• Equity at exit: $251,796

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.46×
• Total profit: $427,447
• Equity at exit: $543,007

Cash invested: $78,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07087

• Home prices YoY: 9.6%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 228
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,796 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,466
• Tax from tax record: −$278 /mo · $3,331/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$304
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$587
• Net cashflow: $45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,739

Max offer price $279,500

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $203	-5% $124	+0% $45	+5% $-34	+10% $-113
Rent	-10% $-176	-5% $-65	+0% $45	+5% $155	+10% $266
Rate	-1.0pp $186	-0.5pp $116	base $45	+0.5pp $-27	+1.0pp $-101

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,875
• Closing costs: $8,385
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1810 Palisade Ave Unit 1R Union City, NJ	1.0	1.0	736	$2,600	$3.53	21d	1	0.07mi
1620 Palisade Ave Unit B Union City, NJ	1.0	1.0	500	$1,800	$3.60	25d	1	0.08mi
1620 Palisade Ave #1 Union City, NJ	1.0	1.0	500	$1,950	$3.90	25d	1	0.08mi
115 20th St Apt 1 Union City, NJ	1.0	1.0	750	$2,300	$3.07	25d	1	0.12mi
9 Grand St Unit 2A Weehawken, NJ	1.0	1.0	550	$2,775	$5.05	23d	1	0.20mi
1618 Bergenline Ave Unit 3F Union City, NJ	2.0	1.0	700	$2,250	$3.21	8d	1	0.24mi
2105 New York Ave Unit Basement Union City, NJ	2.0	1.0	700	$2,100	$3.00	44d	1	0.26mi
1505 Harbor Blvd Unit 502 Weehawken, NJ	1.0	1.0	723	$3,928	$5.43	25d	1	0.37mi
1501 Harbor Blvd Unit 332 Weehawken, NJ	—	1.0	525	$2,750	$5.24	25d	1	0.37mi
1501 Harbor Blvd Unit 302 Weehawken, NJ	1.0	1.0	723	$3,500	$4.84	25d	1	0.37mi
1505 Harbor Blvd Unit 432 Weehawken, NJ	—	1.0	525	$3,368	$6.42	25d	1	0.37mi
1525 Harbor Blvd Weehawken Township, NJ	2.0	1.0–2.0	798	$6,110	$7.65	0d	16	0.37mi
800 Harbor Blvd Weehawken Township, NJ	2.0	1.0–2.0	927	$4,828	$5.21	3d	28	0.37mi
100 Harbor Blvd Weehawken, NJ	2.0	1.0–2.0	890	$5,644	$6.34	0d	12	0.37mi
1206 Bergenline Ave Union City, NJ	1.0	1.0	500	$1,695	$3.39	11d	1	0.37mi
311 Park Ave Weehawken, NJ	1.0	1.0	400	$2,500	$6.25	25d	1	0.37mi
221 Jane St #1 Weehawken, NJ	1.0	1.0	600	$2,100	$3.50	23d	1	0.40mi
621 14th St Unit 1314944P Union City, NJ	1.0	1.0	559	$6,229	$11.13	0d	2	0.42mi
1575 Harbor Blvd Unit 1402W Weehawken, NJ	—	1.0	527	$2,700	$5.12	25d	1	0.46mi
510 10th St Unit Ground 1 Union City, NJ	—	1.0	360	$1,600	$4.44	0d	1	0.48mi
700 Harbor Blvd Unit 1001 Weehawken Township, NJ	1.0	1.0	700	$4,000	$5.71	25d	1	0.52mi
1405 Clinton St Hoboken, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	979	$3,700	$3.78	5d	6	0.52mi
1600 Harbor Blvd Weehawken, NJ	3.0	1.0–2.0	998	$4,691	$4.70	4d	12	0.53mi
2709 Bergenline Ave Unit 3B Union City, NJ	1.0	1.0	700	$1,550	$2.21	23d	1	0.54mi
1404 Willow Ave Hoboken, NJ	3.0	1.0–3.0	1142	$7,933	$6.94	0d	8	0.54mi
231 32nd St Unit 412 Weehawken, NJ	1.0	1.0	683	$2,815	$4.12	8d	1	0.54mi
801 Harbor Blvd Unit 1512A Weehawken, NJ	1.0	1.0	720	$3,450	$4.79	25d	1	0.56mi
801 Harbor Blvd Unit 1013A Weehawken, NJ	—	1.0	575	$2,850	$4.96	25d	1	0.56mi
1500 Washington St Hoboken, NJ	1.0	1.0	735	$3,988	$5.43	21d	3	0.57mi
1500 Washington St Hoboken, NJ	1.0	1.0	735	$3,825	$5.20	15d	3	0.57mi
1500 Washington St Unit 9K Hoboken, NJ	1.0	1.0	735	$3,950	$5.37	8d	1	0.58mi
1331 Grand St Hoboken, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	933	$3,500	$3.75	8d	2	0.59mi
2705 Central Ave Unit 1 Union City, NJ	2.0	1.0	500	$2,300	$4.60	18d	1	0.60mi
1500 Harbor Blvd Weehawken, NJ	2.0	1.0–2.0	795	$5,134	$6.45	0d	12	0.63mi
5 Port Imperial Blvd Weehawken Township, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	809	$3,578	$4.42	0d	30	0.68mi
1901 Kennedy Blvd North Bergen, NJ	1.0	1.0	650	$2,075	$3.19	18d	2	0.68mi
401 Bergenline Ave #1 Union City, NJ	2.0	1.0	700	$2,000	$2.86	14d	1	0.71mi
2 14th St Hoboken, NJ	1.0	1.0	652	$4,525	$6.94	0d	3	0.72mi
1214 Washington St #3 Hoboken, NJ	2.0	1.0	710	$3,800	$5.35	25d	1	0.74mi
1305 Paterson Plank Rd North Bergen, NJ	2.0	1.0–2.0	975	$3,095	$3.17	6d	21	0.77mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $304 · $3,648/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 8 events

1. 2024-11-15
   status Under Contract
2. 2024-11-08
   historical Under Contract - Attorney Review 563-char remark

   Show marketing remark (563 chars)

   SIMPLIFY YOUR LIFE WITH AN EASY AND RELAXING COMMUTE TO WORK EVERYDAY. Short walk to Palisades ave, buses to Hoboken, and the buses/ferries to New York City. Only 20 minutes from Midtown Manhattan/the greatest city in the world. short walk to Gregory ave. The view from Gregory Ave is recognized worldwide. Walk to shops, parks, and more. ATTRACTIVE/MODREN URBAN LIVING. HARDWOOD FLOORS THROUGHOUT. THIS APARTMENT OFFERS MANY UPGRADES AND IS A MUST SEE. GREAT LOCATION. LOW MAINTENANCES. TAX TBD. WHY PAY RENT WHEN YOU CAN OWN? Scehdule your tour before its gone!

3. 2024-09-29
   listed $279,500 Active 563-char remark

   Show marketing remark (563 chars)

   SIMPLIFY YOUR LIFE WITH AN EASY AND RELAXING COMMUTE TO WORK EVERYDAY. Short walk to Palisades ave, buses to Hoboken, and the buses/ferries to New York City. Only 20 minutes from Midtown Manhattan/the greatest city in the world. short walk to Gregory ave. The view from Gregory Ave is recognized worldwide. Walk to shops, parks, and more. ATTRACTIVE/MODREN URBAN LIVING. HARDWOOD FLOORS THROUGHOUT. THIS APARTMENT OFFERS MANY UPGRADES AND IS A MUST SEE. GREAT LOCATION. LOW MAINTENANCES. TAX TBD. WHY PAY RENT WHEN YOU CAN OWN? Scehdule your tour before its gone!

4. 2024-09-27
   listed $279,500 Active
5. 2009-08-18
   historical 414-char remark

   Show marketing remark (414 chars)

   New condo coversion, in lovely residential neighborhood! Newly renovated, spacious 1 bedroom , features gleaming HWF, new wood cabinetry, black granite counters, SS appliance package, gleaming new bathrooms . .. . great value for a first time buyer! Steps to Palisade Ave, to catch NYC bus. 20 min ride to Manhattan! Eligible for 5 yr tax abatement. Limited # of garage parking avail. for purchase. Call today!

6. 2009-04-14
   listed $184,900 414-char remark

   Show marketing remark (414 chars)

   New condo coversion, in lovely residential neighborhood! Newly renovated, spacious 1 bedroom , features gleaming HWF, new wood cabinetry, black granite counters, SS appliance package, gleaming new bathrooms . .. . great value for a first time buyer! Steps to Palisade Ave, to catch NYC bus. 20 min ride to Manhattan! Eligible for 5 yr tax abatement. Limited # of garage parking avail. for purchase. Call today!

7. 2008-06-07
   historical
8. 2008-04-30
   listed $219,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,331 · $278/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,145 · $429/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,814/yr (+$151/mo · 54.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥98°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,551
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,656
• − Property taxes: −$3,331
• − Insurance: −$1,398
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,684
• − Management: −$2,684
• − HOA: −$3,648
• − Depreciation: −$8,131
• Taxable loss: −$3,980
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$955
• After-tax cash flow: $1,496/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Union City School District
• NCES district ID: 3416380
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $41,210
• Composite: 21.55/100
• National rank: #8312
• State rank: #399 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Union City

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #117
• US rank: #2998

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Union City, NJ
• County: Hudson County · 718,323 people
• City population: 66,463
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 66,463
• Household income: $64,310
• Rent vs Own: 80.9% rent · 19.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 6042.0

Population outlook (Hudson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 771,834 people
• By 2030: 818,028 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 907,866 · +17.6%
• By 2050: 994,480 · +28.8%
• By 2075: 1,163,301 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,254,703 · +62.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 82% Two or more races 28% White 10% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 9% Dominican 17%
• Foreign-born: 55% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 74% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hudson

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.1) · D 62.6% · R 34.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.7pp toward R · 2008: 46.7pp · 2024: 28.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.1 2020: D+46.2 2016: D+51.8 2012: D+55.7 2008: D+46.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.10%
• Current HPI: 597.8126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.89%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+27.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2024-11-15 Pending — HCMLS
• 2024-11-08 Contingent — NJMLS
• 2024-09-29 Listed $279,500 NJMLS
• 2024-09-27 Listed $279,500 HCMLS
• 2009-08-18 Listing Removed — HCMLS
• 2009-04-14 Listed $184,900 HCMLS
• 2008-06-07 Listing Removed — HCMLS
• 2008-04-30 Listed $219,000 HCMLS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2021): $3,331 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.