25418 Glacier Lake Dr · Cleveland, TX 77328

$249,990

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,583 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 2021 Fair condition 7,558 sqft lot $97/sqft · 17% below area Est $302k · 17% under $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SELLER NEEDS TO SELL- Welcome to 25148 Glacier Lake Drive — where space, location, natural light, and value come together beautifully. This stunning 5-bedroom, 2.5-bath home sits on an oversized lot, offering the perfect blend of indoor comfort and outdoor potential. From the moment you walk in, you’re greeted with an abundance of natural light that fills the home, creating a bright, open, and inviting atmosphere throughout. With generous living spaces and a highly functional layout, this home is ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or even a home office setup, while the large lot offers endless possibilities — whether you envision a pool, outdoor kitchen, or simply room to relax and unwind. All of this at an incredible value, making it one of the best opportunities in the area.

Key facts

• Oversized lot
• Spacious bedrooms
• 7,558 sq ft lot

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• GENEROUS LIVING SPACES
• HIGHLY FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-394 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (24.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (6.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 336 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,884 (24.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.75%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $302,378
• List price: $249,990
• Delta: -17.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
—	0.11mi	5/2.5	2,897 (+12%)	15mo	$675,000	$233	62
10955 Woods Ln	0.31mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,522 (-2%)	22mo	$389,000	$154	59
10355 Red Cardinal Dr	0.50mi	5/3.5	2,824 (+9%)	3mo	$319,900	$113	55
10370 Red Cardinal Dr	0.52mi	5/3.5	2,824 (+9%)	3mo	$325,900	$115	54
11005 Crossno Dr	0.67mi	5/2.0	2,280 (-12%)	15mo	$325,000	$143	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-65,250
• Equity at exit: $37,274

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-87,713
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $69,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77328

• Home prices YoY: -7.7%
• Active inventory: 336
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,331 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$787 /mo · $9,444/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $-394

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,829

Max offer price $188,884

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-252	-5% $-323	+0% $-394	+5% $-465	+10% $-535
Rent	-10% $-578	-5% $-486	+0% $-394	+5% $-302	+10% $-210
Rate	-1.0pp $-268	-0.5pp $-330	base $-394	+0.5pp $-459	+1.0pp $-525

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,498
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25507 Greenwood Canyon Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1950	$2,765	$1.42	2d	1	0.09mi
10659 Lost Maples Dr Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.5	2171	$1,695	$0.78	22d	1	0.17mi
10487 Red Cardinal Dr Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.5	2171	$1,695	$0.78	22d	1	0.24mi
10457 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.5	2171	$1,695	$0.78	25d	1	0.24mi
10410 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.5	2171	$1,695	$0.78	24d	1	0.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 47 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,990 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,990 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,990 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,990 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,990 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,990 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,990 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,990 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,990 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,990 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,990 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,990 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,990 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,990 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-04-20
    listed $249,990 Active 882-char remark

    Show marketing remark (882 chars)

    SELLER NEEDS TO SELL- Welcome to 25148 Glacier Lake Drive — where space, location, natural light, and value come together beautifully. This stunning 5-bedroom, 2.5-bath home sits on an oversized lot, offering the perfect blend of indoor comfort and outdoor potential. From the moment you walk in, you’re greeted with an abundance of natural light that fills the home, creating a bright, open, and inviting atmosphere throughout. With generous living spaces and a highly functional layout, this home is ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or even a home office setup, while the large lot offers endless possibilities — whether you envision a pool, outdoor kitchen, or simply room to relax and unwind. All of this at an incredible value, making it one of the best opportunities in the area.

16. 2026-04-16
    historical
17. 2026-03-12
    listed $265,000 Active
18. 2026-03-05
    listed $265,000 Active
19. 2026-03-05
    historical
20. 2026-02-22
    historical
21. 2026-01-12
    listed $275,000 Active
22. 2025-11-29
    historical
23. 2025-10-04
    price $275,000
24. 2025-09-26
    listed $288,500 Active
25. 2025-09-25
    historical
26. 2025-09-23
    status Active
27. 2025-09-23
    historical
28. 2025-08-29
    price $288,500
29. 2025-08-06
    price $293,500
30. 2025-07-20
    price $299,500
31. 2025-07-03
    price $305,000
32. 2025-06-22
    listed $310,000 Active
33. 2024-10-11
    historical
34. 2024-09-16
    price $310,000
35. 2024-08-31
    listed $313,000 Active
36. 2024-08-30
    historical
37. 2024-06-28
    price $315,000
38. 2024-05-28
    listed $318,000 Active
39. 2024-05-27
    historical
40. 2024-02-19
    listed $318,000 Active
41. 2024-02-07
    historical
42. 2021-10-29
    soldstatus Sold
43. 2021-10-11
    status Pending
44. 2021-10-08
    listed $280,900 Active
45. 2021-10-05
    historical
46. 2021-10-01
    price $280,900
47. 2021-07-28
    listed $295,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,444 · $787/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,444 · $787/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,968
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,003
• − Property taxes: −$9,444
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,237
• − Management: −$2,237
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$7,272
• Taxable loss: −$8,872
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,129
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,597/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate renovations, focusing on repairs to worn carpet and paint. Fresh paint and new carpet would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Carpet — Worn and in need of replacement
• Major Paint — Slightly worn and in need of touch-up

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint touch-up — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Rental Carpet replacement — New carpet improves comfort and reduces maintenance costs

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Carpet · Worn and in need of replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Paint · Slightly worn and in need of touch-up	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint touch-up — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Rental Carpet replacement — New carpet improves comfort and reduces maintenance costs ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cleveland, TX
• County: San Jacinto County · 17,208 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,208
• Household income: $62,428
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 58.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 14% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 31% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.82%
• Current HPI: 273.6604
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.5% since first listed

33 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $249,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-12 Listed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-04 Price Changed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-26 Listed $288,500 HARMLS
• 2025-09-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-23 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-09-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $288,500 HARMLS
• 2025-08-06 Price Changed $293,500 HARMLS
• 2025-07-20 Price Changed $299,500 HARMLS
• 2025-07-03 Price Changed $305,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-22 Listed $310,000 HARMLS
• 2024-10-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-09-16 Price Changed $310,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-31 Listed $313,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-06-28 Price Changed $315,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-28 Listed $318,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-02-19 Listed $318,000 HARMLS
• 2024-02-07 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2021-10-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-10-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-10-08 Listed $280,900 HARMLS
• 2021-10-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-10-01 Price Changed $280,900 HARMLS
• 2021-07-28 Listed $295,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+95.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,444 · -13.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.