1001 E North Union St · Bay City, MI 48706

$42,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 803 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1864 3,049 sqft lot $53/sqft · 49% below area Est $83k · 49% under ↓ 47% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Bay City westside 2 bedroom, 1 bath home is waiting for you. Home features updated kitchen, fenced in yard, sunporch. This home is city certified as a rental. .. .non-homestead. Priced to sell, so call today!

Key facts

• 3,049 sq ft lot
• 3 parking spots
• Listed 33 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Three or more off-street parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sanitary sewer and storm; Natural gas service; Gas water heater
• Home design: Single-story residential property; Entry level and main living all on the first floor
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Piers foundation; Year built not specified
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Corner lot on a main street; Road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: First-floor kitchen with vinyl flooring (approx. 14 x 12)
• Bedrooms: Two first-floor bedrooms with carpeted floors (approximately 13 x 7 and 9 x 7)
• Flooring: Carpet in living, family, and sun/Florida rooms and bedrooms; Vinyl in kitchen and bathroom
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor with vinyl flooring (approx. 8 x 7)
• Heating & cooling: Space heater; Natural gas heat source and gas water heater
• Interior features: Seven total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $42k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $858 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $42k).
• Recommended offer: $41k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 30.5% vs local median 5.5% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 246 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $294 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($41k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $32k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1864 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $41,225 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1864 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 86.52%
• DSCR: 4.85
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $83,298
• List price: $42,500
• Delta: -48.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1001 E North Union St	0.00mi	2/1.0	803 (0%)	0mo	$32,000	$40	100
609 King St	0.29mi	2/1.0	807 (+0%)	10mo	$105,000	$130	78
705 N Dewitt St	0.44mi	2/1.0	805 (+0%)	11mo	$35,000	$43	70
1108 Litchfield St	0.28mi	2/1.0	768 (-4%)	14mo	$92,000	$120	68
604 N Catherine St	0.30mi	2/1.0	860 (+7%)	8mo	$113,000	$131	67
609 N Catherine St	0.31mi	2/1.0	750 (-7%)	11mo	$65,000	$87	66
305 Mosher St	0.35mi	2/1.0	702 (-13%)	5mo	$70,000	$100	58
403 Bradley St	0.43mi	2/1.0	912 (+14%)	2mo	$80,000	$88	55
511 Sidney St	0.58mi	2/2.0	850 (+6%)	9mo	$110,000	$129	52
607 N Dewitt St	0.45mi	2/1.0	698 (-13%)	12mo	$94,000	$135	47
1203 N Wenona St	0.58mi	2/1.0	912 (+14%)	11mo	$135,000	$148	42
406 E Smith St	0.58mi	2/1.0	920 (+15%)	12mo	$113,197	$123	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 87.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.02×
• Total profit: $47,803
• Equity at exit: $6,337

10-year hold

• IRR: 90.1%
• Equity multiple: 10.43×
• Total profit: $112,163
• Equity at exit: $3,675

Cash invested: $11,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48706

• Active inventory: 246
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,498 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$223
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,014/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $858

Break-even live

Break-even rent $411

Max offer price $42,500

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,625
• Closing costs: $1,275
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1305 Washington Ave Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	635	$1,675	$2.64	43d	1	0.57mi
605 E Jane St Bay City, MI	1.0	1.0	754	$1,650	$2.19	43d	1	0.64mi
800 McKinley St Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	796	$925	$1.16	43d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-30
   statusdays on market $42,500 Pending 33 DOM
2. 2026-05-08
   price $42,500 208-char remark
3. 2026-04-30
   price $54,900 208-char remark
4. 2026-04-27
   listed $59,900 Active 208-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,014 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,014 · $84/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,971
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,381
• − Property taxes: −$1,014
• − Insurance: −$212
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,438
• − Management: −$1,438
• − Depreciation: −$1,236
• Taxable income: $10,252
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,461
• After-tax cash flow: $7,836/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• City population: 25,635
• Population (ZIP): 38,756

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 9% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.29%
• Current HPI: 203.6444
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-46.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Sold (MLS) $32,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-30 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-27 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $42,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $54,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $59,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,014 · -10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.