3263 Vineyard Ave., #16 #16 · Pleasanton, CA 94566

$270,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · Manufactured public records · 48 Days on market

Built 2004 $205/sqft · at area comps Est $271k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• Schools +7.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Like New! Located in lovely, quiet Senior Park. Neutral paint and floor coverings. Open floor plan w/spacious great room attached to kitchen/dining area. 3 large bedrooms and 2 full baths. The park ammenities include a swimming pool, spa, sauna and large community rooms. Many year-round activities.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• One story living
• Plantation shutters

Tags

• ONE STORY LIVING
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• CATHEDRAL CEILING
• FRAMED DUAL PANE WINDOWS
• PLANTATION SHUTTERS
• WELL EQUIPPED KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Pets allowed (cats and dogs; restrictions and approval may apply; number and size limits); Senior community; Community amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool, sauna, BBQ area, game room, picnic area, dog park, guest parking, laundry (some laundry free), car wash area, RV parking and storage, activities available, park interview required, pet restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Covered carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in-park (mobile home); Double wide
• Construction: Masonite exterior; Crawl space foundation; Built as a manufactured/mobile home
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; No yard; Shed(s); Located close to clubhouse; Level site

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range / cooktop; Free-standing range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Laminate counters; Disposal; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (street level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Updated baths; Primary bath with stall shower and tub; Bathrooms include windows and shower-over-tub in non-primary bath
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Breakfast bar and breakfast nook; Dining area; Living room; Master bathroom
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer; Cabinets in laundry area; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $270k).
• Recommended offer: $262k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 1.3% in Pleasanton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#17 in CA, #655 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Pleasanton Unified (urban): math 75% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #43 of 1,400 in CA (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 6% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 152 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $76k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $155k; list at $270k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $261,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.20%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,503
• List price: $270,000
• Delta: -0.19%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3263 Vineyard #68	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-2%)	2mo	$275,000	$212	92
3263 Vineyard Ave. #35 #35	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (+4%)	3mo	$295,000	$216	84
3231 Vineyard Ave., #94 #94	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,340 (+2%)	0mo	$230,000	$172	81
3263 Vineyard #132	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-6%)	5mo	$185,000	$148	78
3263 Vineyard Ave #89	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,250 (-5%)	3mo	$280,000	$224	78
3231 Vineyard Ave #76	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,431 (+8%)	2mo	$370,000	$259	74
3263 Vineyard Ave #178	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+9%)	8mo	$238,000	$165	74
3231 Vineyard #37	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-2%)	10mo	$270,000	$208	73
3231 Vineyard Ave Spc 93	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,413 (+7%)	3mo	$287,000	$203	70
3231 Vineyard Ave #132	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,250 (-5%)	7mo	$159,000	$127	70
3231 Vineyard Ave #141 #141	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,180 (-11%)	3mo	$236,000	$200	63
3231 Vineyard Ave., #102 #102	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+9%)	9mo	$205,000	$142	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $52,832
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.72×
• Total profit: $205,881
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94566

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 152
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,692 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $629/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$775
• Net cashflow: $1,336

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,001

Max offer price $270,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
749 Palomino Dr Unit C Pleasanton, CA	2.0	1.5	1130	$3,250	$2.88	43d	1	0.46mi
3819 Vineyard Ave Pleasanton, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	863	$3,384	$3.92	1d	14	0.47mi
835 Palomino Dr Unit 2 Pleasanton, CA	2.0	1.5	1080	$2,850	$2.64	20d	1	0.50mi
3847 Vineyard Ave Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,700	$3.00	16d	1	0.51mi
242 Birch Creek Dr Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.5	1221	$3,100	$2.54	43d	1	0.53mi
223 Birch Creek Dr Pleasanton, CA	3.0	2.5	1848	$4,800	$2.60	3d	1	0.57mi
3955 Vineyard Ave Pleasanton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	829	$3,436	$4.14	1d	5	0.63mi
368 Trenton Cir Pleasanton, CA	4.0	3.0	1620	$5,000	$3.09	24d	1	0.66mi
4059 Vineyard Ave Pleasanton, CA	3.0	2.0	1300	$3,850	$2.96	24d	1	0.70mi
1539 Trimingham Dr Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.0	1369	$3,600	$2.63	1d	1	1.07mi
4678 Whiting St Pleasanton, CA	3.0	2.0	1538	$5,500	$3.58	24d	1	1.17mi
4468 Del Valle Pkwy Unit 1 Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.0	1280	$3,100	$2.42	16d	1	1.31mi
198 Peters Ave Unit C Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.0	878	$2,950	$3.36	43d	1	1.33mi
4320 Valley Ave Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.0	1073	$3,474	$3.24	2d	2	1.35mi
627 Rose Ave Apt 2 Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.0	1550	$3,288	$2.12	43d	1	1.40mi
627 Rose Ave Unit 1 Pleasanton, CA	3.0	2.0	1600	$3,788	$2.37	43d	1	1.40mi
2056 Olivia Ct Pleasanton, CA	4.0	2.5	1740	$4,300	$2.47	14d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $270,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $270,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $270,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $270,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $270,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $270,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $270,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $270,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $270,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $270,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $270,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $270,000 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $270,000 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $270,000 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    listed $270,000 Active 1194-char remark
16. 2013-05-15
    soldstatus $155,000 Sold 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    Like New! Located in lovely, quiet Senior Park. Neutral paint and floor coverings. Open floor plan w/spacious great room attached to kitchen/dining area. 3 large bedrooms and 2 full baths. The park ammenities include a swimming pool, spa, sauna and large community rooms. Many year-round activities.

17. 2013-05-01
    status Pending 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    Like New! Located in lovely, quiet Senior Park. Neutral paint and floor coverings. Open floor plan w/spacious great room attached to kitchen/dining area. 3 large bedrooms and 2 full baths. The park ammenities include a swimming pool, spa, sauna and large community rooms. Many year-round activities.

18. 2013-03-29
    historical Contingent 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    Like New! Located in lovely, quiet Senior Park. Neutral paint and floor coverings. Open floor plan w/spacious great room attached to kitchen/dining area. 3 large bedrooms and 2 full baths. The park ammenities include a swimming pool, spa, sauna and large community rooms. Many year-round activities.

19. 2012-10-03
    listed $165,000 New 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    Like New! Located in lovely, quiet Senior Park. Neutral paint and floor coverings. Open floor plan w/spacious great room attached to kitchen/dining area. 3 large bedrooms and 2 full baths. The park ammenities include a swimming pool, spa, sauna and large community rooms. Many year-round activities.

20. 2000-05-15
    soldstatus $60,000

    Show marketing remark (108 chars)

    COMPACT! CLEAN! LIGHT & BRIGHT! GREY BEIGE WALLS & CARPET. NEWER ROOF, AIR CONDITIONER. BUTCHERBLOCK

21. 2000-04-13
    historical

    Show marketing remark (108 chars)

    COMPACT! CLEAN! LIGHT & BRIGHT! GREY BEIGE WALLS & CARPET. NEWER ROOF, AIR CONDITIONER. BUTCHERBLOCK

22. 2000-01-24
    listed $65,000

    Show marketing remark (108 chars)

    COMPACT! CLEAN! LIGHT & BRIGHT! GREY BEIGE WALLS & CARPET. NEWER ROOF, AIR CONDITIONER. BUTCHERBLOCK

23. 1997-07-03
    soldstatus $51,000
24. 1997-07-03
    soldstatus $51,000
25. 1997-06-11
    historical
26. 1997-05-10
    listed $55,000
27. 1997-05-10
    listed $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $629 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,052 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,423/yr (+$119/mo · 226.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,301
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$629
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,544
• − Management: −$3,544
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable income: $12,255
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,941
• After-tax cash flow: $13,086/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pleasanton Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600020
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $123,770
• Composite: 73.12/100
• National rank: #351
• State rank: #43 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Pleasanton

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #655

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pleasanton, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 78,550
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,222
• Household income: $191,155
• Rent vs Own: 29.4% rent · 70.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1190.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Asian 38% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Russian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 33% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Other Indo-European 10% Chinese 10% Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -841.68%
• Current HPI: 308.8324
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.04%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+390.9% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $270,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2013-05-15 Sold (MLS) $155,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2013-05-01 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2013-03-29 Contingent — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2012-10-03 Listed $165,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2000-05-15 Sold (MLS) $60,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2000-04-13 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2000-01-24 Listed $65,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1997-07-03 Sold (MLS) $51,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1997-07-03 Sold (MLS) $51,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1997-06-11 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1997-05-10 Listed $55,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1997-05-10 Listed $55,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

-1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $629 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.