22036 Crystal Falls Dr · Mono Vista, CA 95370

$250,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,507 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1971 10,670 sqft lot Est $344k · 27% under $44/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Impeccable Potential! Let your imagination run wild as you bring this 3 bedrooms 2 baths 1,507 sq. ft. plus 2 bonus rooms home back to life! With your touch and charm, this home has everything you need. Level .17 lot with fenced backyard equipped with a chicken-coop to make of your animals feel right at home. Entertain with joy with open concept floor plan and easy access to the backyard. Downstairs you will find a full bathroom and 2 bedrooms. Upstairs is a generously spacious master bedroom with 2 great size bonus rooms. Take pleasure in easy walks to all the amenities Crystal Falls Ranch has to offer. Not one but 2 lakes to lay out and soak up some sun rays, Horse Stables that offer horseback riding, A private clubhouse to host all of your special events, basketball, tennis courts, and a gym. This home is priced to sell, don't delay call today! https://tcrealtors.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/All-Entrants-Notice-and-Pictogram-Sign-52620.pdf

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Private lake
• Bbq picnic area

Tags

• A-FRAME CABIN
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• PRIVATE LAKE
• HORSE STABLES
• CLUBHOUSE
• BBQ PICNIC AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Crystal Falls Homeowners Association; Quarterly HOA fee of $132; HOA amenities include clubhouse, BBQ area, and park; HOA transfer fees paid by seller

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Built in 1971
• Construction: Wood siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Back yard; Level lot; Fenced

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters; Dishwasher; Free‑standing range / oven
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the upper level; 2 bedrooms on the street level
• Bathrooms: 2 total bathrooms (1 full, 1 partial)
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating
• Interior features: No additional rooms; One wood-burning freestanding fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $442 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 5.0% in Mono Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#793 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B, employment B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Curtis Creek Elementary (rural): math 29% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #278 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $206k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.58%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $343,596
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21984 Crystal Falls Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,546 (+3%)	7mo	$337,000	$218	80
21931 Glenwood Rd	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,416 (-6%)	1mo	$351,000	$248	72
21881 Phoenix Lake Rd	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-7%)	2mo	$360,000	$257	66
16652 Sallander	0.58mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,482 (-2%)	1mo	$310,000	$209	64
17221 Smokey River Dr	0.60mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,512 (+0%)	0mo	$297,213	$197	62
21850 Phoenix Lake Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,608 (+7%)	3mo	$310,000	$193	62
22192 Crystal Falls Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,374 (-9%)	11mo	$369,000	$269	60
21441 Crestview Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,502 (-0%)	1mo	$292,500	$195	58
16925 American River Dr. West	0.51mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,388 (-8%)	3mo	$369,900	$266	50
17301 Smokey Riv	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,660 (+10%)	9mo	$379,000	$228	41
21517 Crystal Falls Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,366 (-9%)	9mo	$314,000	$230	39
22502 S Colorado River Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,712 (+14%)	9mo	$335,000	$196	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-12,366
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $25,460
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95370

• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,655 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$196 /mo · $2,354/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$44
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$558
• Net cashflow: $442

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,095

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $583	-5% $513	+0% $442	+5% $371	+10% $300
Rent	-10% $232	-5% $337	+0% $442	+5% $547	+10% $652
Rate	-1.0pp $568	-0.5pp $506	base $442	+0.5pp $377	+1.0pp $311

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21593 Crystal Falls Dr Sonora, CA	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,950	$2.36	24d	1	0.54mi
19011 Middle Camp Rd Twain Harte, CA	3.0	2.0	1586	$2,295	$1.45	14d	1	0.76mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $44 · $528/yr
• Likely covers: cablegym

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $250,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   remarks 551-char remark
7. 2026-06-12
   listed $250,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,354 · $196/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,354 · $196/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,858
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$2,354
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,549
• − Management: −$2,549
• − HOA: −$528
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable income: $1,352
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$325
• After-tax cash flow: $4,979/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Curtis Creek Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0610320
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $54,986
• Composite: 29.96/100
• National rank: #6372
• State rank: #278 of 517 in CA

Livability — Mono Vista

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #793
• US rank: #22675

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mono Vista, CA
• Population (ZIP): 28,373

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Russian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -322.67%
• Current HPI: 130.9637
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+92.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $250,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-23 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $193,830 CRMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $203,770 CRMLS
• 2025-12-01 Listed $224,250 CRMLS
• 2020-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $205,909 Public Records
• 2020-06-22 Sold (MLS) $206,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2020-05-06 Listed $199,995 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2012-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,354 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.