809 Harness Trl · Granbury, TX 76049

$179,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,472 sqft · Manufactured public records · 213 Days on market

Built 1980 10,000 sqft lot $122/sqft · 27% below area Est $226k · 20% under $2/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New roof, siding and windows, along with flooring. Brand new septic system with 2 year warranty and 2 year maintenance contract installed March 2026. Currently rented month to month do not disturb tenants.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1980

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $179,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$226,206) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $512 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 3.8% in Granbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#628 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, schools D.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 690 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 213 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask is 29% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 213 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.20%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $226,206
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: -20.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
808 Harness Trl	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-1%)	13mo	$239,900	$165	86
619 Lost Trl	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,368 (-7%)	20mo	$79,560	$58	61
1845 Boot Hill Rd	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,280 (-13%)	19mo	$159,900	$125	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $7,950
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $68,157
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76049

• Home prices YoY: -26.8%
• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 690
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,010 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $662/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$2
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $512

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,361

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
807 Branding Iron Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1287	$1,950	$1.52	44d	1	0.05mi
809 Branding Iron Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,050	$1.45	44d	1	0.06mi
805 Branding Iron Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1287	$1,950	$1.52	44d	1	0.07mi
811 Branding Iron Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,050	$1.45	44d	1	0.07mi
1713 Bronco Rd Granbury, TX	4.0	2.5	1520	$1,800	$1.18	7d	1	0.31mi
1627 Summerhill Ct Granbury, TX	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,450	$1.38	44d	1	0.63mi
1525 E 2nd St Granbury, TX	2.0	2.0	889	$1,150	$1.29	7d	1	0.72mi
1010 Teresa Ct Granbury, TX	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,600	$1.33	24d	1	0.85mi
1010 Dawn Ct Granbury, TX	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,750	$1.62	44d	1	0.89mi
3142 Shady Grove Cir Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,950	$1.34	24d	1	1.00mi
1017 Meadowlark Ln Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1725	$2,300	$1.33	13d	1	1.06mi
1111 Dove Hollow Rd Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1789	$2,399	$1.34	44d	1	1.13mi
1220 Crawford Ct Granbury, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	968	$1,739	$1.80	2d	12	1.23mi
306 Shady Grove Dr Unit 103 Granbury, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	44d	1	1.29mi
3204 Highview Ct Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	1144	$1,600	$1.40	11d	1	1.37mi
800 Chanel Dr Granbury, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1029	$1,948	$1.89	1d	10	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $2 · $24/yr

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 213 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 212 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 211 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 210 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 208 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 204 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,900 Active 203 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,900 Active 202 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $179,900 Active 199 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,900 Active 198 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 197 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 196 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 195 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    price $179,900 206-char remark

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    New roof, siding and windows, along with flooring. Brand new septic system with 2 year warranty and 2 year maintenance contract installed March 2026. Currently rented month to month do not disturb tenants.

15. 2026-04-23
    price $182,000 206-char remark

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    New roof, siding and windows, along with flooring. Brand new septic system with 2 year warranty and 2 year maintenance contract installed March 2026. Currently rented month to month do not disturb tenants.

16. 2026-04-14
    price $184,000 206-char remark

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    New roof, siding and windows, along with flooring. Brand new septic system with 2 year warranty and 2 year maintenance contract installed March 2026. Currently rented month to month do not disturb tenants.

17. 2026-04-08
    price $186,000 206-char remark

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    New roof, siding and windows, along with flooring. Brand new septic system with 2 year warranty and 2 year maintenance contract installed March 2026. Currently rented month to month do not disturb tenants.

18. 2026-03-26
    price $196,000 206-char remark

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    New roof, siding and windows, along with flooring. Brand new septic system with 2 year warranty and 2 year maintenance contract installed March 2026. Currently rented month to month do not disturb tenants.

19. 2026-03-18
    soldstatus
20. 2026-03-09
    soldstatus
21. 2026-03-04
    price $199,900 206-char remark

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    New roof, siding and windows, along with flooring. Brand new septic system with 2 year warranty and 2 year maintenance contract installed March 2026. Currently rented month to month do not disturb tenants.

22. 2025-11-17
    listed $139,900 Active 206-char remark

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    New roof, siding and windows, along with flooring. Brand new septic system with 2 year warranty and 2 year maintenance contract installed March 2026. Currently rented month to month do not disturb tenants.

23. 2025-10-31
    soldstatus
24. 2007-06-01
    soldstatus 336-char remark

    Show marketing remark (336 chars)

    Perfectly Kept Doublewide Modular Home on Almost . 5 Acre of Lake Access Property! 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath, 2 Storage Buildings Plus a Workshop! Washer and Dryer to Convey! Dual Central Heat and AC installed April 2006 with Total of 7 Tons! Exterior Painted 2006! Pre-Wired for Hot Tub! Community Has Private Boat Dock! So Much For So Little!

25. 2007-06-01
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (336 chars)

    Perfectly Kept Doublewide Modular Home on Almost . 5 Acre of Lake Access Property! 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath, 2 Storage Buildings Plus a Workshop! Washer and Dryer to Convey! Dual Central Heat and AC installed April 2006 with Total of 7 Tons! Exterior Painted 2006! Pre-Wired for Hot Tub! Community Has Private Boat Dock! So Much For So Little!

26. 2007-04-18
    historical 336-char remark

    Show marketing remark (336 chars)

    Perfectly Kept Doublewide Modular Home on Almost . 5 Acre of Lake Access Property! 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath, 2 Storage Buildings Plus a Workshop! Washer and Dryer to Convey! Dual Central Heat and AC installed April 2006 with Total of 7 Tons! Exterior Painted 2006! Pre-Wired for Hot Tub! Community Has Private Boat Dock! So Much For So Little!

27. 2007-01-18
    listed $85,000 336-char remark

    Show marketing remark (336 chars)

    Perfectly Kept Doublewide Modular Home on Almost . 5 Acre of Lake Access Property! 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath, 2 Storage Buildings Plus a Workshop! Washer and Dryer to Convey! Dual Central Heat and AC installed April 2006 with Total of 7 Tons! Exterior Painted 2006! Pre-Wired for Hot Tub! Community Has Private Boat Dock! So Much For So Little!

28. 2002-05-31
    soldstatus
29. 1990-03-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $662 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,292 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,630/yr (+$219/mo · 397.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,119
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$662
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,930
• − Management: −$1,930
• − HOA: −$24
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable income: $3,364
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$807
• After-tax cash flow: $5,340/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Granbury

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #628
• US rank: #11998

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• City population: 58,506
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,506
• Household income: $104,967
• Rent vs Own: 12.3% rent · 87.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.09%
• Current HPI: 273.1293
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.20%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+111.6% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $179,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $182,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $184,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $186,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $196,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-03-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $199,900 NTREIS
• 2025-11-17 Listed $139,900 NTREIS
• 2025-10-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-06-01 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2007-04-18 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2007-01-18 Listed $85,000 NTREIS
• 2002-05-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1990-03-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $662 · +10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.