5111 Gray Buffalo · San Antonio, TX 78242

$205,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,900 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1978 5,619 sqft lot $108/sqft · 9% below area Est $226k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover your dream home at 5111 Gray Buffalo, perfectly situated in South San Antonio near Palo Alto College! This spacious 5-bedroom, 3-bath gem features rare double master suites, each with breathtaking floor-to-ceiling windows that fill the rooms with gorgeous natural sunlight. The open layout is designed for comfort and flexibility, while the covered back patio is perfect for entertaining or relaxing with loved ones. Families will love being part of the highly regarded Southwest ISD, with schools, parks, and community amenities just minutes away. Whether you're searching for your next family haven or a smart investment opportunity, this property offers unbeatable value and style. Don't miss out-make 5111 Gray Buffalo your new address today!

Key facts

• 5,619 sq ft lot
• Built 1978
• Listed 80 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-413 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $140k (31.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (17.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (31.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Southwest ISD (rural): math 21% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #701 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hidden Cove Steam Academy (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 521 students, 92% FRL); Sharon Christa Mcauliffe Middle (math 12% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,491 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 677 students, 92% FRL); Southwest H S (math 17% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,152 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 92 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,460 (31.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.63%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $225,715
• List price: $205,000
• Delta: -9.18%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-64,223
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -79.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.88×
• Total profit: $-107,958
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78242

• Home prices YoY: -17.6%
• Rents YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,687 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$585 /mo · $7,023/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $-413

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,210

Max offer price $140,460

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-297	-5% $-355	+0% $-413	+5% $-471	+10% $-529
Rent	-10% $-546	-5% $-479	+0% $-413	+5% $-346	+10% $-279
Rate	-1.0pp $-309	-0.5pp $-361	base $-413	+0.5pp $-466	+1.0pp $-520

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8739 Tesoro Hls San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1777	$1,595	$0.90	6d	1	0.25mi
8619 Tesoro Hls San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1539	$1,540	$1.00	26d	1	0.34mi
5331 Beryl Cv San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$2,000	$1.54	6d	1	0.35mi
8522 Tesoro Hls San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1539	$1,540	$1.00	46d	1	0.38mi
8311 Big Creek Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1777	$1,610	$0.91	46d	1	0.46mi
8905 Seacliff St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1230	$1,250	$1.02	18d	1	0.59mi
8167 Dempsey Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1777	$1,610	$0.91	46d	1	0.60mi
5542 Snow Fox St San Antonio, TX	4.0	1.5	1280	$1,900	$1.48	46d	1	0.70mi
9006 Bowline San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1547	$1,795	$1.16	6d	1	1.06mi
9130 Kings Hbr San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1885	$1,650	$0.88	26d	1	1.13mi
4111 Imogene Ivy San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,700	$1.33	5d	1	1.24mi
9122 Campbell Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1354	$1,495	$1.10	5d	1	1.28mi
5406 Elm Valley Dr San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$3,000	$1.80	0d	1	1.39mi
5538 Jade Vly San Antonio, TX	4.0	3.0	2061	$2,100	$1.02	46d	1	1.49mi
3910 Poteet Pl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1880	$1,525	$0.81	46d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $205,000 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $205,000 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $205,000 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,000 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-04-17
    status Back on Market 758-char remark

    Show marketing remark (758 chars)

    Discover your dream home at 5111 Gray Buffalo, perfectly situated in South San Antonio near Palo Alto College! This spacious 5-bedroom, 3-bath gem features rare double master suites, each with breathtaking floor-to-ceiling windows that fill the rooms with gorgeous natural sunlight. The open layout is designed for comfort and flexibility, while the covered back patio is perfect for entertaining or relaxing with loved ones. Families will love being part of the highly regarded Southwest ISD, with schools, parks, and community amenities just minutes away. Whether you're searching for your next family haven or a smart investment opportunity, this property offers unbeatable value and style. Don't miss out-make 5111 Gray Buffalo your new address today!

16. 2026-04-12
    historical Active Option 758-char remark

    Show marketing remark (758 chars)

    Discover your dream home at 5111 Gray Buffalo, perfectly situated in South San Antonio near Palo Alto College! This spacious 5-bedroom, 3-bath gem features rare double master suites, each with breathtaking floor-to-ceiling windows that fill the rooms with gorgeous natural sunlight. The open layout is designed for comfort and flexibility, while the covered back patio is perfect for entertaining or relaxing with loved ones. Families will love being part of the highly regarded Southwest ISD, with schools, parks, and community amenities just minutes away. Whether you're searching for your next family haven or a smart investment opportunity, this property offers unbeatable value and style. Don't miss out-make 5111 Gray Buffalo your new address today!

17. 2026-04-02
    listed $205,000 New 758-char remark

    Show marketing remark (758 chars)

    Discover your dream home at 5111 Gray Buffalo, perfectly situated in South San Antonio near Palo Alto College! This spacious 5-bedroom, 3-bath gem features rare double master suites, each with breathtaking floor-to-ceiling windows that fill the rooms with gorgeous natural sunlight. The open layout is designed for comfort and flexibility, while the covered back patio is perfect for entertaining or relaxing with loved ones. Families will love being part of the highly regarded Southwest ISD, with schools, parks, and community amenities just minutes away. Whether you're searching for your next family haven or a smart investment opportunity, this property offers unbeatable value and style. Don't miss out-make 5111 Gray Buffalo your new address today!

18. 2025-04-15
    historical $2,500
19. 2025-04-15
    historical
20. 2025-04-04
    historical Active Option
21. 2025-02-28
    listed $2,500
22. 2025-02-26
    price $195,000
23. 2025-01-09
    price $207,000
24. 2024-12-11
    listed $230,000 New
25. 2023-04-13
    soldstatus
26. 2021-09-22
    soldstatus
27. 2021-09-17
    soldstatus Sold
28. 2021-09-03
    price $115,000
29. 2021-09-02
    status Pending SB
30. 2021-09-02
    status Back on Market
31. 2021-08-27
    historical
32. 2021-08-24
    price $120,000
33. 2021-08-06
    listed $145,000 New
34. 2020-11-12
    soldstatus
35. 2020-11-05
    status Pending
36. 2020-10-30
    soldstatus Sold
37. 2020-10-12
    historical Active Option
38. 2020-09-30
    listed $79,900 New
39. 2000-07-31
    soldstatus
40. 1988-07-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,023 · $585/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,023 · $585/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,248
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$7,023
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,620
• − Management: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$8,487
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,037
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,916/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840950
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,362
• Composite: 22.22/100
• National rank: #8153
• State rank: #701 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,168
• Household income: $50,644
• Rent vs Own: 46.4% rent · 53.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1778.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 86% Two or more races 25% White 8% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 43% English-only · Spanish 55%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.63%
• Current HPI: 259.9788
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.32%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+156.6% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Relisted — LERA
• 2026-04-12 Contingent — LERA
• 2026-04-02 Listed $205,000 LERA
• 2025-04-15 Rental Removed $2,500 SABOR
• 2025-04-15 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-04-04 Contingent — LERA
• 2025-02-28 Listed for Rent $2,500 SABOR
• 2025-02-26 Price Changed $195,000 LERA
• 2025-01-09 Price Changed $207,000 LERA
• 2024-12-11 Listed $230,000 LERA
• 2023-04-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-09-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-09-17 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2021-09-03 Price Changed $115,000 LERA
• 2021-09-02 Pending — LERA
• 2021-09-02 Relisted — LERA
• 2021-08-27 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2021-08-24 Price Changed $120,000 LERA
• 2021-08-06 Listed $145,000 LERA
• 2020-11-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-11-05 Pending — LERA
• 2020-10-30 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2020-10-12 Contingent — LERA
• 2020-09-30 Listed $79,900 LERA
• 2000-07-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+13.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,023 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.