29967 Southwell Ln · Wesley Chapel, FL 33543

$5,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,153 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2021 3,485 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

10++ This beauty is located at the entrance of much sought after Wndermere Estates across from pool, clubhouse and mailboxes, that’s right no neighbors across the street. The kitchen features quartz counter tops, 42” cabinets with crown molding, stainless steel appliances, tile floor, oversized island. The large Master bedroom has a huge walk-in closet. Large bonus area is perfect for an office or for an additional family room. The upgraded A/C unit has an upgraded damper system with three separate zones. Screened Lanai and two car garage with epoxy finish round out this beauty. Minutes from Wiregrass mall, the Premium outlet malls and easy access to I75.

Key facts

• 3,485 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2021

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Garage parking
• Utilities: Other water source; Other sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Residential property
• Construction: Construction materials: see remarks; Other roof
• Exterior features: Front porch

Interior

• Flooring: Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Front porch; Other flooring

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $5,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$561,933) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $5k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($25k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $5k).
• Cap rate 498.1% vs local median 3.7% in Wesley Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 649 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $35 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $150 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $1k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $5,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 52.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 498.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 1756.43%
• DSCR: 79.15
• GRM: 0.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $561,933
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30174 Southernwood Ct	0.26mi	3/3.0	2,172 (+1%)	11mo	$540,000	$249	77
2864 Tarragona Way	0.48mi	3/2.5	2,072 (-4%)	3mo	$555,000	$268	67
2721 Tarragona Way	0.35mi	3/2.5	2,072 (-4%)	13mo	$510,000	$246	65
2632 Tarragona Way	0.40mi	3/2.5	2,072 (-4%)	12mo	$569,900	$275	63
2756 Tarragona Way	0.40mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,072 (-4%)	16mo	$540,000	$261	57
2683 Tarragona Way	0.35mi	3/2.5	2,072 (-4%)	23mo	$530,000	$256	57
30414 Sunland Ct	0.48mi	3/3.0	2,172 (+1%)	23mo	$665,000	$306	57
30410 Ceasar Park Dr	0.72mi	3/2.5	2,072 (-4%)	12mo	$549,900	$265	48
30423 Ceasar Park Dr	0.73mi	3/2.5	2,072 (-4%)	12mo	$540,000	$261	47
30393 Palmer Oak Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,895 (-12%)	14mo	$515,450	$272	43
1909 Ravenridge St	0.72mi	3/3.0	1,834 (-15%)	23mo	$327,000	$178	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 88.15×
• Total profit: $122,012
• Equity at exit: $746

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 175.71×
• Total profit: $244,591
• Equity at exit: $432

Cash invested: $1,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33543

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 649
• Price-to-rent: 0.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,638 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$26
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$6 /mo · $75/yr
• Insurance: −$2
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $2,049

Break-even live

Break-even rent $44

Max offer price $5,000

Occupancy floor 17%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,053	-5% $2,051	+0% $2,049	+5% $2,047	+10% $2,046
Rent	-10% $1,841	-5% $1,945	+0% $2,049	+5% $2,153	+10% $2,258
Rate	-1.0pp $2,052	-0.5pp $2,050	base $2,049	+0.5pp $2,048	+1.0pp $2,047

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,250
• Closing costs: $150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2454 Stapleford Pl Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	2153	$2,600	$1.21	15d	1	0.16mi
30588 Chesapeake Bay Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	2072	$2,995	$1.45	17d	1	0.75mi
29647 Fog Hollow Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	2080	$2,599	$1.25	25d	1	0.80mi
30542 Tremont Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1810	$2,295	$1.27	25d	1	0.96mi
30232 Ingalls Ct Unit NA Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	1685	$2,400	$1.42	5d	1	0.98mi
30721 Wrencrest Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1557	$1,500	$0.96	4d	1	1.11mi
28878 Golden Vista Blvd Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1075	$2,748	$2.56	0d	49	1.17mi
30127 Barnaby Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1401	$1,795	$1.28	22d	1	1.19mi
1550 Maximilian Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1978	$2,650	$1.34	5d	1	1.21mi
1411 Sedgwick Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	3.0	1416	$1,875	$1.32	0d	1	1.24mi
31203 Flannery Ct Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	3.0	1620	$2,200	$1.36	25d	1	1.28mi
31209 Flannery Ct Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	2.5	1407	$1,800	$1.28	21d	1	1.29mi
31225 Claridge Pl Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	3.0	1700	$2,100	$1.24	25d	1	1.29mi
2016 Folkstone Pl Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1514	$2,295	$1.52	4d	1	1.29mi
2016 Folkstone Pl Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1514	$2,400	$1.59	22d	1	1.29mi
31115 Hannigan Pl Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1956	$2,500	$1.28	5d	1	1.30mi
3928 Fraccareta Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1956	$3,225	$1.65	25d	1	1.31mi
1245 Beckenham Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1460	$1,850	$1.27	0d	1	1.35mi
29250 Yarrow Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1487	$2,239	$1.51	13d	1	1.36mi
29611 Birds Eye Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	3.0	1787	$2,580	$1.44	15d	1	1.40mi
29430 Sea Dahlia Pass Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	3.0	1827	$2,700	$1.48	25d	1	1.43mi
3391 Guanabana Xing Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.5	2972	$3,999	$1.35	11d	1	1.47mi
28905 Orange Berry Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	3.5	2357	$3,800	$1.61	25d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $5,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $5,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $5,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $5,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $5,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $5,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-05-28
   listed $5,000 Active
8. 2024-08-09
   soldstatus $422,000
9. 2024-08-05
   soldstatus $422,000 Closed 675-char remark

   Show marketing remark (675 chars)

   10++ This beauty is located at the entrance of much sought after Wndermere Estates across from pool, clubhouse and mailboxes, that’s right no neighbors across the street. The kitchen features quartz counter tops, 42” cabinets with crown molding, stainless steel appliances, tile floor, oversized island. The large Master bedroom has a huge walk-in closet. Large bonus area is perfect for an office or for an additional family room. The upgraded A/C unit has an upgraded damper system with three separate zones. Screened Lanai and two car garage with epoxy finish round out this beauty. Minutes from Wiregrass mall, the Premium outlet malls and easy access to I75.

10. 2024-07-17
    status Pending 675-char remark

    Show marketing remark (675 chars)

    10++ This beauty is located at the entrance of much sought after Wndermere Estates across from pool, clubhouse and mailboxes, that’s right no neighbors across the street. The kitchen features quartz counter tops, 42” cabinets with crown molding, stainless steel appliances, tile floor, oversized island. The large Master bedroom has a huge walk-in closet. Large bonus area is perfect for an office or for an additional family room. The upgraded A/C unit has an upgraded damper system with three separate zones. Screened Lanai and two car garage with epoxy finish round out this beauty. Minutes from Wiregrass mall, the Premium outlet malls and easy access to I75.

11. 2024-06-18
    price $399,990 675-char remark

    Show marketing remark (675 chars)

    10++ This beauty is located at the entrance of much sought after Wndermere Estates across from pool, clubhouse and mailboxes, that’s right no neighbors across the street. The kitchen features quartz counter tops, 42” cabinets with crown molding, stainless steel appliances, tile floor, oversized island. The large Master bedroom has a huge walk-in closet. Large bonus area is perfect for an office or for an additional family room. The upgraded A/C unit has an upgraded damper system with three separate zones. Screened Lanai and two car garage with epoxy finish round out this beauty. Minutes from Wiregrass mall, the Premium outlet malls and easy access to I75.

12. 2024-06-10
    price $409,990 675-char remark

    Show marketing remark (675 chars)

    10++ This beauty is located at the entrance of much sought after Wndermere Estates across from pool, clubhouse and mailboxes, that’s right no neighbors across the street. The kitchen features quartz counter tops, 42” cabinets with crown molding, stainless steel appliances, tile floor, oversized island. The large Master bedroom has a huge walk-in closet. Large bonus area is perfect for an office or for an additional family room. The upgraded A/C unit has an upgraded damper system with three separate zones. Screened Lanai and two car garage with epoxy finish round out this beauty. Minutes from Wiregrass mall, the Premium outlet malls and easy access to I75.

13. 2024-04-30
    price $419,990 675-char remark

    Show marketing remark (675 chars)

    10++ This beauty is located at the entrance of much sought after Wndermere Estates across from pool, clubhouse and mailboxes, that’s right no neighbors across the street. The kitchen features quartz counter tops, 42” cabinets with crown molding, stainless steel appliances, tile floor, oversized island. The large Master bedroom has a huge walk-in closet. Large bonus area is perfect for an office or for an additional family room. The upgraded A/C unit has an upgraded damper system with three separate zones. Screened Lanai and two car garage with epoxy finish round out this beauty. Minutes from Wiregrass mall, the Premium outlet malls and easy access to I75.

14. 2024-04-01
    price $429,990 675-char remark

    Show marketing remark (675 chars)

    10++ This beauty is located at the entrance of much sought after Wndermere Estates across from pool, clubhouse and mailboxes, that’s right no neighbors across the street. The kitchen features quartz counter tops, 42” cabinets with crown molding, stainless steel appliances, tile floor, oversized island. The large Master bedroom has a huge walk-in closet. Large bonus area is perfect for an office or for an additional family room. The upgraded A/C unit has an upgraded damper system with three separate zones. Screened Lanai and two car garage with epoxy finish round out this beauty. Minutes from Wiregrass mall, the Premium outlet malls and easy access to I75.

15. 2024-03-15
    listed $439,990 Active 675-char remark

    Show marketing remark (675 chars)

    10++ This beauty is located at the entrance of much sought after Wndermere Estates across from pool, clubhouse and mailboxes, that’s right no neighbors across the street. The kitchen features quartz counter tops, 42” cabinets with crown molding, stainless steel appliances, tile floor, oversized island. The large Master bedroom has a huge walk-in closet. Large bonus area is perfect for an office or for an additional family room. The upgraded A/C unit has an upgraded damper system with three separate zones. Screened Lanai and two car garage with epoxy finish round out this beauty. Minutes from Wiregrass mall, the Premium outlet malls and easy access to I75.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,651
• − Mortgage interest: −$280
• − Property taxes: −$75
• − Insurance: −$25
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,532
• − Management: −$2,532
• − Depreciation: −$145
• Taxable income: $26,062
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6,255
• After-tax cash flow: $18,335/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wesley Chapel

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #2137

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wesley Chapel, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 100,771
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,648
• Household income: $107,349
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Black 12% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.13%
• Current HPI: 263.2513
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.37%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-98.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $5,000 HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2024-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $422,000 Public Records
• 2024-08-05 Sold (MLS) $422,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-18 Price Changed $399,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-10 Price Changed $409,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-30 Price Changed $419,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-01 Price Changed $429,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-15 Listed $439,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+20.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,715 · +8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.