3114 Mission Valley Dr · Missouri City, TX 77459

$190,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,745 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1976 7,993 sqft lot Est $279k · 32% under $16/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

An incredible opportunity for investors! As-is where is. This property has had only one owner since 1976 and offers the opportunity to modernize a single-story rancher with a spacious back yard! The property has 4 bedrooms, a formal living room, a family room, breakfast area, kitchen, two bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. Situated in Thunderbird North of Missouri City, just 10 minutes to ALT 90. Great for anyone commuting to the Texas Medical Center, Stafford, or Sugar Land. The community offers a pool, tennis courts, and playground, and there's a lovely city park at the entrance to Quail Valley. Schedule your tour today!

Key facts

• Community pool
• City park
• Tennis courts

Tags

• SPACIOUS BACK YARD
• SINGLE-STORY RANCHER
• COMMUNITY POOL
• TENNIS COURTS
• PLAYGROUND
• CITY PARK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association-maintained pool available
• HOA & community: Thunderbird North Community Assoc; Annual association fee ($186) covering recreation facilities; Association amenities: pool, playground, tennis courts

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces); Driveway parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Built in 1976; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Community pool access; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms (all on the first level; two listed as Primary Bedrooms)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: One fireplace; Tub with shower

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $231 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.5% in Missouri City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#526 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lantern Lane El (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 472 students, 77% FRL); Quail Valley Middle (math 55% / reading 57%, grade B-, #234 of 1,662 statewide, top 14%, 1,043 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 35% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1215 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.21%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $279,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3290 Hunters Glen Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,676 (-4%)	1mo	$210,000	$125	84
3502 Quail Meadow Dr	0.26mi	3/2.5	1,740 (-0%)	2mo	$249,000	$143	84
1615 Turtle Creek Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,721 (-1%)	2mo	$275,000	$160	80
1731 Gray Hawk Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,740 (-0%)	3mo	$310,000	$178	76
3819 Glen Cove Cir	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,750 (+0%)	2mo	$228,000	$130	75
3710 Quail Meadow Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,676 (-4%)	3mo	$250,000	$149	73
2230 Quail Valley East Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,838 (+5%)	2mo	$224,900	$122	71
2126 Quail Valley East Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-12%)	1mo	$249,900	$163	66
3107 Southern Hills Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,531 (-12%)	0mo	$265,000	$173	60
2239 Fall Meadow Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,528 (-12%)	0mo	$224,900	$147	59
1519 Wells Manor Ln	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,881 (+8%)	1mo	$327,000	$174	54
2254 Stillmeadow Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,528 (-12%)	3mo	$265,000	$173	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-11,433
• Equity at exit: $39,848

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-5,036
• Equity at exit: $36,909

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1215
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,150 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$376 /mo · $4,516/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$16
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $231

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,858

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3618 Quail Meadow Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1618	$1,966	$1.22	44d	1	0.32mi
1919 Doliver Cir Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,000	$1.32	44d	1	0.65mi
17318 Edgehaven Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,695	$1.17	21d	1	0.73mi
3912 Cedar Valley Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	2151	$2,200	$1.02	21d	1	1.25mi
1055 Memorial Bend Blvd Missouri City, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	994	$2,514	$2.53	1d	121	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $16 · $192/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $190,000 Pending 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $190,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   remarks 627-char remark
5. 2026-06-07
   listed $190,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,516 · $376/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,516 · $376/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,803
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$4,516
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,064
• − Management: −$2,064
• − HOA: −$192
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$154
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$37
• After-tax cash flow: $2,807/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Missouri City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #526
• US rank: #10308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Missouri City, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 123,513
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $190,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,516 · -4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.