8619 Aster Rd · Gilmer, TX 75644

$129,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Manufactured public records · 58 Days on market

Built 2009 Fair condition 6.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fixer-upper investment opportunity! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath single-wide offers great potential as a rental or starter home. Features a new aerobic system. With underpinning installation and a few minor cosmetic updates, it will be move-in ready.

Key facts

• New aerobic system
• 6 acre lot
• Built 2009

Tags

• NEW AEROBIC SYSTEM
• UNDERPINNING INSTALLATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $327 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $125k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 2.9% in Gilmer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,257 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Gilmer ISD (town): math 44% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #372 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 207 active listings in the ZIP; 34 units permitted in Upshur County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($892 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Upshur County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 34% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,130 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.86%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.52×
• Total profit: $91,033
• Equity at exit: $116,213

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.97×
• Total profit: $251,603
• Equity at exit: $250,619

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75644

• Home prices YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 207
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,398 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $565/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $327

Break-even live

Break-even rent $984

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 39 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,000 Active 38 DOM
18. 2026-04-22
    listed $129,000 Active 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Fixer-upper investment opportunity! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath single-wide offers great potential as a rental or starter home. Features a new aerobic system. With underpinning installation and a few minor cosmetic updates, it will be move-in ready.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $565 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,361 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,796/yr (+$150/mo · 317.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 34% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,774
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$565
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,342
• − Management: −$1,342
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $1,902
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$456
• After-tax cash flow: $3,467/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath single-wide mobile home requires moderate repairs and maintenance to become move-in ready. Overgrown vegetation and a dirt road need attention, while painting and updating appliances will significantly enhance its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Overgrown vegetation — Needs trimming and clearing
• Major Dirt road — Needs grading and stabilization

Value-add opportunities

• Both Trimming vegetation and grading dirt road — Enhances curb appeal and accessibility
• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Improves appearance and value
• Both Upgrading appliances — Enhances functionality and appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Overgrown vegetation · Needs trimming and clearing	Major	$15,000–50,000
Dirt road · Needs grading and stabilization	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Trimming vegetation and grading dirt road — Enhances curb appeal and accessibility ↑
• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Improves appearance and value ↑
• Both Upgrading appliances — Enhances functionality and appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilmer ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820700
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,724
• Composite: 35.04/100
• National rank: #5038
• State rank: #372 of 826 in TX

Livability — Gilmer

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1257
• US rank: #21903

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,785

Population outlook (Upshur County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,771 people
• By 2030: 43,788 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 45,574 · +6.6%
• By 2050: 46,683 · +9.1%
• By 2075: 49,137 · +14.9%
• By 2100: 47,457 · +11.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Upshur

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.0) · D 14.2% · R 85.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: -49.0pp · 2024: -71.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.0 2020: R+68.5 2016: R+68.0 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+49.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.46%
• Current HPI: 300.86
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $129,000 LAAR