16614 W Shrine Dr · Yarnell, AZ 85362

$80,000

1 bd · 0.5 ba · 780 sqft · SingleFamily · 149 Days on market

Built 1949 10,451 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great parcel, if you have vision, in the heart of Yarnell, AZ. Quaint, small-town charm surrounded by mountains & picturesque, mature landscape. Within walking distance of 'downtown' Yarnell, Flora Mae Park, The Shrine & Yarnell Memorial Park, amenities are just steps away. History abounds. Rumor has it this building was the first paint & lumber store in Yarnell. Even if not true, makes for a good story! The Yarnell Regional Comm Center is the heart of the town w/ fun events, volunteer opportunities & assistance for residents. This over-sized parcel is perimeter fenced w/ front & rear RV gates. Whether you prefer a remodel project or a new home, you can't beat the location & appeal of this rural mtn community. Blue skies, fresh air & 4 mild seasons - close to Prescott, Wickenburg & Phx.

Key facts

• Parcel in yarnell
• Perimeter fenced
• Rural mtn community

Tags

• PARCEL IN YARNELL
• WALKING DISTANCE OF DOWNTOWN
• PERIMETER FENCED
• FRONT AND REAR RV GATES
• RURAL MTN COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Gated parking; RV gate; Rear vehicle entry
• Utilities: Private water company; Septic tank / septic connected; County-maintained road
• Home design: Townhouse; Fee simple ownership; Condition: fixer
• Construction: Wood frame construction, painted exterior; Composition roof; Building area per assessor
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Chain-link and other fencing; Dirt, gravel/stone and grass at back of lot; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters
• Bedrooms: One possible bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood
• Bathrooms: One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating; Cooling: see remarks
• Interior features: Laminate counters; Carpet and wood flooring
• Laundry & utility: No laundry facilities

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/0.5-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $269 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($981 rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#253 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, employment D, amenities F.
• Yarnell Elementary District (4485) (rural): math 20% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #375 of 501 in AZ (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Yarnell Elementary School (math 30% / reading 30%, grade F, #540 of 1,109 statewide, top 49%, 33 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 57% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($553 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $57k (42%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $80k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.40%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $223,080
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22490 S Luna Way	0.17mi	2/1.0 (+1)	822 (+5%)	1mo	$235,000	$286	75
22673 S Crest Way	0.20mi	2/1.0 (+1)	728 (-7%)	3mo	$125,000	$172	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $28,653
• Equity at exit: $38,007

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.38×
• Total profit: $75,681
• Equity at exit: $60,208

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85362

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $981 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $638/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $269

Break-even live

Break-even rent $641

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $314	-5% $291	+0% $269	+5% $246	+10% $223
Rent	-10% $191	-5% $230	+0% $269	+5% $307	+10% $346
Rate	-1.0pp $309	-0.5pp $289	base $269	+0.5pp $248	+1.0pp $227

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $80,000 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $80,000 Active 143 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $80,000 Active 142 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 139 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 138 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $105,000 Active 137 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $105,000 Active 135 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $105,000 Active 133 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 132 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 131 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 130 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 129 DOM
17. 2026-05-05
    price $113,000 829-char remark

    Show marketing remark (829 chars)

    Great parcel, if you have vision, in the heart of Yarnell, AZ. Quaint, small-town charm surrounded by mountains & picturesque, mature landscape. Within walking distance of 'downtown' Yarnell, Flora Mae Park, The Shrine & Yarnell Memorial Park, amenities are just steps away. History abounds. Rumor has it this building was the first paint & lumber store in Yarnell. Even if not true, makes for a good story! The Yarnell Regional Comm Center is the heart of the town w/ fun events, volunteer opportunities & assistance for residents. This over-sized parcel is perimeter fenced w/ front & rear RV gates. Whether you prefer a remodel project or a new home, you can't beat the location & appeal of this rural mtn community. Blue skies, fresh air & 4 mild seasons - close to Prescott, Wickenburg & Phx.

18. 2026-05-05
    price $113,000

    Show marketing remark (829 chars)

    Great parcel, if you have vision, in the heart of Yarnell, AZ. Quaint, small-town charm surrounded by mountains & picturesque, mature landscape. Within walking distance of 'downtown' Yarnell, Flora Mae Park, The Shrine & Yarnell Memorial Park, amenities are just steps away. History abounds. Rumor has it this building was the first paint & lumber store in Yarnell. Even if not true, makes for a good story! The Yarnell Regional Comm Center is the heart of the town w/ fun events, volunteer opportunities & assistance for residents. This over-sized parcel is perimeter fenced w/ front & rear RV gates. Whether you prefer a remodel project or a new home, you can't beat the location & appeal of this rural mtn community. Blue skies, fresh air & 4 mild seasons - close to Prescott, Wickenburg & Phx.

19. 2026-04-15
    price $118,000 829-char remark

    Show marketing remark (829 chars)

    Great parcel, if you have vision, in the heart of Yarnell, AZ. Quaint, small-town charm surrounded by mountains & picturesque, mature landscape. Within walking distance of 'downtown' Yarnell, Flora Mae Park, The Shrine & Yarnell Memorial Park, amenities are just steps away. History abounds. Rumor has it this building was the first paint & lumber store in Yarnell. Even if not true, makes for a good story! The Yarnell Regional Comm Center is the heart of the town w/ fun events, volunteer opportunities & assistance for residents. This over-sized parcel is perimeter fenced w/ front & rear RV gates. Whether you prefer a remodel project or a new home, you can't beat the location & appeal of this rural mtn community. Blue skies, fresh air & 4 mild seasons - close to Prescott, Wickenburg & Phx.

20. 2026-04-15
    price $118,000

    Show marketing remark (829 chars)

    Great parcel, if you have vision, in the heart of Yarnell, AZ. Quaint, small-town charm surrounded by mountains & picturesque, mature landscape. Within walking distance of 'downtown' Yarnell, Flora Mae Park, The Shrine & Yarnell Memorial Park, amenities are just steps away. History abounds. Rumor has it this building was the first paint & lumber store in Yarnell. Even if not true, makes for a good story! The Yarnell Regional Comm Center is the heart of the town w/ fun events, volunteer opportunities & assistance for residents. This over-sized parcel is perimeter fenced w/ front & rear RV gates. Whether you prefer a remodel project or a new home, you can't beat the location & appeal of this rural mtn community. Blue skies, fresh air & 4 mild seasons - close to Prescott, Wickenburg & Phx.

21. 2026-04-03
    price $132,000 829-char remark

    Show marketing remark (829 chars)

    Great parcel, if you have vision, in the heart of Yarnell, AZ. Quaint, small-town charm surrounded by mountains & picturesque, mature landscape. Within walking distance of 'downtown' Yarnell, Flora Mae Park, The Shrine & Yarnell Memorial Park, amenities are just steps away. History abounds. Rumor has it this building was the first paint & lumber store in Yarnell. Even if not true, makes for a good story! The Yarnell Regional Comm Center is the heart of the town w/ fun events, volunteer opportunities & assistance for residents. This over-sized parcel is perimeter fenced w/ front & rear RV gates. Whether you prefer a remodel project or a new home, you can't beat the location & appeal of this rural mtn community. Blue skies, fresh air & 4 mild seasons - close to Prescott, Wickenburg & Phx.

22. 2026-04-03
    price $132,000

    Show marketing remark (829 chars)

    Great parcel, if you have vision, in the heart of Yarnell, AZ. Quaint, small-town charm surrounded by mountains & picturesque, mature landscape. Within walking distance of 'downtown' Yarnell, Flora Mae Park, The Shrine & Yarnell Memorial Park, amenities are just steps away. History abounds. Rumor has it this building was the first paint & lumber store in Yarnell. Even if not true, makes for a good story! The Yarnell Regional Comm Center is the heart of the town w/ fun events, volunteer opportunities & assistance for residents. This over-sized parcel is perimeter fenced w/ front & rear RV gates. Whether you prefer a remodel project or a new home, you can't beat the location & appeal of this rural mtn community. Blue skies, fresh air & 4 mild seasons - close to Prescott, Wickenburg & Phx.

23. 2026-01-20
    listed $137,000 Active
24. 2026-01-17
    listed $137,000 Active 829-char remark

    Show marketing remark (829 chars)

    Great parcel, if you have vision, in the heart of Yarnell, AZ. Quaint, small-town charm surrounded by mountains & picturesque, mature landscape. Within walking distance of 'downtown' Yarnell, Flora Mae Park, The Shrine & Yarnell Memorial Park, amenities are just steps away. History abounds. Rumor has it this building was the first paint & lumber store in Yarnell. Even if not true, makes for a good story! The Yarnell Regional Comm Center is the heart of the town w/ fun events, volunteer opportunities & assistance for residents. This over-sized parcel is perimeter fenced w/ front & rear RV gates. Whether you prefer a remodel project or a new home, you can't beat the location & appeal of this rural mtn community. Blue skies, fresh air & 4 mild seasons - close to Prescott, Wickenburg & Phx.

25. 1986-12-31
    soldstatus $32,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $638 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $638 · $53/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 1 d/yr ≥97°F today · 2 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,768
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$638
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$941
• − Management: −$941
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $2,039
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$489
• After-tax cash flow: $2,735/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Yarnell Elementary District (4485)
• NCES district ID: 0409510
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $35,920
• Composite: 19.81/100
• National rank: #13897
• State rank: #375 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Yarnell

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #253
• US rank: #23019

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Yarnell, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 586

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Salvadoran 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.45%
• Current HPI: 200.5772
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+253.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $113,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $113,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $118,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $118,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $132,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $132,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-20 Listed $137,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-17 Listed $137,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1986-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $638 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.