Dawning Plan · Parrish, FL 34219

$356,890

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,141 sqft · SingleFamily · 108 Days on market

Good condition Garage

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This spacious single-story home features both a storage space and multipurpose flex space for comfortable living. The stylish kitchen, family room and dining room cohesively flow into a serene patio for indoor-outdoor entertaining. The expansive owner's suite with a spa-like private bathroom overlooks two additional bedrooms ideal for overnight guests.

Key facts

• Serene patio
• Storage space
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• STORAGE SPACE
• MULTIPURPOSE FLEX SPACE
• SERENE PATIO
• SPA-LIKE PRIVATE BATHROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $356,890 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $410,440.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $357k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-613 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $322k (9.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $282k (21.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $282k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Virgil Mills Elementary School (math 69% / reading 65%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 818 students, 43% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2703 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 34d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($325k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $281,512 (21.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.40%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $410,440
• List price: $356,890
• Delta: -13.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12330 Precious Ruby Way	0.38mi	3/2.5	2,145 (+0%)	8mo	$382,415	$178	76
11845 Sparkling Topaz Cv	0.41mi	3/2.5	2,145 (+0%)	13mo	$359,900	$168	70
11825 Sparkling Topaz Cv	0.45mi	3/2.5	2,145 (+0%)	12mo	$373,415	$174	68
11562 Violet Jasper Dr	0.27mi	3/3.0	2,366 (+10%)	3mo	$368,000	$156	65
12743 Tahitian Pearl Cir	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,959 (-8%)	13mo	$400,000	$204	60
11948 Violet Jasper Dr	0.63mi	2/2.5 (-1)	2,216 (+4%)	1mo	$379,500	$171	59
12035 Violet Jasper Dr	0.47mi	3/2.5	2,350 (+10%)	4mo	$405,900	$173	59
11973 Violet Jasper Dr	0.56mi	3/2.5	2,350 (+10%)	2mo	$413,890	$176	56
12010 Violet Jasper Dr	0.55mi	3/2.5	2,350 (+10%)	4mo	$510,390	$217	55
11715 Lilac Pearl Ln	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,959 (-8%)	10mo	$365,000	$186	53
11837 Sparkling Topaz Cv	0.42mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,959 (-8%)	11mo	$324,665	$166	50
11804 Sparkling Topaz Cv	0.48mi	3/3.0	2,366 (+10%)	11mo	$360,000	$152	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-113,728
• Equity at exit: $61,198

10-year hold

• IRR: -53.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.57×
• Total profit: $-180,975
• Equity at exit: $35,487

Cash invested: $114,923 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 62 active · 6 under contract
• Months of supply: 41.3 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $350,777 ($173/sqft)
• Median days on market: 42 d
• This list price: 53% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +10.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2703
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,815 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,152
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$513 /mo · $6,157/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$591
• Net cashflow: $-613

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,590

Max offer price $321,808

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-329	-5% $-471	+0% $-613	+5% $-754	+10% $-896
Rent	-10% $-835	-5% $-724	+0% $-613	+5% $-501	+10% $-390
Rate	-1.0pp $-406	-0.5pp $-508	base $-613	+0.5pp $-719	+1.0pp $-827

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,610
• Closing costs: $12,313
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11007 Tamarack Pl Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2537	$3,000	$1.18	19d	1	1.01mi
11007 Tamarack Pl Unit NA Duette, FL	4.0	3.0	2537	$3,000	$1.18	61d	1	1.01mi
11937 Kingsley Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,700	$1.32	27d	1	1.06mi
12215 Radiant Gem Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2584	$3,000	$1.16	65d	1	1.08mi
12067 Kingsley Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,495	$1.22	52d	1	1.21mi
12456 Nantahala Run Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,699	$1.32	47d	1	1.24mi
12805 Crystal Jade Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2162	$2,600	$1.20	32d	1	1.28mi
13416 Noble Garnet Ln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1993	$2,395	$1.20	27d	1	1.38mi
13420 Noble Garnet Ln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1767	$2,095	$1.19	19d	1	1.38mi
13441 Noble Garnet Ln Parrish, FL	3.0	3.0	1747	$2,295	$1.31	33d	1	1.38mi
10826 Sapphire Breeze Cv Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,500	$1.35	52d	1	1.40mi
10642 Chippewa Dr Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2435	$2,600	$1.07	19d	1	1.44mi
12432 Dora Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2044	$3,000	$1.47	17d	1	1.46mi
10225 Kalamazoo Pl Unit NA Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,689	$1.19	59d	1	1.49mi
10225 Kalamazoo Pl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,789	$1.23	52d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Parrish, FL (12025 Prosperity Lakes Blvd)List price: $317,290Status: Active

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family plan (Dawning)
• Exterior features: Living area of 2141

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: New construction plan (Dawning)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $356,890 Active 108 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   pricedays on market $356,890 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   pricedays on market $356,390 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $355,890 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $355,890 Active 104 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $355,890 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $355,890 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $355,890 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-07-24
   days on market $355,890 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-07-23
    days on market $355,890 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-07-22
    days on market $355,890 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-07-21
    days on market $355,890 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-07-18
    days on market $355,890 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-07-18
    days on market $355,890 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-07-16
    days on market $355,890 Active 85 DOM
16. 2026-07-15
    days on market $355,890 Active 84 DOM
17. 2026-07-13
    days on market $355,890 Active 82 DOM
18. 2026-07-13
    pricedays on market $355,890 Active 81 DOM
19. 2026-07-11
    days on market $355,790 Active 80 DOM
20. 2026-07-10
    days on market $355,790 Active 79 DOM
21. 2026-07-09
    pricedays on market $355,790 Active 78 DOM
22. 2026-07-07
    price $320,790 Active 76 DOM
23. 2026-07-07
    days on market $320,690 Active 76 DOM
24. 2026-07-06
    days on market $320,690 Active 75 DOM
25. 2026-07-05
    pricedays on market $320,690 Active 74 DOM
26. 2026-07-03
    days on market $319,690 Active 72 DOM
27. 2026-07-02
    days on market $319,690 Active 71 DOM
28. 2026-07-01
    days on market $319,690 Active 70 DOM
29. 2026-06-30
    days on market $319,690 Active 69 DOM
30. 2026-06-29
    days on market $319,690 Active 68 DOM
31. 2026-06-28
    days on market $319,690 Active 67 DOM
32. 2026-06-27
    days on market $319,690 Active 66 DOM
33. 2026-06-27
    days on market $319,690 Active 65 DOM
34. 2026-06-25
    pricedays on market $319,690 Active 63 DOM
35. 2026-06-22
    days on market $319,390 Active 61 DOM
36. 2026-06-22
    pricedays on market $319,390 Active 60 DOM
37. 2026-06-18
    days on market $319,290 Active 57 DOM
38. 2026-06-18
    price $319,290 Active 56 DOM
39. 2026-06-17
    days on market $318,990 Active 56 DOM
40. 2026-06-16
    days on market $318,990 Active 55 DOM
41. 2026-06-15
    days on market $318,990 Active 54 DOM
42. 2026-06-13
    days on market $318,990 Active 52 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    pricedays on market $318,990 Active 51 DOM
44. 2026-06-10
    days on market $318,890 Active 49 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $318,890 Active 48 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $318,890 Active 47 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $318,790 Active 46 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $317,890 Active 42 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $317,890 Active 41 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $317,690 Active 40 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,781
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,991
• − Property taxes: −$6,157
• − Insurance: −$2,052
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,703
• − Management: −$2,703
• − Depreciation: −$11,940
• Taxable loss: −$14,763
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,543
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,807/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,705–$32,115 screening

This spacious single-story home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a modern kitchen, well-maintained bathrooms, and a clean exterior. The home is ready for a new owner or renter with minor maintenance items to address.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Replace the HVAC unit — Improves comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers/renters ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Virgil Mills Elementary School B+ FL #450/2,144 Nat'l #4,366/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Parrish

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 33,296
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

---

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Parrish, FL (12025 Prosperity Lakes Blvd)List price: $317,290Status: Active

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family plan (Dawning)
• Exterior features: Living area of 2141

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: New construction plan (Dawning)