9 St Johns Ct · Ludowici, GA 31316

$289,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,690 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 0.27 ac lot $171/sqft · 11% above area Est $261k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• ARV discount +2.6/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Hazel plan in Paxton Hill! Conveniently situated between Hinesville & Jesup, close to local schools & just minutes from Ft. Stewart. The Hazel plan features a split layout with open-concept living space just off the foyer entry. The open kitchen features granite counters & a clear view from the island out to the family room & dining area! Step outside onto the patio from the dining area! A laundry room can be found off the family room with access out to the 2-car garage. Also off the family room is the master suite with a vaulted ceiling & private bath! The master bath features a soaking tub, separate shower, dual vanity with granite counter & walk-in closet! Just off the kitchen in the Hazel plan are another 3 bedrooms & hall bath with granite vanity. Estimated completion December 2023.

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2023

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $289k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-201 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (12.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (22.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#74 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Long County (rural): math 26% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #115 of 174 in GA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Smiley Elementary School (1,258 students, 67% FRL); Long County Middle School (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #311 of 470 statewide, top 68%, 945 students, 69% FRL); Long County High School (math 37% / reading 22%, grade F, #140 of 424 statewide, top 35%, 1,209 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: 412 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 298 units permitted in Long County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Long County population projected at +72% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($285k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 12465% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $222,714 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.98%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $260,862
• List price: $289,000
• Delta: 10.79%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
85 Franklin Tree Drive Dr NE	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,682 (-0%)	18mo	$270,400	$161	70
389 Mcclelland Loop NE	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,451 (-14%)	1mo	$279,900	$193	63
129 Morgan Field Blvd NE	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,658 (-2%)	0mo	$277,000	$167	62
15 Mcclelland Loop NE	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,581 (-6%)	18mo	$264,000	$167	58
17 Fuller Way NE	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,541 (-9%)	18mo	$280,000	$182	56
110 Avondale Dr NE	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,658 (-2%)	9mo	$275,000	$166	56
188 Morgan Field Blvd NE	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,521 (-10%)	8mo	$275,000	$181	48
168 Morgan Field Blvd NE	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,565 (-7%)	8mo	$275,000	$176	48
247 NE Morgan Field Blvd	0.62mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,810 (+7%)	12mo	$278,000	$154	43
78 Avondale Dr NE	0.65mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,852 (+10%)	8mo	$282,000	$152	40
60 Lanier Rd NE	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,465 (-13%)	12mo	$230,000	$157	30
359 Morgan Field Blvd	0.72mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,890 (+12%)	14mo	$285,200	$151	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-5,124
• Equity at exit: $101,051

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $36,173
• Equity at exit: $136,156

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31316

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 412
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,227 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax from tax record: −$324 /mo · $3,891/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $-201

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,481

Max offer price $253,534

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-37	-5% $-119	+0% $-201	+5% $-283	+10% $-364
Rent	-10% $-377	-5% $-289	+0% $-201	+5% $-113	+10% $-25
Rate	-1.0pp $-55	-0.5pp $-127	base $-201	+0.5pp $-276	+1.0pp $-352

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15 Clark St Ludowici, GA	3.0	2.0	1497	$1,995	$1.33	45d	1	0.79mi
59 Forest St NE Ludowici, GA	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,900	$1.06	45d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-05
   days on market $289,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $289,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $289,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $289,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $289,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $289,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-05-13
   listed $289,000 Active 607-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,891 · $324/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,891 · $324/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,726
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$3,891
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,138
• − Management: −$2,138
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable loss: −$7,482
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,796
• After-tax cash flow: $-613/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in ready home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a great value for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Interior paint — Fresh paint can make the home feel new and attractive

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Interior paint — Fresh paint can make the home feel new and attractive ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Long County
• NCES district ID: 1303360
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $45,958
• Composite: 22.51/100
• National rank: #8090
• State rank: #115 of 174 in GA

Livability — Ludowici

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #74
• US rank: #6449

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ludowici, GA
• County: Long County · 13,812 people
• City population: 13,812
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 13,812
• Household income: $74,766
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 109.0

Population outlook (Long County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,669 people
• By 2030: 28,223 · +14.4%
• By 2040: 35,430 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 42,403 · +71.9%
• By 2075: 56,996 · +131.0%
• By 2100: 64,185 · +160.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Long

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 35.1% · R 64.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+30.8 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Current HPI: 195.2978
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-99.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed for Rent $2,300 HABR
• 2024-04-04 Sold (MLS) $269,700 Hive MLS
• 2023-10-17 Listed $269,700 Hive MLS