19719 Sweet Forest Ln · Atascocita, TX 77346

$249,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,260 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1978 9,748 sqft lot $110/sqft · 20% below area Est $310k · 20% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 4 bed, 2.5 bath home is well-maintained property features an island kitchen with cook top and granite countertops, double ovens, and great space for entertaining. Enjoy a cozy fireplace in the living room, formal dining room, a bright breakfast area. All bedrooms are upstairs, including a spacious primary suite with a walk-in closet and double sinks. Open floor plan with half bath also located in the first floor. The kitchen is open to the living room great for entertaining. Tile flooring throughout the first floor. The upstairs offers the primary bedroom and a flex space that can be used as a office/Study space ect. along with three additional bedrooms and a full bathroom. AC and furnace is 2ys old Backyard oasis sizable for entertaining & hosting family/friends & spacious enough to create your own outdoor paradise. Buyers please measure home for exact measurements. The home is priced to sell and being sold as is. Schedule your private tour today!

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Island kitchen
• Double ovens

Tags

• ISLAND KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• DOUBLE OVENS
• COZY FIREPLACE
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• BRIGHT BREAKFAST AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $338 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $249k).
• Recommended offer: $242k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.1% in Atascocita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 669 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $249k implies a 125% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $241,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.82%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $310,310
• List price: $249,000
• Delta: -19.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7811 17th Green Dr	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,415 (+7%)	0mo	$250,000	$104	83
7526 17th Green Dr	0.26mi	4/2.5	2,362 (+4%)	2mo	$324,900	$138	79
19919 Sweetgum Forest Dr	0.18mi	4/2.5	2,061 (-9%)	3mo	$266,500	$129	75
7503 17th Green Dr	0.32mi	4/2.5	2,484 (+10%)	1mo	$345,000	$139	68
19811 Bent Pine Dr	0.54mi	4/2.5	2,381 (+5%)	2mo	$314,000	$132	64
20256 Ivy Point Cir	0.52mi	4/2.5	2,076 (-8%)	2mo	$345,500	$166	60
19830 Atascocita Pines Dr	0.35mi	4/2.5	2,585 (+14%)	0mo	$369,000	$143	60
20335 Atascocita Shores Dr	0.74mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,324 (+3%)	1mo	$364,000	$157	55
20015 Bunker Bend Ct	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,452 (+8%)	3mo	$299,900	$122	49
19918 Emerald Bend Way	0.71mi	4/2.5	1,989 (-12%)	0mo	$307,740	$155	46
7410 Crown Maples Dr	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,011 (-11%)	2mo	$377,650	$188	41
7346 Crown Maples Dr	0.74mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,011 (-11%)	4mo	$365,020	$182	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-4,626
• Equity at exit: $60,654

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $13,834
• Equity at exit: $64,159

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 669
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,845 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$450 /mo · $5,396/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$597
• Net cashflow: $338

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,417

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19603 Fairway Island Dr Humble, TX	5.0	2.5	3329	$6,500	$1.95	24d	1	0.34mi
20502 Spoonwood Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	2302	$1,975	$0.86	43d	1	0.74mi
18718 Walden Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2224	$2,600	$1.17	2d	1	0.83mi
19706 Water Point Trl Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2753	$2,550	$0.93	24d	1	0.88mi
19119 Sprintwood Ct Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2487	$2,425	$0.98	22d	1	0.92mi
7403 Misty Morning Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1628	$1,900	$1.17	17d	1	0.92mi
20618 Carmine Oak Ct Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	2087	$2,195	$1.05	43d	1	0.98mi
6519 Kings Glen Dr Humble, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1255	$2,813	$2.24	1d	16	1.04mi
7131 Maple Walk Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1808	$1,895	$1.05	5d	1	1.08mi
6731 Auburn Oak Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	2433	$2,345	$0.96	22d	1	1.10mi
20707 Redbud Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1965	$2,450	$1.25	22d	1	1.15mi
7515 Echo Pines Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1655	$1,850	$1.12	43d	1	1.22mi
20823 Water Point Trl Humble, TX	4.0	3.5	2550	$2,525	$0.99	22d	1	1.28mi
20906 Greenfield Trl Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2603	$2,200	$0.85	43d	1	1.38mi
20914 Lake Park Trl Humble, TX	5.0	2.5	2462	$2,460	$1.00	5d	1	1.43mi
7002 Echo Pines Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1738	$1,869	$1.08	15d	1	1.46mi
18810 Summer Anne Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	3000	$2,376	$0.79	43d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $249,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,000 Pending 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Pending 42 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Pending 41 DOM
13. 2026-04-20
    listed $249,000 Active 980-char remark

    Show marketing remark (980 chars)

    Charming 4 bed, 2.5 bath home is well-maintained property features an island kitchen with cook top and granite countertops, double ovens, and great space for entertaining. Enjoy a cozy fireplace in the living room, formal dining room, a bright breakfast area. All bedrooms are upstairs, including a spacious primary suite with a walk-in closet and double sinks. Open floor plan with half bath also located in the first floor. The kitchen is open to the living room great for entertaining. Tile flooring throughout the first floor. The upstairs offers the primary bedroom and a flex space that can be used as a office/Study space ect. along with three additional bedrooms and a full bathroom. AC and furnace is 2ys old Backyard oasis sizable for entertaining & hosting family/friends & spacious enough to create your own outdoor paradise. Buyers please measure home for exact measurements. The home is priced to sell and being sold as is. Schedule your private tour today!

14. 2025-08-26
    soldstatus
15. 2025-08-22
    soldstatus Closed 726-char remark

    Show marketing remark (726 chars)

    Charming 4 bed, 2.5 bath home in Pinehurst of Atascocita! This well-maintained property features an island kitchen with granite countertops, double ovens, and great space for entertaining. Enjoy a cozy fireplace in the living room, formal dining room, and a bright breakfast area. All bedrooms are upstairs, including a spacious primary suite with a walk-in closet and double sinks. Step outside to a beautiful backyard, perfect for gatherings. Detached 2-car garage included. Home does need a little TLC, offering a great opportunity to add your personal touch. Located minutes from FM 1960, Lake Houston, and IAH. Zoned to Humble ISD and includes access to community pool, tennis courts, and parks. Schedule your tour today!

16. 2025-07-24
    status Pending 726-char remark

    Show marketing remark (726 chars)

    Charming 4 bed, 2.5 bath home in Pinehurst of Atascocita! This well-maintained property features an island kitchen with granite countertops, double ovens, and great space for entertaining. Enjoy a cozy fireplace in the living room, formal dining room, and a bright breakfast area. All bedrooms are upstairs, including a spacious primary suite with a walk-in closet and double sinks. Step outside to a beautiful backyard, perfect for gatherings. Detached 2-car garage included. Home does need a little TLC, offering a great opportunity to add your personal touch. Located minutes from FM 1960, Lake Houston, and IAH. Zoned to Humble ISD and includes access to community pool, tennis courts, and parks. Schedule your tour today!

17. 2025-07-01
    price $239,000 726-char remark

    Show marketing remark (726 chars)

    Charming 4 bed, 2.5 bath home in Pinehurst of Atascocita! This well-maintained property features an island kitchen with granite countertops, double ovens, and great space for entertaining. Enjoy a cozy fireplace in the living room, formal dining room, and a bright breakfast area. All bedrooms are upstairs, including a spacious primary suite with a walk-in closet and double sinks. Step outside to a beautiful backyard, perfect for gatherings. Detached 2-car garage included. Home does need a little TLC, offering a great opportunity to add your personal touch. Located minutes from FM 1960, Lake Houston, and IAH. Zoned to Humble ISD and includes access to community pool, tennis courts, and parks. Schedule your tour today!

18. 2025-06-09
    status Active 726-char remark

    Show marketing remark (726 chars)

    Charming 4 bed, 2.5 bath home in Pinehurst of Atascocita! This well-maintained property features an island kitchen with granite countertops, double ovens, and great space for entertaining. Enjoy a cozy fireplace in the living room, formal dining room, and a bright breakfast area. All bedrooms are upstairs, including a spacious primary suite with a walk-in closet and double sinks. Step outside to a beautiful backyard, perfect for gatherings. Detached 2-car garage included. Home does need a little TLC, offering a great opportunity to add your personal touch. Located minutes from FM 1960, Lake Houston, and IAH. Zoned to Humble ISD and includes access to community pool, tennis courts, and parks. Schedule your tour today!

19. 2025-06-06
    status Option Pending 726-char remark

    Show marketing remark (726 chars)

    Charming 4 bed, 2.5 bath home in Pinehurst of Atascocita! This well-maintained property features an island kitchen with granite countertops, double ovens, and great space for entertaining. Enjoy a cozy fireplace in the living room, formal dining room, and a bright breakfast area. All bedrooms are upstairs, including a spacious primary suite with a walk-in closet and double sinks. Step outside to a beautiful backyard, perfect for gatherings. Detached 2-car garage included. Home does need a little TLC, offering a great opportunity to add your personal touch. Located minutes from FM 1960, Lake Houston, and IAH. Zoned to Humble ISD and includes access to community pool, tennis courts, and parks. Schedule your tour today!

20. 2025-05-24
    listed $260,000 Active 726-char remark

    Show marketing remark (726 chars)

    Charming 4 bed, 2.5 bath home in Pinehurst of Atascocita! This well-maintained property features an island kitchen with granite countertops, double ovens, and great space for entertaining. Enjoy a cozy fireplace in the living room, formal dining room, and a bright breakfast area. All bedrooms are upstairs, including a spacious primary suite with a walk-in closet and double sinks. Step outside to a beautiful backyard, perfect for gatherings. Detached 2-car garage included. Home does need a little TLC, offering a great opportunity to add your personal touch. Located minutes from FM 1960, Lake Houston, and IAH. Zoned to Humble ISD and includes access to community pool, tennis courts, and parks. Schedule your tour today!

21. 2021-12-01
    soldstatus
22. 2020-09-02
    soldstatus
23. 2020-09-01
    soldstatus Sold
24. 2020-08-04
    status Pending
25. 2020-07-23
    status Option Pending
26. 2020-07-13
    listed $214,900 Active
27. 2018-04-02
    soldstatus
28. 2018-03-28
    soldstatus Sold
29. 2018-03-11
    status Pending
30. 2018-03-04
    status Option Pending
31. 2018-02-28
    listed $180,000 Active
32. 2013-04-18
    soldstatus
33. 2013-04-10
    soldstatus Sold
34. 2013-04-08
    status Pending
35. 2013-03-26
    status Pending, Continue to Show
36. 2013-03-22
    status Option Pending
37. 2013-02-05
    listed $133,900 Active
38. 2009-08-04
    soldstatus
39. 2009-07-30
    soldstatus
40. 2009-07-12
    historical
41. 2009-05-21
    listed $134,900
42. 1993-05-28
    soldstatus $110,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,396 · $450/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,396 · $450/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,138
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$5,396
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,731
• − Management: −$2,731
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable income: $244
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$58
• After-tax cash flow: $4,000/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+125.3% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $249,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-08-22 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-07-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-07-01 Price Changed $239,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-09 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-06-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-05-24 Listed $260,000 HARMLS
• 2021-12-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-09-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-09-01 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-08-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-07-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-07-13 Listed $214,900 HARMLS
• 2018-04-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-03-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-03-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-03-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-02-28 Listed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2013-04-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-04-10 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2013-04-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-03-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-03-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-02-05 Listed $133,900 HARMLS
• 2009-08-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-07-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2009-07-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-05-21 Listed $134,900 HARMLS
• 1993-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $110,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,396 · -5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.