5651 Sudley Ln · Garden City, ID 83714

$169,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,876 sqft · Manufactured · 77 Days on market

Built 1977 Est $169k · at est. ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great home located in highly sought after 55 and over community. Home is clean and move in ready. Has updated vinyl windows throughout, updated HVAC, TONS of great storage, large attached custom workshop with power and custom wide swing door. Unit is 1977 Van Dyke 28x67 unit. One of the larger lots in development with nice, covered patio, lawn, shop, and more. Lot rent is $603/mo plus $57/mo for water, sewer, and trash.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 1977
• Listed 77 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Situated in an over-55 community (Shenandoah subdivision)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: City water service; Sewer connected
• Home design: Mobile/manufactured home on a rented lot; Located in an over-55 community
• Construction: Built in 1977; Rolled/hot mop roof
• Exterior features: Full fencing; Auto sprinkler system / full sprinkler system; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Oven/Range (freestanding); Microwave; Garbage disposal; Water softener (owned)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level (Master: approx. 13 x 15; Bedroom 2: approx. 10 x 10; Bedroom 3: approx. 13 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Master bathroom with bath in master bedroom and double vanity; Breakfast bar; One gas fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Utility room on main level (approx. 5 x 10); Gas water heater; Tank water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $647 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $159k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 2.5% in Garden City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#11 in ID, #1,264 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime F.
• Boise Independent District (urban): math 42% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #36 of 92 in ID (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shadow Hills Elementary (math 33% / reading 46%, grade F, #234 of 357 statewide, top 69%, 445 students, 24% FRL); Capital Senior High School (math 34% / reading 57%, grade D-, #59 of 169 statewide, top 35%, 1,220 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 445 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,129 units permitted in Ada County in 2024 (414 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ada County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.9% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $158,860 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.41%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $168,840
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5651 Sudley Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,876 (0%)	1mo	$169,000	$90	100
7928 W Rapidan Ln	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,835 (-2%)	9mo	$110,000	$60	78

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $18,268
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $87,891
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Idaho: 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+18
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; minimal tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 83714

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 445
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,298 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$211 /mo · $2,535/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $647

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,478

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6077 N Tarako Ave Boise, ID	3.0	2.5	1583	$2,172	$1.37	2d	2	0.31mi
7570 W State St Boise, ID	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1236	$2,183	$1.77	2d	21	0.36mi
7456 W Limelight Ct Boise, ID	3.0	2.0	1278	$2,095	$1.64	3d	1	0.54mi
6200 N River Pointe Ln Garden City, ID	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$3,157	$3.16	2d	8	0.71mi
7356 N Lucy Rose Ln Apt 104 Boise, ID	3.0	3.0	1300	$1,895	$1.46	3d	1	0.80mi
9557 W State St Garden City, ID	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,850	$1.49	2d	1	0.87mi
6473 W Parapet Dr Unit 1 Boise, ID	4.0	2.5	1396	$2,300	$1.65	3d	1	0.98mi
7228 W Rygate Dr Boise, ID	3.0	2.5	1395	$2,345	$1.68	23d	1	0.98mi
5967 N Pierce Park Ln Boise, ID	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,795	$1.38	23d	1	1.01mi
6120 N Hacienda Ave Boise, ID	4.0	3.5	2522	$3,745	$1.48	14d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-03-31
   price $169,000
2. 2026-03-09
   listed $179,000 Active
3. 2026-01-20
   historical
4. 2025-10-10
   listed $199,999 Active
5. 2023-05-01
   soldstatus Sold 423-char remark

   Show marketing remark (423 chars)

   Great home located in highly sought after 55 and over community. Home is clean and move in ready. Has updated vinyl windows throughout, updated HVAC, TONS of great storage, large attached custom workshop with power and custom wide swing door. Unit is 1977 Van Dyke 28x67 unit. One of the larger lots in development with nice, covered patio, lawn, shop, and more. Lot rent is $603/mo plus $57/mo for water, sewer, and trash.

6. 2023-03-31
   status Pending 423-char remark

   Show marketing remark (423 chars)

   Great home located in highly sought after 55 and over community. Home is clean and move in ready. Has updated vinyl windows throughout, updated HVAC, TONS of great storage, large attached custom workshop with power and custom wide swing door. Unit is 1977 Van Dyke 28x67 unit. One of the larger lots in development with nice, covered patio, lawn, shop, and more. Lot rent is $603/mo plus $57/mo for water, sewer, and trash.

7. 2022-12-20
   status Active 423-char remark

   Show marketing remark (423 chars)

   Great home located in highly sought after 55 and over community. Home is clean and move in ready. Has updated vinyl windows throughout, updated HVAC, TONS of great storage, large attached custom workshop with power and custom wide swing door. Unit is 1977 Van Dyke 28x67 unit. One of the larger lots in development with nice, covered patio, lawn, shop, and more. Lot rent is $603/mo plus $57/mo for water, sewer, and trash.

8. 2022-12-07
   status Pending 423-char remark

   Show marketing remark (423 chars)

   Great home located in highly sought after 55 and over community. Home is clean and move in ready. Has updated vinyl windows throughout, updated HVAC, TONS of great storage, large attached custom workshop with power and custom wide swing door. Unit is 1977 Van Dyke 28x67 unit. One of the larger lots in development with nice, covered patio, lawn, shop, and more. Lot rent is $603/mo plus $57/mo for water, sewer, and trash.

9. 2022-11-18
   price $147,500 423-char remark

   Show marketing remark (423 chars)

   Great home located in highly sought after 55 and over community. Home is clean and move in ready. Has updated vinyl windows throughout, updated HVAC, TONS of great storage, large attached custom workshop with power and custom wide swing door. Unit is 1977 Van Dyke 28x67 unit. One of the larger lots in development with nice, covered patio, lawn, shop, and more. Lot rent is $603/mo plus $57/mo for water, sewer, and trash.

10. 2022-10-31
    listed $175,000 Active 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    Great home located in highly sought after 55 and over community. Home is clean and move in ready. Has updated vinyl windows throughout, updated HVAC, TONS of great storage, large attached custom workshop with power and custom wide swing door. Unit is 1977 Van Dyke 28x67 unit. One of the larger lots in development with nice, covered patio, lawn, shop, and more. Lot rent is $603/mo plus $57/mo for water, sewer, and trash.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,570
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$2,535
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,206
• − Management: −$2,206
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $5,396
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,295
• After-tax cash flow: $6,470/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Boise Independent District
• NCES district ID: 1600360
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,135
• Composite: 41.82/100
• National rank: #3388
• State rank: #36 of 92 in ID

Livability — Garden City

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #11
• US rank: #1264

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime F Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Garden City, ID
• County: Ada County · 522,161 people
• Metro: Boise City, ID
• Population (ZIP): 27,564
• Household income: $87,651
• Rent vs Own: 27.4% rent · 72.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 557.0

Population outlook (Ada County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 535,818 people
• By 2030: 585,751 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 682,435 · +27.4%
• By 2050: 775,818 · +44.8%
• By 2075: 994,458 · +85.6%
• By 2100: 1,148,884 · +114.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 4% Portuguese 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ada

• 2024 margin: R (+10.3) · D 43.4% · R 53.8% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.2pp · 2024: -10.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.3 2020: R+3.9 2016: R+9.2 2012: R+11.3 2008: R+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.87%
• Current HPI: 339.0701
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.87%
• Metro: Boise City, ID
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ID)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$79B
▸Technology	1	$25B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$6B

Price history

-3.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $169,000 IMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $179,000 IMLS
• 2026-01-20 Listing Removed — IMLS
• 2025-10-10 Listed $199,999 IMLS
• 2023-05-01 Sold (MLS) — IMLS
• 2023-03-31 Pending — IMLS
• 2022-12-20 Relisted — IMLS
• 2022-12-07 Pending — IMLS
• 2022-11-18 Price Changed $147,500 IMLS
• 2022-10-31 Listed $175,000 IMLS