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4714 Painted Bunting Ln
F Composite 33.6
Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +11.0/15.0
  • Cash flow +5.3/30.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • Schools +3.7/10.0
  • Livability +3.5/5.0
  • 1% rule +3.3/10.0
  • Rent growth +2.9/5.0
  • DSCR +0.0/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$265,000

4714 Painted Bunting Ln · Baytown, TX 77521
4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,817 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 114 Days on market
Built 2021 Good condition 5,998 sqft lot 2-car garage $146/sqft · 8% below area Est $288k · 8% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Built in 2021, this beautifully maintained one-story home offers the perfect blend of modern style and everyday comfort. Featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a desirable open-concept layout, the spacious living area flows seamlessly into the contemporary kitchen, creating an ideal space for entertaining and family gatherings. Enjoy the clean, fresh feel of hard-surface flooring throughout with no carpet to maintain. The private primary suite is complemented by three additional bedrooms, providing flexibility for guests, a home office, or hobbies. Step outside to a fenced backyard with a covered patio, perfect for relaxing or grilling year-round.

Key facts

  • Covered patio
  • Fenced backyard
  • Scenic lake

Tags

OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUTHARD-SURFACE FLOORINGFENCED BACKYARDCOVERED PATIOSCENIC LAKEWALKING TRAILS

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-591 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (29.2% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (16.9% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $188k (29.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
  • Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
  • Zoned schools: Jessie Lee Pumphrey El (555 students, 76% FRL); E F Green Junior School (1,020 students, 67% FRL); Goose Creek Memorial (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #924 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 2,223 students, 70% FRL).
  • Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 972 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 47d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price.
  • Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $187,663 (29.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
  4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
  8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
  9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.83%
Cap rate
3.62%
Cash-on-cash
-9.56%
DSCR
0.57
GRM
10.0

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$287,583
List price
$265,000
Delta
-7.85%
Verdict
FAIR
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
8710 Ruddy Duck Ct 0.07mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,831 (+1%) 1mo $264,900 $145 90
8827 W Crescent Lake Cir 0.18mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,831 (+1%) 0mo $279,900 $153 85
9411 Dazzling Tentacle Dr 0.41mi 4/2.0 1,760 (-3%) 2mo $286,990 $163 74
9323 Dazzling Tentacle Dr 0.49mi 4/2.0 1,760 (-3%) 2mo $244,890 $139 70
9227 Alaska Shores Dr 0.49mi 4/2.0 1,900 (+5%) 2mo $272,290 $143 68
4311 Cedar Ash Dr 0.56mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,801 (-1%) 0mo $263,000 $146 67
9315 Captain Terrace Dr 0.49mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,880 (+4%) 2mo $318,990 $170 65
4802 Stone Bridge St 0.62mi 4/2.0 1,880 (+4%) 1mo $249,900 $133 65
9319 Dazzling Tentacle Dr 0.48mi 4/2.5 1,968 (+8%) 2mo $255,690 $130 60
4118 Holland View Ln 0.70mi 4/2.0 1,683 (-7%) 0mo $220,000 $131 55
9307 Captain Terrace Dr 0.49mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,600 (-12%) 2mo $275,990 $172 51
9210 Callum Nest Ct 0.49mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,572 (-14%) 2mo $265,990 $169 48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-35.5%
Equity multiple
-0.13×
Total profit
$-83,581
Equity at exit
$39,512
10-year hold
IRR
-62.2%
Equity multiple
-0.79×
Total profit
$-133,102
Equity at exit
$22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
86 active · 92 under contract
Months of supply
5.7 mo (18%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$271,990 ($149/sqft)
Median days on market
63 d
This list price
41% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+6.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77521

Rents YoY
1.5%
Active inventory
972
Price-to-rent
10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,203 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,390
Tax from tax record
$782 /mo · $9,383/yr
Insurance
$110
HOA
$50
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$463
Net cashflow
$-591

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,952
Max offer price $187,663
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-441 -5% $-516 +0% $-591 +5% $-666 +10% $-741
Rent -10% $-765 -5% $-678 +0% $-591 +5% $-504 +10% $-417
Rate -1.0pp $-458 -0.5pp $-524 base $-591 +0.5pp $-660 +1.0pp $-730

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$66,250
Closing costs
$7,950
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 28 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
4703 Goldeneye Dr Baytown, TX 4.0 2.0 2324 $2,600 $1.12 6d 1 0.02mi
4606 Wild Flora Way Baytown, TX 4.0 2.0 2279 $2,366 $1.04 108d 1 0.10mi
8810 Wooster Trails Dr Baytown, TX 3.0 2.0 1460 $1,650 $1.13 10d 1 0.27mi
8814 Bar Harbor Dr Baytown, TX 4.0 2.0 1683 $1,896 $1.13 120d 1 0.37mi
5202 El Tigre Ln Baytown, TX 3.0 2.0 1819 $2,105 $1.16 3d 1 0.38mi
4730 Black Rock St Baytown, TX 3.0 2.0 1540 $1,973 $1.28 67d 1 0.52mi
4151 Saw Mill Peak Ln Baytown, TX 4.0 2.0 1619 $1,951 $1.21 54d 1 0.53mi
4122 Saw Mill Peak Ln Baytown, TX 4.0 2.0 1612 $2,001 $1.24 29d 1 0.54mi
9214 Burnet Fields Dr Baytown, TX 3.0 2.0 1461 $1,801 $1.23 139d 1 0.55mi
8317 Black Pool St Baytown, TX 3.0 2.0 1296 $1,400 $1.08 10d 1 0.56mi
5130 Red Drum Dr Baytown, TX 3.0 2.0 1522 $2,050 $1.35 46d 1 0.57mi
9502 Brookside Point Dr Baytown, TX 4.0 3.0 2119 $2,800 $1.32 139d 1 0.63mi
8110 Berkely Ct Baytown, TX 4.0 2.0 1828 $1,946 $1.06 100d 1 0.71mi
9602 Atwood Lake Dr Baytown, TX 5.0 2.0 1847 $2,150 $1.16 18d 1 0.72mi
4818 Bentonite Blvd Baytown, TX 3.0 2.0 1825 $1,930 $1.06 0d 1 0.73mi
8002 Ginger Park Dr Baytown, TX 3.0 2.5 1945 $2,065 $1.06 18d 1 0.90mi
5426 Cinnamon Lake Dr Baytown, TX 4.0 2.5 2240 $2,200 $0.98 139d 1 0.95mi
5446 Aloe Ave Baytown, TX 4.0 2.5 2161 $2,150 $0.99 7d 1 1.01mi
8311 Caraway Lake Cir Baytown, TX 4.0 3.0 2391 $2,450 $1.02 11d 1 1.03mi
7819 Adonis Ave Baytown, TX 4.0 2.5 2395 $2,121 $0.89 4d 1 1.03mi
9918 Lockridge Manor Dr Baytown, TX 4.0 2.0 1932 $2,345 $1.21 19d 1 1.04mi
5818 Starling Dr Baytown, TX 4.0 2.5 2039 $2,295 $1.13 5d 1 1.05mi
4847 Camden Bristol Dr Baytown, TX 4.0 2.5 2289 $2,695 $1.18 47d 1 1.07mi
5631 Cinnamon Lake Dr Baytown, TX 3.0 2.5 1999 $2,126 $1.06 51d 1 1.07mi
6019 Standpiper Loop Baytown, TX 4.0 2.0 1656 $2,045 $1.23 9d 1 1.15mi
8002 Sesame St Baytown, TX 3.0 2.0 1819 $2,100 $1.15 113d 1 1.20mi
7453 Eastpoint Blvd Baytown, TX 3.0 2.0 1514 $1,900 $1.25 139d 1 1.33mi
8026 Rosemary Dr Baytown, TX 4.0 2.5 2390 $2,150 $0.90 139d 1 1.33mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community
Member of Goose Creek Landing Community AssociationAnnual association fee of $605 covering recreation facilities

Exterior

Parking
Attached 2-car garageDrivewayGarage door opener
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewer
Home design
Residential propertyEntry level: first floor
Construction
Built in 2021Brick and cement siding exteriorComposition roofSlab foundation
Exterior features
Covered patioPatioDeckFenced backyardSubdivision lot setting

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherDisposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveKitchen islandPantry
Bedrooms
Primary bedroom (first floor) — 15x12Bedroom (first floor) — 10x10Bedroom (first floor) — 10x11Bedroom (first floor) — 10x11
Flooring
Plank flooringTileVinyl
Bathrooms
2 full bathroomsDouble vanity in primary bath
Heating & cooling
Central heating (gas)Central air (electric)Programmable thermostat
Interior features
Double vanityKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPantryTub with showerCeiling fansProgrammable thermostat
Laundry & utility
Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-09-23
    days on market $265,000 Active 114 DOM
  2. 2026-09-22
    days on market $265,000 Active 113 DOM
  3. 2026-09-21
    days on market $265,000 Active 112 DOM
  4. 2026-09-20
    days on market $265,000 Active 111 DOM
  5. 2026-09-19
    days on market $265,000 Active 110 DOM
  6. 2026-09-18
    days on market $265,000 Active 109 DOM
  7. 2026-09-17
    days on market $265,000 Active 108 DOM
  8. 2026-09-16
    days on market $265,000 Active 107 DOM
  9. 2026-09-15
    days on market $265,000 Active 106 DOM
  10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $265,000 Active 105 DOM
  11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $265,000 Active 104 DOM
  12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $265,000 Active 103 DOM
  13. 2026-09-11
    pricedays on market $265,000 Active 102 DOM
  14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $275,000 Active 96 DOM
  15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $275,000 Active 95 DOM
  16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 93 DOM
  17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 91 DOM
  18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $275,000 Active 90 DOM
  19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $275,000 Active 89 DOM
  20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $275,000 Active 88 DOM
  21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $275,000 Active 87 DOM
  22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $275,000 Active 85 DOM
  23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $275,000 Active 84 DOM
  24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $275,000 Active 83 DOM
  25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $275,000 Active 82 DOM
  26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $275,000 Active 81 DOM
  27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $275,000 Active 80 DOM
  28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $275,000 Active 79 DOM
  29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $275,000 Active 78 DOM
  30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $275,000 Active 77 DOM
  31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $275,000 Active 76 DOM
  32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $275,000 Active 75 DOM
  33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $275,000 Active 74 DOM
  34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $275,000 Active 73 DOM
  35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $275,000 Active 72 DOM
  36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $275,000 Active 71 DOM
  37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $275,000 Active 70 DOM
  38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $275,000 Active 69 DOM
  39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $275,000 Active 68 DOM
  40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $275,000 Active 66 DOM
  41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $275,000 Active 65 DOM
  42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $275,000 Active 64 DOM
  43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 63 DOM
  44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 60 DOM
  45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $275,000 Active 58 DOM
  46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $275,000 Active 57 DOM
  47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $275,000 Active 55 DOM
  48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $275,000 Active 53 DOM
  49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $275,000 Active 52 DOM
  50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $275,000 Active 51 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax
$9,383 · $782/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$9,383 · $782/mo
Expected delta
$0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
  • 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$26,441
− Mortgage interest
−$14,844
− Property taxes
−$9,383
− Insurance
−$1,325
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,115
− Management
−$2,115
− HOA
−$600
− Depreciation
−$7,709
Taxable loss
−$11,651
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$2,796
After-tax cash flow
$-4,300/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,085–$27,255 screening

This well-maintained, one-story home offers a good condition with a modern kitchen and a spacious layout. It is ready for a new owner to move in and enjoy.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Paint the exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and the home's overall appearance.
  • Both Clean the gutters — Clean gutters improve the home's appearance and prevent water damage to the exterior walls.

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Jessie Lee Pumphrey El Middle E F Green Junior School High Goose Creek Memorial F TX #924/1,632 Nat'l #9,347/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Goose Creek CISD
NCES district ID
4821150
Math proficiency
37% ▼ -11.00%
Reading proficiency
36% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income
$52,468
Composite
31.84/100
National rank
#5877
State rank
#473 of 826 in TX
C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Baytown

Score
69/100
State rank
#412
US rank
#8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Baytown, TX
County
Harris County · 5,571,493 people
City population
135,579
Metro
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP)
69,038
Household income
$73,629
Rent vs Own
41.8% rent · 58.2% own
Severe rent burden
11% of renters

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
5,571,493 people
By 2030
6,089,821 · +9.3%
By 2040
7,142,806 · +28.2%
By 2050
8,185,864 · +46.9%
By 2075
10,574,329 · +89.8%
By 2100
12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
Race & ethnicity
Hispanic / Latino 50% White 28% Two or more races 18% Black 17% Asian 3%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 42% Puerto Rican 2%
Common ancestry
Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
Foreign-born
20% · Canada, Vietnam
Languages at home
59% English-only · Spanish 36% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

2024 margin
Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
2008→2024 swing
+3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
All cycles
2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

-11.3% since first listed
6 events — show timeline
  • 2026-06-01 Listed $275,000 HARMLS
  • 2024-10-18 Listing Removed HARMLS
  • 2024-10-05 Price Changed $290,000 HARMLS
  • 2024-10-05 Relisted HARMLS
  • 2024-10-01 Listing Removed HARMLS
  • 2024-04-06 Listed $310,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+62.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,383 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…