611 Hedgestone · Canyon Lake, TX 78133

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1996 0.78 ac lot $2/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

WOW! Private oversized lot in a great Canyon Lake location. Surrounded by mature oak trees & Peaceful Texas Hill Country feel yet close to restaurants, grocery stores, medical offices & everyday conveniences. Recently updated HVAC, New Roof in 2022, 2 storage sheds, spacious back porch, ramp access & luxury walk-in shower. Plenty of room to relax, entertain & make it your own. Enjoy the breezes, privacy & Hill Country lifestyle this property offers.

Key facts

• Mature oak trees
• Spacious back porch
• 2 storage sheds

Tags

• PRIVATE OVERSIZED LOT
• CANYON LAKE LOCATION
• MATURE OAK TREES
• SPACIOUS BACK PORCH
• LUXURY WALK-IN SHOWER
• 2 STORAGE SHEDS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: TANGLEWOOD SHORES
• Financial info: Down payment resource not available
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with $24 annual fee; Association transfer fee of $175; Subdivision amenities include a pool and playground

Exterior

• Parking: Details not provided
• Security: Details not provided
• Utilities: City water; Septic system; Water system available
• Home design: Pre-owned single-family residence; Accessible/adaptive home; Bathroom on first floor; Bedroom on first floor; Ramp to main level
• Construction: Approximately 30 years old; Siding exterior; Composition roof; Other foundation (see remarks)
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck/balcony; Mature trees / partially wooded; Storm doors; Ramped entrance

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (13 x 13); Stove/Range; Microwave; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on lower level with walk-in closet (14 x 13); Bedroom 2 (9 x 14); Bedroom 3 (14 x 13)
• Flooring: Carpeting; Vinyl flooring; Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with separate tub and shower and double vanity; Grab bars in bathroom(s); Stall shower
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living/Dining room combination; Utility room inside; Ground level / no steps; All bedrooms on main/lower level; Walk-in closets; All window coverings remain; Smoke alarm
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level / utility room inside; Washer connection; Dryer connection

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $351 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 2.3% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rebecca Creek El (math 55% / reading 52%, grade C, #686 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 605 students, 51% FRL); Canyon Lake H S (math 46% / reading 56%, grade D+, #482 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 1,038 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1014 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,901 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.53%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-15,993
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-8,206
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78133

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 1014
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,019 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,318/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$2
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $351

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,574

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
578 Misty Glen Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1277	$1,850	$1.45	12d	1	0.13mi
1123 Hedgestone Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,450	$1.08	23d	1	0.33mi
1660 McIver Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.5	1378	$3,450	$2.50	43d	1	0.37mi
2121 Fuller Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	1.0	1130	$1,550	$1.37	43d	1	1.00mi
1200 Willow Dr Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	2.5	1360	$1,875	$1.38	43d	1	1.19mi
1285 Live Oak Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1314	$1,795	$1.37	43d	1	1.24mi
537 Tamarack Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	1.0	1357	$1,820	$1.34	4d	1	1.29mi
691 Tamarack Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1659	$1,495	$0.90	23d	1	1.32mi
1251 Canyon Shrs Unit 1 Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	23d	1	1.47mi
1251 Canyon Shrs Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	43d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $2 · $24/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $199,900 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    statusdays on market $199,900 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 New 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-21
    listed $199,900 New
15. 1994-11-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,318 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,658 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,340/yr (+$195/mo · 177.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,223
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,318
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,938
• − Management: −$1,938
• − HOA: −$24
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $992
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$238
• After-tax cash flow: $3,976/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon Lake, TX
• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 42,159
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,959
• Household income: $83,853
• Rent vs Own: 15.2% rent · 84.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.36%
• Current HPI: 218.4633
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.20%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $199,900 LERA
• 1994-11-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,318 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.