10405 Earl Dr · Castle Point, MO 63136

$115,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,250 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 122 Days on market

Built 1955 6,499 sqft lot $92/sqft · 22% above area Est $128k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Turnkey investment opportunity with tenant in place through 12/31/2026, providing immediate and stable rental income at $1,250 per month. Seller has completed extensive upgrades, including a new roof, furnace, and central A/C, plus added living space to enhance functionality and value. Additional improvements include basement anti-mold treatment, updated plumbing and electrical systems, new windows and doors, and a full interior repaint, making this a low-maintenance asset for years to come. Listed at $115,000, this property is attractively priced to deliver strong cash flow and long-term returns for investors. Since tenant is in place property cannot be viewed till accepted contract, to not disturb the tenants, however there is a tour available upon request.

Key facts

• New furnace
• Central a/c
• Added living space

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW FURNACE
• CENTRAL A/C
• ADDED LIVING SPACE
• BASEMENT ANTI-MOLD TREATMENT
• UPDATED PLUMBING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $245 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 13.0% in Castle Point — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#313 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Riverview Gardens (suburban): math 2% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #324 of 324 in MO (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 372 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $79k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.13%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $127,748
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: -9.98%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10236 Earl Dr	0.21mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,229 (-2%)	8mo	$79,900	$65	69
10217 Viscount Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,205 (-4%)	2mo	$149,000	$124	67
10139 Edgefield Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,140 (-9%)	0mo	$119,900	$105	59
2360 Chambers Rd	0.61mi	2/1.0	1,168 (-7%)	1mo	$44,900	$38	58
10342 Edgefield Dr	0.25mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,102 (-12%)	8mo	$139,900	$127	55
10231 Monarch Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,073 (-14%)	1mo	$189,999	$177	54
1443 Attica Dr	0.64mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,302 (+4%)	3mo	$159,600	$123	54
10006 Castle Dr	0.60mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,178 (-6%)	5mo	$35,900	$30	52
10208 Monarch Dr	0.34mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,382 (+11%)	8mo	$154,900	$112	50
10421 Canfield Dr	0.42mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,073 (-14%)	5mo	$154,900	$144	48
10115 Edgefield Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,102 (-12%)	6mo	$139,900	$127	46
10626 Landseer Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,401 (+12%)	5mo	$121,000	$86	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.79% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $36,869
• Equity at exit: $56,901

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.34×
• Total profit: $107,583
• Equity at exit: $91,961

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63136

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,259 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,182/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $949

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $310	-5% $277	+0% $245	+5% $212	+10% $180
Rent	-10% $146	-5% $195	+0% $245	+5% $295	+10% $344
Rate	-1.0pp $303	-0.5pp $274	base $245	+0.5pp $215	+1.0pp $185

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10409 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,100	$1.21	22d	1	0.11mi
10501 Duke Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1140	$1,090	$0.96	44d	1	0.13mi
10512 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	888	$1,195	$1.35	15d	1	0.16mi
10504 Baron Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	8d	1	0.18mi
10421 Prince Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1023	$1,275	$1.25	24d	1	0.19mi
10322 Monarch Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1073	$1,728	$1.61	24d	1	0.23mi
13061 Lord Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,040	$1.16	22d	1	0.24mi
10557 Castle Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1023	$1,300	$1.27	15d	1	0.34mi
10139 Royal Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1016	$900	$0.89	44d	1	0.40mi
10113 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	882	$775	$0.88	44d	1	0.44mi
1520 Attica Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1062	$1,200	$1.13	24d	1	0.62mi
2326 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1056	$1,050	$0.99	24d	1	0.64mi
2257 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	24d	1	0.71mi
2321 Noll Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	975	$1,320	$1.35	24d	1	0.75mi
10129 Cavalier Ct Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	912	$1,250	$1.37	24d	1	0.78mi
2257 Luxmore Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1073	$1,495	$1.39	24d	1	0.81mi
10331 Ewell Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1658	$1,540	$0.93	4d	1	0.85mi
62 Capitol Hill Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,250	$1.01	44d	1	0.88mi
10239 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,395	$1.38	24d	1	0.95mi
1230 Roxton Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,400	$1.54	22d	1	0.97mi
9908 Norbridge Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1240	$1,650	$1.33	20d	1	0.98mi
1238 Hoyt Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1176	$1,400	$1.19	22d	1	0.99mi
9744 Lanier Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,345	$1.33	44d	1	1.00mi
10078 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	900	$1,325	$1.47	8d	1	1.00mi
1255 Bosworth Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1071	$1,575	$1.47	11d	1	1.04mi
9723 Portage Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,450	$1.43	8d	1	1.10mi
1208 Rapid Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	992	$1,375	$1.39	5d	1	1.11mi
1115 Bakewell Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	916	$1,300	$1.42	44d	1	1.11mi
10200 Tappan Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,450	$1.59	17d	1	1.13mi
2544 Netherton Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,945	$1.51	2d	1	1.13mi
10367 Coburg Lands Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,270	$1.39	44d	1	1.16mi
10508 Druid Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1122	$1,475	$1.31	17d	1	1.19mi
1009 Bliss Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,400	$1.54	44d	1	1.25mi
10304 Bon Oak Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,250	$0.83	44d	1	1.25mi
2152 Nemnich Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	1030	$1,100	$1.07	44d	1	1.29mi
2745 Rottingdean Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	825	$975	$1.18	44d	1	1.39mi
1130 Forest Home Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1025	$1,275	$1.24	44d	1	1.43mi
11321 Amboy Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1182	$1,756	$1.49	2d	1	1.44mi
9709 Balboa Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	44d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $115,000 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $115,000 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 106 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 105 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 104 DOM
15. 2026-02-16
    listed $115,000 Active 769-char remark

    Show marketing remark (769 chars)

    Turnkey investment opportunity with tenant in place through 12/31/2026, providing immediate and stable rental income at $1,250 per month. Seller has completed extensive upgrades, including a new roof, furnace, and central A/C, plus added living space to enhance functionality and value. Additional improvements include basement anti-mold treatment, updated plumbing and electrical systems, new windows and doors, and a full interior repaint, making this a low-maintenance asset for years to come. Listed at $115,000, this property is attractively priced to deliver strong cash flow and long-term returns for investors. Since tenant is in place property cannot be viewed till accepted contract, to not disturb the tenants, however there is a tour available upon request.

16. 2023-08-29
    historical $1,200
17. 2023-08-23
    listed $1,200
18. 2023-05-05
    soldstatus Closed 785-char remark

    Show marketing remark (785 chars)

    Add this cash flowing rental to your portfolio! Home is currently leased for $885/month. Close proximity to the elementary school and major roads make this an easy one to keep leased. There is a professional property manager in place that is willing to stay on with the new owner. This home is being sold as a package consisting of eight properties that are all leased. An accepted contract is required before showing any of the properties. Total asking price for all eight is $389,000. Owner is not willing to separate, Buyer must purchase properties together. The package includes the following addresses: 10405 Earl Dr 63136, 6003 Emma Ave 63136, 4828 Farlin Ave 63115, 5955 Floy Ave 63147, 8937 Lucerne Ct 63136, 2148 Oakdale Ave 63121, 5330 Queens Ave 63115, 6218 Tyndall Dr 63134

19. 2023-03-22
    status Pending 785-char remark

    Show marketing remark (785 chars)

    Add this cash flowing rental to your portfolio! Home is currently leased for $885/month. Close proximity to the elementary school and major roads make this an easy one to keep leased. There is a professional property manager in place that is willing to stay on with the new owner. This home is being sold as a package consisting of eight properties that are all leased. An accepted contract is required before showing any of the properties. Total asking price for all eight is $389,000. Owner is not willing to separate, Buyer must purchase properties together. The package includes the following addresses: 10405 Earl Dr 63136, 6003 Emma Ave 63136, 4828 Farlin Ave 63115, 5955 Floy Ave 63147, 8937 Lucerne Ct 63136, 2148 Oakdale Ave 63121, 5330 Queens Ave 63115, 6218 Tyndall Dr 63134

20. 2023-03-15
    listed $49,000 Active 785-char remark

    Show marketing remark (785 chars)

    Add this cash flowing rental to your portfolio! Home is currently leased for $885/month. Close proximity to the elementary school and major roads make this an easy one to keep leased. There is a professional property manager in place that is willing to stay on with the new owner. This home is being sold as a package consisting of eight properties that are all leased. An accepted contract is required before showing any of the properties. Total asking price for all eight is $389,000. Owner is not willing to separate, Buyer must purchase properties together. The package includes the following addresses: 10405 Earl Dr 63136, 6003 Emma Ave 63136, 4828 Farlin Ave 63115, 5955 Floy Ave 63147, 8937 Lucerne Ct 63136, 2148 Oakdale Ave 63121, 5330 Queens Ave 63115, 6218 Tyndall Dr 63134

21. 2016-08-10
    soldstatus
22. 2006-10-10
    soldstatus $79,000
23. 1994-07-14
    soldstatus
24. 1992-04-23
    soldstatus $38,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,182 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,182 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,105
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,182
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,208
• − Management: −$1,208
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $1,144
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$275
• After-tax cash flow: $2,665/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverview Gardens
• NCES district ID: 2926670
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,759
• Composite: 4.22/100
• National rank: #10058
• State rank: #324 of 324 in MO

Livability — Castle Point

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #14373

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Castle Point, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 283,259
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,929
• Household income: $41,154
• Rent vs Own: 53.1% rent · 46.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3085.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.79%
• Current HPI: 420.28
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+200.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-16 Listed $115,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-29 Rental Removed $1,200 RENTLY
• 2023-08-23 Listed for Rent $1,200 RENTLY
• 2023-05-05 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-22 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-15 Listed $49,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $79,000 Public Records
• 1994-07-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1992-04-23 Sold (Public Records) $38,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,182 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.