469 Broad St · Tonawanda, NY 14150

$179,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,094 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1907 4,356 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Why rent when you could own at a price like this? Sweet 2 bedroom Tonawanda ranch with newer roof, windows, and furnace. Hardwood floors throughout, full basement, privacy fencing, and great layout! This home will not last long, make your appointment today. Open house Sunday 9/8 1pm-3pm. Offers will be reviewed Monday 9/9 at 5pm.

Key facts

• Natural woodwork
• Updated kitchen
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• NATURAL WOODWORK
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• SOLID SURFACE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($679/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (12.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $157k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#8 in NY, #169 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+.
• Tonawanda City School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #508 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Riverview Elementary School (math 24% / reading 54%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 366 students, 50% FRL); Fletcher Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%); Tonawanda Middle/High School (math 49% / reading 43%, grade D-, #1,023 of 1,100 statewide, top 93%, 1,011 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 193 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $76k; list at $180k implies a 135% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1907 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $157,381 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1907 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.35%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-19,396
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $15,024
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14150

• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 193
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,574 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$168 /mo · $2,020/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,502

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $158	-5% $108	+0% $57	+5% $6	+10% $-45
Rent	-10% $-68	-5% $-6	+0% $57	+5% $119	+10% $181
Rate	-1.0pp $147	-0.5pp $102	base $57	+0.5pp $10	+1.0pp $-37

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
115 Klinger Ave Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	5d	1	0.35mi
184 Sweeney St North Tonawanda, NY	2.0	2.0	1155	$2,000	$1.73	3d	1	1.11mi
53 Winkler Dr Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1060	$2,100	$1.98	13d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-03-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-17
   listed $179,900 Active
3. 2019-11-12
   soldstatus $76,500 Closed Sale or Rented 331-char remark

   Show marketing remark (331 chars)

   Why rent when you could own at a price like this? Sweet 2 bedroom Tonawanda ranch with newer roof, windows, and furnace. Hardwood floors throughout, full basement, privacy fencing, and great layout! This home will not last long, make your appointment today. Open house Sunday 9/8 1pm-3pm. Offers will be reviewed Monday 9/9 at 5pm.

4. 2019-11-12
   soldstatus $76,500

   Show marketing remark (331 chars)

   Why rent when you could own at a price like this? Sweet 2 bedroom Tonawanda ranch with newer roof, windows, and furnace. Hardwood floors throughout, full basement, privacy fencing, and great layout! This home will not last long, make your appointment today. Open house Sunday 9/8 1pm-3pm. Offers will be reviewed Monday 9/9 at 5pm.

5. 2019-09-11
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 331-char remark

   Show marketing remark (331 chars)

   Why rent when you could own at a price like this? Sweet 2 bedroom Tonawanda ranch with newer roof, windows, and furnace. Hardwood floors throughout, full basement, privacy fencing, and great layout! This home will not last long, make your appointment today. Open house Sunday 9/8 1pm-3pm. Offers will be reviewed Monday 9/9 at 5pm.

6. 2019-09-04
   listed $79,995 Active 331-char remark

   Show marketing remark (331 chars)

   Why rent when you could own at a price like this? Sweet 2 bedroom Tonawanda ranch with newer roof, windows, and furnace. Hardwood floors throughout, full basement, privacy fencing, and great layout! This home will not last long, make your appointment today. Open house Sunday 9/8 1pm-3pm. Offers will be reviewed Monday 9/9 at 5pm.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,020 · $168/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,530 · $211/mo
• Expected delta: +$510/yr (+$43/mo · 25.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,886
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$2,020
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,511
• − Management: −$1,511
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$2,366
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$568
• After-tax cash flow: $1,247/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tonawanda City School District
• NCES district ID: 3628740
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,061
• Composite: 35.03/100
• National rank: #5041
• State rank: #508 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #169

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 41,260
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 41,260
• Household income: $71,406
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1427.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.43%
• Current HPI: 334.5893
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.75%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+124.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $179,900 WNYREIS
• 2019-11-12 Sold (Public Records) $76,500 Public Records
• 2019-11-12 Sold (MLS) $76,500 WNYREIS
• 2019-09-11 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2019-09-04 Listed $79,995 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,020 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.