18717 Mill Villa #547 · Jamestown, CA 95327

$149,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Manufactured public records · 164 Days on market

Built 2022

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Mill Villa is a perfect location with shopping and the hospital nearby. Easy highway access. This home is 2022 model but was first sold in 2024 and only lived in for 13 months. Still shows like new. Set in the newer location of the park with no homes behind you. Larger unit with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms.

Key facts

• No homes behind you
• Shopping nearby
• Hospital nearby

Tags

• SHOPPING NEARBY
• HOSPITAL NEARBY
• EASY HIGHWAY ACCESS
• NO HOMES BEHIND YOU

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Park name: Mill Villa Estates; Pets allowed (cats and dogs permitted with number and size limits); Senior community; Community amenities: pool, heated spa, activities, RV storage

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Cable available; DSL available; Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter
• Home design: Manufactured in-park home; Mobile home (double wide, Stone Harbor model)
• Construction: Cement siding; Composition shingle roof
• Exterior features: Automatic sprinklers; Storage; Low-maintenance yard; Located on a cul-de-sac; Sloped-up lot; Street lighting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range / cooktop; Refrigerator; Pantry; Solid surface countertops
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (propane); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Solid surface countertops; Pantry; Double-pane windows; Great room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer; 220-volt outlet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $399 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 4.5% in Jamestown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#980 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B; Watch: housing C-, cost of living D, schools F.
• Sonora Union High (town): math 21% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #243 of 517 in CA (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $131,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.45%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $94,640
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18717 Mill Villa Rd #250	0.00mi	3/2.0	944 (-9%)	3mo	$85,500	$91	82
18717 Mill Villa #101 #101	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (0%)	18mo	$144,000	$138	80
18717 Mill Villa Rd #402 #402	0.00mi	3/2.0	960 (-8%)	12mo	$89,000	$93	77
18717 Mill Villa Rd #421 #421	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-8%)	9mo	$60,000	$63	75
18717 Mill Villa Rd #156	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,135 (+9%)	6mo	$72,000	$63	75
18725 Hwy 108 #71 #71	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+11%)	22mo	$59,000	$51	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,174
• Equity at exit: $22,291

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $33,645
• Equity at exit: $12,926

Cash invested: $41,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95327

• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,699 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$784
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,160/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $399

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,194

Max offer price $149,500

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $484	-5% $442	+0% $399	+5% $357	+10% $315
Rent	-10% $265	-5% $332	+0% $399	+5% $466	+10% $533
Rate	-1.0pp $475	-0.5pp $437	base $399	+0.5pp $361	+1.0pp $321

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,375
• Closing costs: $4,485
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-05
   listed $149,500 Active
3. 2025-11-24
   historical
4. 2025-11-09
   status Pending
5. 2025-10-29
   price
6. 2025-07-31
   listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,160 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,160 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,388
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,374
• − Property taxes: −$1,160
• − Insurance: −$748
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,631
• − Management: −$1,631
• − Depreciation: −$4,349
• Taxable income: $2,495
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$599
• After-tax cash flow: $4,192/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sonora Union High
• NCES district ID: 0637260
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,252
• Composite: 33.41/100
• National rank: #5470
• State rank: #243 of 517 in CA

Livability — Jamestown

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #980
• US rank: #24642

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime B Employment F Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jamestown, CA
• Population (ZIP): 8,799

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -129.96%
• Current HPI: 100.2616
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-12-05 Listed $149,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-11-24 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-11-09 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-07-31 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

-5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,160 · -5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.