1719 Harvest Lake Dr · Sienna, TX 77459

$385,383

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,730 sqft · Townhouse · 99 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $223/sqft · 15% above area Est $335k · 15% over $137/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.8/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

The single-story Reflection duet home features tall foyer ceilings leading past a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and dining area. The great room boasts 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite includes soaring ceilings and a bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. The laundry and mudroom with bench connect to the 2-car garage.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Net-zero ready
• Oversized cabinetry

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• UNDER-CABINET LIGHTING
• OVERSIZED CABINETRY
• NET-ZERO READY
• INDOOR AIRPLUS CERTIFIED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $385k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $175 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $328k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $328k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Rose El (math 29% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 1,209 students, 83% FRL); Billy Baines Middle (math 47% / reading 53%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 1,296 students, 37% FRL); Ridge Point H S (math 61% / reading 69%, grade B, #198 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 3,170 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 35% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1229 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($351k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $328,082 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.95%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $335,372
• List price: $385,383
• Delta: 14.91%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10302 Water Harbor Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,730 (0%)	14mo	$358,475	$207	80
10319 Tranquil Lake Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,770 (+2%)	12mo	$398,068	$225	79
10318 Water Harbor Dr	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,730 (0%)	9mo	$359,231	$208	79
10306 Water Harbor Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,770 (+2%)	12mo	$403,546	$228	78
1623 Anchor Breeze Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,770 (+2%)	12mo	$339,814	$192	78
1610 Sterling Water Dr	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,730 (0%)	13mo	$328,240	$190	78
1610 Anchor Breeze Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,730 (0%)	18mo	$376,960	$218	75
10310 Water Harbor Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,604 (-7%)	13mo	$390,289	$243	68
1543 Cathedral Bend Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,638 (-5%)	10mo	$299,950	$183	64
1571 Rustling Creek Dr	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,941 (+12%)	2mo	$299,500	$154	56
1554 Rustling Creek Dr	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,858 (+7%)	14mo	$309,000	$166	54
1519 Cathedral Bend Dr	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,908 (+10%)	18mo	$299,999	$157	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-39,043
• Equity at exit: $80,826

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-37,272
• Equity at exit: $74,864

Cash invested: $107,907 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1229
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,281 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,021
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,177/yr
• Insurance: −$161
• HOA: −$137
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$689
• Net cashflow: $175

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,059

Max offer price $385,383

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $393	-5% $284	+0% $175	+5% $66	+10% $-43
Rent	-10% $-84	-5% $46	+0% $175	+5% $305	+10% $434
Rate	-1.0pp $369	-0.5pp $273	base $175	+0.5pp $75	+1.0pp $-26

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,346
• Closing costs: $11,561
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	45d	1	0.11mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	23d	1	0.82mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	0d	1	0.94mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $137 · $1,644/yr

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $385,383 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $385,383 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $385,383 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,119 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,119 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,119 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,119 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $399,119 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $399,119 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,119 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,119 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,119 Active 79 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,119 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-05-19
    price $433,383 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    The single-story Reflection duet home features tall foyer ceilings leading past a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and dining area. The great room boasts 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite includes soaring ceilings and a bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. The laundry and mudroom with bench connect to the 2-car garage.

15. 2026-05-16
    price $433,119 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    The single-story Reflection duet home features tall foyer ceilings leading past a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and dining area. The great room boasts 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite includes soaring ceilings and a bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. The laundry and mudroom with bench connect to the 2-car garage.

16. 2026-05-15
    price $403,119 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    The single-story Reflection duet home features tall foyer ceilings leading past a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and dining area. The great room boasts 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite includes soaring ceilings and a bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. The laundry and mudroom with bench connect to the 2-car garage.

17. 2026-05-07
    price $399,119 909-char remark

    Show marketing remark (909 chars)

    Stunning new construction by Beazer Homes at Sienna. This one-story home offers an open-concept layout with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, a spacious primary suite, an open kitchen/dining, and modern finishes throughout. The kitchen features quartz countertops, stainless ENERGY STAR® appliances, under-cabinet lighting, and oversized cabinetry opening to the family room—ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Built with Beazer’s industry-leading energy performance, this home is net-zero ready and Indoor airPLUS Certified, featuring spray-foam insulation, ERV ventilation, MERV-11 filtration, a tankless water heater, high-performance Low-E windows, and a smart thermostat for healthier indoor air quality and lower utility costs. Enjoy low-maintenance living with front and back lawn care included, plus access to Sienna’s resort-style amenities, parks, trails, and Fort Bend ISD schools.

18. 2026-05-05
    price $399,119 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    The single-story Reflection duet home features tall foyer ceilings leading past a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and dining area. The great room boasts 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite includes soaring ceilings and a bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. The laundry and mudroom with bench connect to the 2-car garage.

19. 2026-04-07
    price $389,119 909-char remark

    Show marketing remark (909 chars)

    Stunning new construction by Beazer Homes at Sienna. This one-story home offers an open-concept layout with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, a spacious primary suite, an open kitchen/dining, and modern finishes throughout. The kitchen features quartz countertops, stainless ENERGY STAR® appliances, under-cabinet lighting, and oversized cabinetry opening to the family room—ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Built with Beazer’s industry-leading energy performance, this home is net-zero ready and Indoor airPLUS Certified, featuring spray-foam insulation, ERV ventilation, MERV-11 filtration, a tankless water heater, high-performance Low-E windows, and a smart thermostat for healthier indoor air quality and lower utility costs. Enjoy low-maintenance living with front and back lawn care included, plus access to Sienna’s resort-style amenities, parks, trails, and Fort Bend ISD schools.

20. 2026-03-17
    price $389,119 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    The single-story Reflection duet home features tall foyer ceilings leading past a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and dining area. The great room boasts 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite includes soaring ceilings and a bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. The laundry and mudroom with bench connect to the 2-car garage.

21. 2026-03-14
    listed $400,119 Active 909-char remark

    Show marketing remark (909 chars)

    Stunning new construction by Beazer Homes at Sienna. This one-story home offers an open-concept layout with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, a spacious primary suite, an open kitchen/dining, and modern finishes throughout. The kitchen features quartz countertops, stainless ENERGY STAR® appliances, under-cabinet lighting, and oversized cabinetry opening to the family room—ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Built with Beazer’s industry-leading energy performance, this home is net-zero ready and Indoor airPLUS Certified, featuring spray-foam insulation, ERV ventilation, MERV-11 filtration, a tankless water heater, high-performance Low-E windows, and a smart thermostat for healthier indoor air quality and lower utility costs. Enjoy low-maintenance living with front and back lawn care included, plus access to Sienna’s resort-style amenities, parks, trails, and Fort Bend ISD schools.

22. 2026-02-19
    price $400,119 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    The single-story Reflection duet home features tall foyer ceilings leading past a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and dining area. The great room boasts 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite includes soaring ceilings and a bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. The laundry and mudroom with bench connect to the 2-car garage.

23. 2026-02-12
    price $380,687 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    The single-story Reflection duet home features tall foyer ceilings leading past a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and dining area. The great room boasts 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite includes soaring ceilings and a bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. The laundry and mudroom with bench connect to the 2-car garage.

24. 2026-02-11
    price $379,687 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    The single-story Reflection duet home features tall foyer ceilings leading past a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and dining area. The great room boasts 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite includes soaring ceilings and a bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. The laundry and mudroom with bench connect to the 2-car garage.

25. 2026-02-07
    listed $378,850 Active 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    The single-story Reflection duet home features tall foyer ceilings leading past a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and dining area. The great room boasts 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite includes soaring ceilings and a bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. The laundry and mudroom with bench connect to the 2-car garage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,177 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,053 · $588/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,876/yr (+$490/mo · 499.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,370
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,587
• − Property taxes: −$1,177
• − Insurance: −$1,927
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,150
• − Management: −$3,150
• − HOA: −$1,644
• − Depreciation: −$11,211
• Taxable loss: −$4,475
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,074
• After-tax cash flow: $3,177/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This stunning new construction townhouse is move-in ready with modern finishes and energy-efficient systems, offering a high-ROI opportunity for investors.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both smart home integration — increases convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both smart home integration — increases convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+14.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $433,383 Zillow
• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $433,119 Zillow
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $403,119 Zillow
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $399,119 HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $399,119 Zillow
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $389,119 HARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $389,119 Zillow
• 2026-03-14 Listed $400,119 HARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $400,119 Zillow
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $380,687 Zillow
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $379,687 Zillow
• 2026-02-07 Listed $378,850 Zillow

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,177 · +17.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.