5615 Theodosia Ave · St. Louis, MO 63112

$12,000

None bd · 2.0 ba · 1,962 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 118 Days on market

Built 1906 3,001 sqft lot $6/sqft · 73% below area ↓ 38% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Investment opportunity to restore a duplex. Property sold as is. Offers must be presented on a contract to be considered.

Key facts

• 3,001 sq ft lot
• Built 1906
• Listed 118 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $12k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($22k/yr) — positive. Per door: $903/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $12k).
• Recommended offer: $11k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 186.8% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Nahed Chapman New American Aca (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #1,099 of 1,115 statewide, top 100%, 335 students, 99% FRL); Gateway Middle (math 0% / reading 8%, grade F, #389 of 391 statewide, top 100%, 506 students, 99% FRL); Sumner High (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #520 of 521 statewide, top 100%, 264 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 80% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 122 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,400/mo this rent would consume 63% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 1457% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $83 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $360 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $3k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($11k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $48k (80%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1906 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $10,920 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1906 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 20.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 186.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 644.82%
• DSCR: 29.69
• GRM: 0.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $43,772
• List price: $12,000
• Delta: -72.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1460 Laurel St Unit 1st floor	0.30mi	3/2.0	2,024 (+3%)	20mo	$35,900	$18	64
2615 Burd Ave	0.34mi	—/—	2,184 (+11%)	6mo	$80,000	$37	61
5929 Highland Ave	0.55mi	4/2.0	2,208 (+12%)	5mo	$12,000	$5	49
5982 Minerva Ave	0.67mi	4/2.0	2,024 (+3%)	23mo	$15,000	$7	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 34.22×
• Total profit: $111,626
• Equity at exit: $1,789

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 72.28×
• Total profit: $239,506
• Equity at exit: $1,038

Cash invested: $3,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63112

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 0.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,400 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$63
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $271/yr
• Insurance: −$5
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $1,806

Break-even live

Break-even rent $115

Max offer price $12,000

Occupancy floor 20%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,812	-5% $1,809	+0% $1,806	+5% $1,802	+10% $1,799
Rent	-10% $1,616	-5% $1,711	+0% $1,806	+5% $1,900	+10% $1,995
Rate	-1.0pp $1,812	-0.5pp $1,809	base $1,806	+0.5pp $1,802	+1.0pp $1,799

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,400
Total (2 units)			$2,400

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,000
• Closing costs: $360
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5760 Theodosia Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1702	$1,420	$0.83	25d	1	0.24mi
5333 Patton Ave St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1262	$1,250	$0.99	45d	1	0.45mi
5345 Wells Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	2254	$1,295	$0.57	45d	1	0.46mi
5096 Minerva Ave Unit C St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1800	$1,395	$0.78	45d	1	0.84mi
1320 Academy Ave Unit A St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1600	$1,090	$0.68	45d	1	0.85mi
5223 Ashland Ave Unit 2 St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	2200	$1,450	$0.66	45d	1	0.97mi
5223 Ashland Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	2200	$1,250	$0.57	45d	1	0.97mi
5804 Cates Ave Unit 2 St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,500	$1.00	6d	1	1.12mi
1019 N Skinker Pkwy St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1137	$2,045	$1.80	0d	9	1.26mi
5527 Waterman Blvd St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	1389	$1,495	$1.08	18d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 121-char remark

   Show marketing remark (121 chars)

   Investment opportunity to restore a duplex. Property sold as is. Offers must be presented on a contract to be considered.

2. 2026-05-11
   status Active 121-char remark

   Show marketing remark (121 chars)

   Investment opportunity to restore a duplex. Property sold as is. Offers must be presented on a contract to be considered.

3. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 121-char remark

   Show marketing remark (121 chars)

   Investment opportunity to restore a duplex. Property sold as is. Offers must be presented on a contract to be considered.

4. 2026-05-01
   price $12,000 121-char remark

   Show marketing remark (121 chars)

   Investment opportunity to restore a duplex. Property sold as is. Offers must be presented on a contract to be considered.

5. 2026-04-17
   price $29,000 121-char remark

   Show marketing remark (121 chars)

   Investment opportunity to restore a duplex. Property sold as is. Offers must be presented on a contract to be considered.

6. 2026-03-30
   status Active 121-char remark

   Show marketing remark (121 chars)

   Investment opportunity to restore a duplex. Property sold as is. Offers must be presented on a contract to be considered.

7. 2026-03-30
   price $35,000 121-char remark

   Show marketing remark (121 chars)

   Investment opportunity to restore a duplex. Property sold as is. Offers must be presented on a contract to be considered.

8. 2026-03-16
   historical Active Under Contract 121-char remark

   Show marketing remark (121 chars)

   Investment opportunity to restore a duplex. Property sold as is. Offers must be presented on a contract to be considered.

9. 2026-03-06
   price $37,000 121-char remark

   Show marketing remark (121 chars)

   Investment opportunity to restore a duplex. Property sold as is. Offers must be presented on a contract to be considered.

10. 2026-02-04
    price $40,000 121-char remark

    Show marketing remark (121 chars)

    Investment opportunity to restore a duplex. Property sold as is. Offers must be presented on a contract to be considered.

11. 2026-01-28
    price $57,000 121-char remark

    Show marketing remark (121 chars)

    Investment opportunity to restore a duplex. Property sold as is. Offers must be presented on a contract to be considered.

12. 2026-01-16
    listed $60,000 Active 121-char remark

    Show marketing remark (121 chars)

    Investment opportunity to restore a duplex. Property sold as is. Offers must be presented on a contract to be considered.

13. 2026-01-13
    historical $60,000 121-char remark

    Show marketing remark (121 chars)

    Investment opportunity to restore a duplex. Property sold as is. Offers must be presented on a contract to be considered.

14. 2024-12-31
    soldstatus $25,000
15. 2024-09-13
    historical
16. 2024-08-27
    price $15,000
17. 2024-08-22
    listed $19,500 Active
18. 2024-08-19
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $271 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $271 · $23/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$672
• − Property taxes: −$271
• − Insurance: −$60
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,304
• − Management: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$349
• Taxable income: $22,840
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,482
• After-tax cash flow: $16,184/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• County: Saint Louis City · 254,015 people
• City population: 283,259
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 17,985
• Household income: $45,542
• Rent vs Own: 64.1% rent · 35.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1457.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 63% White 24% Asian 6% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 2% Korean 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.94%
• Current HPI: 115.1863
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.39%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-38.5% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $12,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $29,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $35,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $37,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $40,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $57,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Listed $60,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-13 Coming Soon $60,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 2024-09-13 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-27 Price Changed $15,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-22 Listed $19,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-19 Coming Soon — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $271 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.