16711 Marsh Creek Rd Spc 1 · Antioch, CA 94517

$299,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,378 sqft · Other · 21 Days on market

Built 2016

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Clayton Palms newer manufactured home - High ceilings and larger than average windows for lots of drama and light, coffered ceiling in great room, large bar with granite counters, lots of dark wood cabinets, inside laundry room with washer and dryer included. Large main bath with walk in closet, dual sinks and spacious bedroom adjoining; hall bath and two other bedrooms, one is set up as an office with a double door from living area and a door to hallway. Separate storage building under awning, with room for more than one car, depending on where you postition the storage building. Central heat and AC, all the amenities, gas range, side by side refrigerator and lots of pantry storage. You won't believe the amenities here. Community pool, club house, playground, dog park, game court, RV storage, and much more.

Key facts

• Large breakfast bar
• Granite countertops
• Dark wood cabinetry

Tags

• HIGH EFFICIENCY A C SYSTEM
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE BREAKFAST BAR
• DARK WOOD CABINETRY
• GENEROUS PANTRY STORAGE
• INSIDE LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Pets allowed with number and size limits; Community sport pool

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Individual electric meter
• Home design: Manufactured home; 2016 construction; Shingle roof
• Construction: Lap siding exterior
• Exterior features: Yard space; Rectangular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Breakfast bar; Dishwasher; Gas range / cooktop; Self-cleaning oven; Refrigerator; Solid surface counters
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (street level)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bath with stall shower, double vanity, granite, and walk-in closet(s); Other bath with shower over tub and granite
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Solid surface counters; Double-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer; Laundry cabinets; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $658 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $299k).
• Recommended offer: $295k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.9% in Antioch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#782 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Brentwood Union Elementary (suburban): math 51% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #268 of 1,400 in CA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $245k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $294,515 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.38%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-6,459
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $48,708
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94517

• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,532 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$374 /mo · $4,485/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$742
• Net cashflow: $658

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,700

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    status $299,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-21
    listed $299,000 Active
15. 2022-08-11
    soldstatus $245,000 Sold 824-char remark

    Show marketing remark (824 chars)

    Clayton Palms newer manufactured home - High ceilings and larger than average windows for lots of drama and light, coffered ceiling in great room, large bar with granite counters, lots of dark wood cabinets, inside laundry room with washer and dryer included. Large main bath with walk in closet, dual sinks and spacious bedroom adjoining; hall bath and two other bedrooms, one is set up as an office with a double door from living area and a door to hallway. Separate storage building under awning, with room for more than one car, depending on where you postition the storage building. Central heat and AC, all the amenities, gas range, side by side refrigerator and lots of pantry storage. You won't believe the amenities here. Community pool, club house, playground, dog park, game court, RV storage, and much more.

16. 2022-07-11
    status Pending 824-char remark

    Show marketing remark (824 chars)

    Clayton Palms newer manufactured home - High ceilings and larger than average windows for lots of drama and light, coffered ceiling in great room, large bar with granite counters, lots of dark wood cabinets, inside laundry room with washer and dryer included. Large main bath with walk in closet, dual sinks and spacious bedroom adjoining; hall bath and two other bedrooms, one is set up as an office with a double door from living area and a door to hallway. Separate storage building under awning, with room for more than one car, depending on where you postition the storage building. Central heat and AC, all the amenities, gas range, side by side refrigerator and lots of pantry storage. You won't believe the amenities here. Community pool, club house, playground, dog park, game court, RV storage, and much more.

17. 2022-06-25
    listed $245,000 New 824-char remark

    Show marketing remark (824 chars)

    Clayton Palms newer manufactured home - High ceilings and larger than average windows for lots of drama and light, coffered ceiling in great room, large bar with granite counters, lots of dark wood cabinets, inside laundry room with washer and dryer included. Large main bath with walk in closet, dual sinks and spacious bedroom adjoining; hall bath and two other bedrooms, one is set up as an office with a double door from living area and a door to hallway. Separate storage building under awning, with room for more than one car, depending on where you postition the storage building. Central heat and AC, all the amenities, gas range, side by side refrigerator and lots of pantry storage. You won't believe the amenities here. Community pool, club house, playground, dog park, game court, RV storage, and much more.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 17 unhealthy d/yr today · 18 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,389
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$4,485
• − Insurance: −$2,292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,391
• − Management: −$3,391
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable income: $3,382
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$812
• After-tax cash flow: $7,082/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brentwood Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0605910
• Math proficiency: 51% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $91,644
• Composite: 52.7/100
• National rank: #3320
• State rank: #268 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Antioch

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #782
• US rank: #22472

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 116,477
• Population (ZIP): 12,164

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 13% Asian 11% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Philippines
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -693.84%
• Current HPI: 144.7139
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+22.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $299,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2022-08-11 Sold (MLS) $245,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2022-07-11 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2022-06-25 Listed $245,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

-2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $577 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.