20039 Shadow Is · Santa Clarita, CA 91351

$317,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,482 sqft · Manufactured public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1999 3,600 sqft lot Est $237k · 34% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Upgraded unit CORNER LOT Fireplace in living room, Nice size back yard with patio slab, Attached garage direct entry to unit. Washer and Dryer included as well as the Refridgerator.

Key facts

• 3,600 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is a single unit (no common walls)
• Financial info: Land lease: $1,645 monthly
• HOA & community: Community amenities: pool, clubhouse, playground, tennis, outdoor cooking area; Association allows pets (with pet rules); Controlled access and gated community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with direct garage access; Driveway parking; Total of 2 parking spaces
• Security: Gated community with guard; Controlled access; Carbon monoxide and smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water; Natural gas connected; Electricity connected; Cable connected
• Home design: House; One story; Updated/remodeled condition; Entry at level 1; No ADU
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Concrete patio; Patio (see remarks); Community/gated spa (heated); Association community pool (heated, gunite); Sprinklers in front and rear; Landscaped yard; Back yard; Block wall fencing; Corner lot; Close to clubhouse; Street lighting in neighborhood; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Gas oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Trash compactor; Water heater unit; Kitchen island; Quartz counters; Breakfast counter/bar and dining ell
• Bedrooms: Main floor primary bedroom; All bedrooms on one level; 3 main-level bedrooms; Walk-in closet; Laundry room on main level
• Flooring: See remarks (flooring details in remarks)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Upgraded finishes; Walk-in shower; Separate tub and shower; Double sinks in primary bath
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling; Central furnace heating
• Interior features: Crown moldings; Quartz counters; Ceiling fan; Recessed lighting; Open floor plan; Cathedral/vaulted ceilings; Sliding glass door(s); Double pane windows with blinds
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry in a dedicated room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $318k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $318k).
• Recommended offer: $308k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 2.8% in Santa Clarita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#229 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• William S. Hart Union High (suburban): math 52% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #155 of 1,400 in CA (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Cedarcreek Elementary (375 students, 58% FRL); Sierra Vista Junior High (991 students, 35% FRL); Canyon High (1,946 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 43% FRL vs 18% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 110 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($115k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $89k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $66k; list at $318k implies a 381% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $307,975 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.88%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $237,120
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20042 Canyon View Dr #74	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,482 (0%)	4mo	$275,000	$186	93
20073 Edgewater Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,482 (0%)	5mo	$322,000	$217	92
20401 Soledad Cyn	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-3%)	4mo	$230,000	$160	72
20401 Soledad Canyon Rd Spc 543	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-3%)	4mo	$230,000	$160	65
20401 Soledad Canyon Rd #231	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+6%)	3mo	$240,000	$153	61
20401 Soledad Canyon Rd #342	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-9%)	8mo	$210,000	$156	51
20401 Soledad Canyon Rd #821	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,508 (+2%)	23mo	$235,800	$156	51
20401 Soledad Canyon Rd #203	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-5%)	19mo	$235,000	$167	49
20401 Soledad Canyon Rd #690	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-9%)	16mo	$240,400	$179	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $13,648
• Equity at exit: $47,340

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $81,885
• Equity at exit: $27,452

Cash invested: $88,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 91351

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,886 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,665
• Tax from tax record: −$170 /mo · $2,045/yr
• Insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$816
• Net cashflow: $1,102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,491

Max offer price $317,500

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,282	-5% $1,192	+0% $1,102	+5% $1,012	+10% $922
Rent	-10% $795	-5% $949	+0% $1,102	+5% $1,256	+10% $1,409
Rate	-1.0pp $1,262	-0.5pp $1,183	base $1,102	+0.5pp $1,020	+1.0pp $936

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,375
• Closing costs: $9,525
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
28040 Ermine Pl Canyon Country, CA	4.0	2.0	1467	$4,250	$2.90	0d	1	0.58mi
27932 Calypso Ln Canyon Country, CA	4.0	2.0	1783	$7,495	$4.20	21d	1	0.58mi
27932 Calypso Ln Canyon Country, CA	4.0	2.0	1789	$7,495	$4.19	0d	1	0.58mi
26956 Flo Ln #338 Canyon Country, CA	2.0	2.0	1064	$2,875	$2.70	0d	1	0.61mi
26955 Rainbow Glen Dr Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	2.0	1007	$2,850	$2.83	0d	1	0.67mi
26941 Rainbow Glen Dr #751 Canyon Country, CA	2.0	2.0	907	$2,900	$3.20	0d	1	0.68mi
26921 Flo Ln Canyon Country, CA	3.0	2.0	1107	$2,950	$2.66	0d	1	0.69mi
26901 Rainbow Glen Dr Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	2.0	1001	$2,950	$2.95	0d	1	0.73mi
26842 Claudette St #204 Canyon Country, CA	2.0	2.0	964	$2,650	$2.75	0d	1	0.76mi
20345 Rue Crevier Santa Clarita, CA	2.0	2.0	907	$2,700	$2.98	0d	1	0.76mi
28131 Florence Ln Canyon Country, CA	3.0	2.0	1515	$4,300	$2.84	0d	1	0.77mi
26741 Isabella Pkwy Canyon Country, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$2,989	$3.52	0d	4	0.88mi
26844 Albion Way Unit 1 Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	2.5	1817	$3,995	$2.20	14d	1	0.95mi
27301 Whites Canyon Rd Canyon Country, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,995	$2.22	19d	2	1.03mi
19028 Drycliff St Unit C Canyon Country, CA	3.0	1.5	982	$3,600	$3.67	4d	1	1.09mi
20000 Plum Canyon Rd Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	3.0	1370	$3,500	$2.55	0d	1	1.16mi
20000 Plum Canyon Rd Santa Clarita, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1051	$3,700	$3.52	25d	2	1.16mi
28427 Santa Rosa Ln Santa Clarita, CA	2.0	2.0	1121	$3,000	$2.68	0d	1	1.18mi
19335 Laroda Ln Santa Clarita, CA	2.0	2.0	1400	$3,000	$2.14	9d	1	1.18mi
28371 Mirabelle Ln Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	2.5	1710	$3,400	$1.99	8d	1	1.19mi
28366 Casselman Ln Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	2.5	1710	$3,650	$2.13	0d	1	1.22mi
28136 Bakerton Ave Canyon Country, CA	3.0	2.0	1400	$3,800	$2.71	9d	1	1.23mi
19341 Opal Ln Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	3.0	1850	$3,850	$2.08	20d	1	1.27mi
18735 Bookham Dr Canyon Country, CA	4.0	2.0	1628	$4,900	$3.01	18d	1	1.28mi
27077 Hidaway Ave Canyon Country, CA	2.0	1.0	960	$2,400	$2.50	0d	1	1.38mi
27070 Hidaway Ave #4 Canyon Country, CA	2.0	1.5	1078	$3,200	$2.97	4d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $317,500 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $317,500 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $317,500 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $317,500 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $317,500 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $317,500 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $317,500 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $317,500 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $317,500 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $317,500 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $317,500 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $317,500 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $317,500 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $317,500 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $317,500 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-06
    listed $317,500 Active
17. 2026-05-02
    historical $317,500
18. 2010-04-19
    soldstatus $66,000 Closed 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    Upgraded unit CORNER LOT Fireplace in living room, Nice size back yard with patio slab, Attached garage direct entry to unit. Washer and Dryer included as well as the Refridgerator.

19. 2010-02-20
    status Pending 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    Upgraded unit CORNER LOT Fireplace in living room, Nice size back yard with patio slab, Attached garage direct entry to unit. Washer and Dryer included as well as the Refridgerator.

20. 2010-02-10
    listed $72,990 Active 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    Upgraded unit CORNER LOT Fireplace in living room, Nice size back yard with patio slab, Attached garage direct entry to unit. Washer and Dryer included as well as the Refridgerator.

21. 2008-07-12
    historical
22. 2008-05-30
    price
23. 2008-05-07
    listed
24. 2005-08-04
    soldstatus $265,000
25. 2005-07-16
    listed $254,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,045 · $170/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,413 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: +$368/yr (+$31/mo · 18.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,630
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,785
• − Property taxes: −$2,045
• − Insurance: −$1,588
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,730
• − Management: −$3,730
• − Depreciation: −$9,236
• Taxable income: $8,516
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,044
• After-tax cash flow: $11,182/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William S. Hart Union High
• NCES district ID: 0642510
• Math proficiency: 52% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $95,844
• Composite: 58.6/100
• National rank: #2030
• State rank: #155 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Santa Clarita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #229
• US rank: #7378

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute C+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Clarita, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 219,066
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,155
• Household income: $115,364
• Rent vs Own: 27.3% rent · 72.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 784.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 34% Two or more races 21% Asian 6% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -703.16%
• Current HPI: 360.9901
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.70%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+24.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $317,500 CRMLS
• 2026-05-02 Coming Soon $317,500 CRMLS
• 2010-04-19 Sold (MLS) $66,000 CRMLS
• 2010-02-20 Pending — CRMLS
• 2010-02-10 Listed $72,990 CRMLS
• 2008-07-12 Delisted — TheMLS
• 2008-05-30 Price Changed — TheMLS
• 2008-05-07 Listed — TheMLS
• 2005-08-04 Sold (MLS) $265,000 CRMLS
• 2005-07-16 Listed $254,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,045 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.