216 Landing Ln · Baiting Hollow, NY 11933

$1,100,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,662 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2001 1.11 ac lot Est $1254k · 12% under $63/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Located within Baiting Hollow Estates on Long Island's North Fork, this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 3-bath Colonial offers the perfect blend of comfort, privacy, and coastal living. Set on 1.11 private acres with a wooded backyard, this inviting home features a spacious layout designed for both everyday living and entertaining. A grand foyer welcomes you into the home, where you'll find a formal dining room, a first-floor office or potential fourth bedroom, and a spacious family room with a gas fireplace. The updated eat-in kitchen is the heart of the home, showcasing stainless steel appliances, a large center island, updated cabinetry, backsplash, and skylights that fill the space wi

Key facts

• Private acres
• Wooded backyard
• Formal dining room

Tags

• PRIVATE ACRES
• WOODED BACKYARD
• GRAND FOYER
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• FIRST-FLOOR OFFICE
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Baiting Hollow Estates association; Association fee $750 annually (includes other services); Additional annual HOA fee $750

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Oversized garage; Approximately 2.5 garage spaces
• Security: Security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Electricity connected (PSEG); Propane; Public trash collection; Water connected; Cesspool sewer
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Gazebo; Sprinklers in front and rear; Wooded lot; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 8; Partial attic with pull-down stairs; Basement: full, unfinished with walk-out access
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating; Oil heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Central vacuum; Eat-in kitchen; Formal dining room; Tray ceilings; Walk-in closets; Deck, porch and wrap-around porch
• Laundry & utility: Separate laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.10M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-725 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $972k (11.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $896k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $896k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#953 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Riley Avenue School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 461 students, 34% FRL); Riverhead Middle School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #594 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Riverhead Senior High School (math 80% / reading 86%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 2,001 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($8k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$70k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $1.10M implies a 1000% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $896,223 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.82%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,253,802
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30 Bluffs Dr	0.06mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,464 (-7%)	15mo	$1,160,000	$471	68
103 Silver Beech Ln	0.49mi	3/3.5	2,775 (+4%)	4mo	$1,360,000	$490	63
3 Silver Beech Ln	0.47mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,600 (-2%)	19mo	$975,000	$375	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $101,781
• Equity at exit: $510,765

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $408,947
• Equity at exit: $799,949

Cash invested: $308,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11933

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,962 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,769
• Tax from tax record: −$1,515 /mo · $18,184/yr
• Insurance: −$458
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,882
• Net cashflow: $-725

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,880

Max offer price $971,919

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-102	-5% $-414	+0% $-725	+5% $-1,036	+10% $-1,348
Rent	-10% $-1,433	-5% $-1,079	+0% $-725	+5% $-371	+10% $-17
Rate	-1.0pp $-171	-0.5pp $-445	base $-725	+0.5pp $-1,010	+1.0pp $-1,300

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $275,000
• Closing costs: $33,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1871 Edwards Ave Calverton, NY	4.0	2.5	2378	$8,000	$3.36	9d	1	0.46mi
52 Summit Dr Calverton, NY	3.0	2.0	2256	$10,000	$4.43	45d	1	0.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,100,000 Coming Soon 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,100,000 Coming Soon 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,100,000 Coming Soon 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,100,000 Coming Soon 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,100,000 Coming Soon 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $1,100,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $18,184 · $1,515/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $18,387 · $1,532/mo
• Expected delta: +$203/yr (+$17/mo · 1.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $107,547
• − Mortgage interest: −$61,617
• − Property taxes: −$18,184
• − Insurance: −$5,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$8,604
• − Management: −$8,604
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$32,000
• Taxable loss: −$27,718
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,652
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,048/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Baiting Hollow

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #953
• US rank: #18639

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baiting Hollow, NY
• Population (ZIP): 6,784

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 8% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.26%
• Current HPI: 397.7148
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1000.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Coming Soon $1,100,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-01-11 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $18,184 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.