404 Turner St · Warren, AR 71671

$128,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,244 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 124 Days on market

Built 1910 0.33 ac lot $57/sqft · 6% below area Est $136k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 4 bed 2 bath with nice fenced in back yard. Ample room inside for family or guests, over 2200 square ft. Inviting front porch with steps and arched entry way. Fresh paint, small town setting with timeless charm in the heart of Warren.

Key facts

• Timeless charm
• Front porch
• Arched entry way

Tags

• FENCED IN BACK YARD
• FRONT PORCH
• ARCHED ENTRY WAY
• TIMELESS CHARM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $128k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $316 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $128k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#69 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Warren School District (town): math 26% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #198 of 238 in AR (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($885 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.5% local appreciation)).
• Bradley County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $128k implies a 205% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,640 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.57%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $136,147
• List price: $128,000
• Delta: -5.98%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
111 Scotta St St	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,275 (+1%)	14mo	$83,000	$36	77
611 S Main	0.35mi	4/2.0	2,316 (+3%)	4mo	$73,500	$32	75
404 Marie Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0	2,290 (+2%)	1mo	$215,000	$94	71
104 Wheeler	0.13mi	4/2.0	2,484 (+11%)	11mo	$115,000	$46	67
308 Turner	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,982 (-12%)	6mo	$33,000	$17	66
320 E Cedar St	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,343 (+4%)	4mo	$132,000	$56	60
211 E Church	0.37mi	4/2.5	2,567 (+14%)	16mo	$80,000	$31	44
302 Park Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,979 (-12%)	14mo	$139,000	$70	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.47% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $25,383
• Equity at exit: $46,834

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $75,491
• Equity at exit: $64,741

Cash invested: $35,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71671

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,360 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$671
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $413/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $961

Max offer price $128,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $388	-5% $352	+0% $316	+5% $279	+10% $243
Rent	-10% $208	-5% $262	+0% $316	+5% $369	+10% $423
Rate	-1.0pp $380	-0.5pp $348	base $316	+0.5pp $282	+1.0pp $249

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,000
• Closing costs: $3,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $128,000 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $128,000 Active 123 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $128,000 Active 122 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $128,000 Active 121 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $128,000 Active 120 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $128,000 Active 118 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $128,000 Active 117 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $128,000 Active 114 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $128,000 Active 113 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $128,000 Active 112 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $128,000 Active 111 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $128,000 Active 108 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $128,000 Active 107 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $128,000 Active 106 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $128,000 Active 105 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $128,000 Active 104 DOM
17. 2026-02-06
    listed $128,000 New Listing 243-char remark

    Show marketing remark (243 chars)

    Spacious 4 bed 2 bath with nice fenced in back yard. Ample room inside for family or guests, over 2200 square ft. Inviting front porch with steps and arched entry way. Fresh paint, small town setting with timeless charm in the heart of Warren.

18. 2025-03-17
    historical
19. 2025-01-06
    price $72,000
20. 2024-09-20
    listed $75,000 New Listing
21. 2021-05-07
    soldstatus $42,000
22. 2021-04-15
    soldstatus $42,000 Sold
23. 2021-01-26
    historical
24. 2020-09-21
    status Under Con. Before Listed
25. 2020-04-01
    historical
26. 2019-09-17
    price $49,999
27. 2019-07-17
    price $55,000
28. 2019-03-23
    listed $60,000 New Listing
29. 2015-11-06
    soldstatus $50,000 Sold
30. 2015-09-17
    status Under Contract
31. 2015-06-03
    listed $55,500 Active
32. 2014-05-01
    historical
33. 2013-01-22
    listed $69,500
34. 2002-08-27
    soldstatus $32,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $413 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $819 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$406/yr (+$34/mo · 98.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,323
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,170
• − Property taxes: −$413
• − Insurance: −$640
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,306
• − Management: −$1,306
• − Depreciation: −$3,724
• Taxable income: $1,764
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$423
• After-tax cash flow: $3,363/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren School District
• NCES district ID: 0500006
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,986
• Composite: 19.22/100
• National rank: #8810
• State rank: #198 of 238 in AR

Livability — Warren

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #69
• US rank: #8546

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warren, AR
• Population (ZIP): 8,788

Population outlook (Bradley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,347 people
• By 2030: 9,925 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 9,122 · -11.8%
• By 2050: 8,336 · -19.4%
• By 2075: 6,893 · -33.4%
• By 2100: 5,721 · -44.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 28% Hispanic / Latino 16% Native American 6% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Bradley

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.0) · D 29.9% · R 69.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.4pp · 2024: -39.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.0 2020: R+30.7 2016: R+23.4 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+14.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.47%
• Current HPI: 114.1937
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+300.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Listed $128,000 CARMLS
• 2025-03-17 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-01-06 Price Changed $72,000 CARMLS
• 2024-09-20 Listed $75,000 CARMLS
• 2021-05-07 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records
• 2021-04-15 Sold (MLS) $42,000 CARMLS
• 2021-01-26 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2020-09-21 Pending — CARMLS
• 2020-04-01 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2019-09-17 Price Changed $49,999 CARMLS
• 2019-07-17 Price Changed $55,000 CARMLS
• 2019-03-23 Listed $60,000 CARMLS
• 2015-11-06 Sold (MLS) $50,000 CARMLS
• 2015-09-17 Pending — CARMLS
• 2015-06-03 Listed $55,500 CARMLS
• 2014-05-01 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2013-01-22 Listed $69,500 CARMLS
• 2002-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $413 · -26.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.