77 Karsten Dr Unit 26C · Wahiawa, HI 96786

$120,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 782 sqft · Condo public records · 114 Days on market

Built 1987 $651/mo HOA · 29% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very clean ground floor 2 bedroom 1 bath with 2 parking stalls and a fenced lanai. Pet friendly complex. Guest parking. To be sold "AS IS".

Key facts

• Lush green lawns
• Renovated kitchen
• New countertops

Tags

• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• NEW COUNTERTOPS
• PET FRIENDLY COMMUNITY
• ASSIGNED PARKING STALLS
• LUSH GREEN LAWNS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: 04 - R-7.5 Residential District; Frontage type: Preservation
• Financial info: Monthly lease amount: $325 (lease expires 2040-12-31); Maintenance expense: $651
• HOA & community: Association covers common areas, sewer, and water; Management provided; Community amenities include deck/porch, patio, playground, and storage facilities

Exterior

• Parking: 2 assigned parking spaces; Guest parking; On-street parking available; Open parking available
• Utilities: Water and sewer included in association fee
• Home design: Single-story; Entry on level 1; Has a view; Leasehold
• Construction: Built in 2022; Double wall construction; Wood frame
• Exterior features: Fenced with wall

Interior

• Bedrooms: Bedroom located on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Partially furnished; End unit; Bedroom on main level; Full bath on main level; Storage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $403 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#18 in HI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Hawaii Department Of Education (suburban): math 32% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #1 of 1 in HI (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.8%/yr); 37 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,638 units permitted in Honolulu County in 2024 (793 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Honolulu County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.8% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $175k (59%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.

Recommended offer $109,200 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.38%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $18,056
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.05×
• Total profit: $102,344
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 37 Tenant-Leaning
• State Hawaii: 37 Tenant-Leaning · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Honolulu has source-of-income protections; warranty of habitability strong.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96786

• Rents YoY: 7.8%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,254 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $571/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$651
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $403

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,744

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $471	-5% $437	+0% $403	+5% $369	+10% $335
Rent	-10% $225	-5% $314	+0% $403	+5% $492	+10% $581
Rate	-1.0pp $463	-0.5pp $433	base $403	+0.5pp $372	+1.0pp $340

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $651 · $7,812/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $120,000 Pending 114 DOM
2. 2026-05-04
   historical
3. 2026-04-10
   listed $295,000 Active
4. 2026-02-21
   historical Active Under Contract
5. 2026-02-05
   listed $120,000 Active
6. 2018-01-18
   soldstatus $116,000 Sold 149-char remark

   Show marketing remark (149 chars)

   Very clean ground floor 2 bedroom 1 bath with 2 parking stalls and a fenced lanai. Pet friendly complex. Guest parking. To be sold "AS IS".

7. 2018-01-18
   soldstatus $116,000

   Show marketing remark (149 chars)

   Very clean ground floor 2 bedroom 1 bath with 2 parking stalls and a fenced lanai. Pet friendly complex. Guest parking. To be sold "AS IS".

8. 2017-12-31
   status Pending 149-char remark

   Show marketing remark (149 chars)

   Very clean ground floor 2 bedroom 1 bath with 2 parking stalls and a fenced lanai. Pet friendly complex. Guest parking. To be sold "AS IS".

9. 2017-12-15
   listed $129,000 Active 149-char remark

   Show marketing remark (149 chars)

   Very clean ground floor 2 bedroom 1 bath with 2 parking stalls and a fenced lanai. Pet friendly complex. Guest parking. To be sold "AS IS".

10. 2015-12-19
    historical
11. 2015-09-22
    listed $135,000 Active
12. 1991-12-31
    soldstatus $149,000
13. 1991-12-26
    soldstatus $149,000
14. 1987-07-01
    soldstatus $96,200
15. 1987-04-16
    soldstatus $86,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast HI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $571 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $571 · $48/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,046
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$571
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,164
• − Management: −$2,164
• − HOA: −$7,812
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $3,523
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$845
• After-tax cash flow: $3,986/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawaii Department Of Education
• NCES district ID: 1500030
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,005
• Composite: 37.07/100
• National rank: #4504
• State rank: #1 of 1 in HI

Livability — Wahiawa

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #18
• US rank: #6228

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wahiawa, HI
• County: Honolulu County · 963,448 people
• City population: 40,658
• Metro: Urban Honolulu, HI
• Population (ZIP): 40,658
• Household income: $85,554
• Rent vs Own: 68.9% rent · 31.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 3281.0

Population outlook (Honolulu County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,072,641 people
• By 2030: 1,110,460 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,181,593 · +10.2%
• By 2050: 1,257,584 · +17.2%
• By 2075: 1,501,120 · +39.9%
• By 2100: 1,764,430 · +64.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.83)
• Race & ethnicity: White 27% Asian 25% Two or more races 23% Hispanic / Latino 17% Black 10% Pacific Islander 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 10% Tagalog/Filipino 5% Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Honolulu

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.6) · D 59.9% · R 38.3% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.4pp toward R · 2008: 41.1pp · 2024: 21.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.6 2020: D+26.9 2016: D+29.9 2012: D+39.1 2008: D+41.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -494.74%
• Current HPI: 436.6298
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.83%
• Metro: Urban Honolulu, HI
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+243.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listing Removed — HiCentral MLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $295,000 HiCentral MLS
• 2026-02-21 Contingent — HiCentral MLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $120,000 HiCentral MLS
• 2018-01-18 Sold (Public Records) $116,000 Public Records
• 2018-01-18 Sold (MLS) $116,000 HiCentral MLS
• 2017-12-31 Pending — HiCentral MLS
• 2017-12-15 Listed $129,000 HiCentral MLS
• 2015-12-19 Listing Removed — HiCentral MLS
• 2015-09-22 Listed $135,000 HiCentral MLS
• 1991-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $149,000 Public Records
• 1991-12-26 Sold (Public Records) $149,000 Public Records
• 1987-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $96,200 Public Records
• 1987-04-16 Sold (Public Records) $86,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2022): $571 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.