509 S 4th St W · Baker, MT 59313

$180,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,492 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 159 Days on market

Built 1962 7,668 sqft lot $72/sqft · 14% below area Est $210k · 14% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Appreciation +8.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home is a must see! Upstairs features a large entry way that is open to a sunken family room with a built in entertainment center and has access to the fenced in backyard. This opens to the kitchen with ample counter/cupboard space and newer appliances. Off of the kitchen is access to another living space/dining room, 2 bedrooms and a full bath. One bedroom has a dream oversized walk in closet. Downstairs has 2 more finished bedrooms, 1 unfinished bedroom, a full bath with a cement shower, more living space, laundry room and plenty of storage areas. This home is full of opportunity and growth. Outside has a fenced yard, front deck, off street parking, and a 2 car detached garage that is accessible through the alley. Please contact listing agent for more details or to schedule a showing.

Key facts

• Fenced in backyard
• Newer appliances
• Cement shower

Tags

• FENCED IN BACKYARD
• BUILT IN ENTERTAINMENT CENTER
• AMPLE COUNTER CUPBOARD SPACE
• NEWER APPLIANCES
• DREAM OVERSIZED WALK IN CLOSET
• CEMENT SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $163 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (8.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#4 in MT, #1,349 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
• Baker K-12 Schools (rural): math 42% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #52 of 116 in MT (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Fallon County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (7.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $158,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.88%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $210,000
• List price: $180,000
• Delta: -14.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
602 S 6th St W	0.12mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,444 (-2%)	9mo	$210,000	$86	79
214 S 5th St E	0.73mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,461 (-1%)	2mo	$160,000	$65	57
1210 S 2nd St W	0.52mi	5/3.0	2,705 (+8%)	9mo	$320,000	$118	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $76,088
• Equity at exit: $127,802

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.23×
• Total profit: $213,063
• Equity at exit: $245,596

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59313

• Home prices YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,648 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,441/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,442

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 159 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 158 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 157 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 156 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 154 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $180,000 Active 153 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 150 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Active 149 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $180,000 Active 148 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $180,000 Active 146 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $180,000 Active 144 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 143 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 142 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 141 DOM
15. 2026-04-14
    price $180,000 802-char remark

    Show marketing remark (802 chars)

    This home is a must see! Upstairs features a large entry way that is open to a sunken family room with a built in entertainment center and has access to the fenced in backyard. This opens to the kitchen with ample counter/cupboard space and newer appliances. Off of the kitchen is access to another living space/dining room, 2 bedrooms and a full bath. One bedroom has a dream oversized walk in closet. Downstairs has 2 more finished bedrooms, 1 unfinished bedroom, a full bath with a cement shower, more living space, laundry room and plenty of storage areas. This home is full of opportunity and growth. Outside has a fenced yard, front deck, off street parking, and a 2 car detached garage that is accessible through the alley. Please contact listing agent for more details or to schedule a showing.

16. 2026-03-06
    price $205,000 802-char remark

    Show marketing remark (802 chars)

    This home is a must see! Upstairs features a large entry way that is open to a sunken family room with a built in entertainment center and has access to the fenced in backyard. This opens to the kitchen with ample counter/cupboard space and newer appliances. Off of the kitchen is access to another living space/dining room, 2 bedrooms and a full bath. One bedroom has a dream oversized walk in closet. Downstairs has 2 more finished bedrooms, 1 unfinished bedroom, a full bath with a cement shower, more living space, laundry room and plenty of storage areas. This home is full of opportunity and growth. Outside has a fenced yard, front deck, off street parking, and a 2 car detached garage that is accessible through the alley. Please contact listing agent for more details or to schedule a showing.

17. 2026-01-11
    listed $215,000 Active 802-char remark

    Show marketing remark (802 chars)

    This home is a must see! Upstairs features a large entry way that is open to a sunken family room with a built in entertainment center and has access to the fenced in backyard. This opens to the kitchen with ample counter/cupboard space and newer appliances. Off of the kitchen is access to another living space/dining room, 2 bedrooms and a full bath. One bedroom has a dream oversized walk in closet. Downstairs has 2 more finished bedrooms, 1 unfinished bedroom, a full bath with a cement shower, more living space, laundry room and plenty of storage areas. This home is full of opportunity and growth. Outside has a fenced yard, front deck, off street parking, and a 2 car detached garage that is accessible through the alley. Please contact listing agent for more details or to schedule a showing.

18. 1995-08-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MT · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,441 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,512 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: +$71/yr (+$6/mo · 4.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥95°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,779
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$1,441
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,582
• − Management: −$1,582
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$1,045
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$251
• After-tax cash flow: $2,208/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baker K-12 Schools
• NCES district ID: 3002730
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $52,699
• Composite: 35.19/100
• National rank: #4996
• State rank: #52 of 116 in MT

Livability — Baker

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1349

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baker, MT
• Population (ZIP): 2,147

Population outlook (Fallon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,692 people
• By 2030: 3,986 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 4,662 · +26.3%
• By 2050: 5,439 · +47.3%
• By 2075: 7,519 · +103.7%
• By 2100: 8,763 · +137.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Native American 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 21% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fallon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+75.6) · D 10.8% · R 86.5% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.5pp toward R · 2008: -52.1pp · 2024: -75.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+75.6 2020: R+76.4 2016: R+76.1 2012: R+63.4 2008: R+52.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.26%
• Current HPI: 157.9608
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

-16.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $180,000 BMTMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $205,000 BMTMLS
• 2026-01-11 Listed $215,000 BMTMLS
• 1995-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,441 · -17.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.