40701 Rancho Vista Blvd #15 · Palmdale, CA 93551

$190,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 107 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1985 Average condition $152/sqft · 6% below area Est $203k · 6% under ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -5.7

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious Double-Wide Home in the Highly Desirable Boulder 1 Mobile Home Park! This all-ages, gated community offers resort-style amenities including a pool, park, tennis courts, basketball court, and recreation clubhouse, everything you need just steps from your door! The home features 3 generous bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, including a master suite with a private bath. Step outside to a large backyard and side porch, perfect for entertaining or relaxing under the sun. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, and everything you need, this vibrant, welcoming community is ready for you to call home. Don't wait, schedule a private showing today.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Double-wide home
• Tennis courts

Tags

• DOUBLE-WIDE HOME
• BOULDER 1 MOBILE HOME PARK
• GATED COMMUNITY
• RESORT-STYLE AMENITIES
• POOL
• TENNIS COURTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $815 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $173k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 4.3% in Palmdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#861 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Westside Union Elementary (suburban): math 34% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #565 of 1,400 in CA (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Gregg Anderson Academy (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #973 of 1,571 statewide, top 73%, 867 students, 27% FRL); Hillview Middle (math 10% / reading 10%, grade F, #474 of 498 statewide, top 99%, 907 students, 53% FRL); Quartz Hill High (3,066 students, 42% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 17% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Westside Union Elementary average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 537 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 43d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,900 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.38%
• DSCR: 1.82
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $203,000
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: -6.40%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40701 Rancho Vista Blvd Blvd #43	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,248 (0%)	5mo	$150,000	$120	96
40701 W Rancho Vista Blvd #103	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,272 (+2%)	3mo	$189,000	$149	94
40701 Rancho Vista Blvd #47	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,248 (0%)	10mo	$209,000	$167	92
40701 Rancho Vista Blvd #6	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,248 (0%)	13mo	$210,000	$168	89
40701 Rancho Vista Blvd Spc 178	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-4%)	13mo	$182,000	$152	83
40701 Rancho Vista Blvd #120	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	7mo	$268,000	$199	82
40701 Rancho Vista Blvd Spc 263	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	7mo	$189,000	$164	81
40701 Rancho Vista Blvd #79	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,327 (+6%)	11mo	$200,000	$151	80
40701 Rancho Vista Blvd #142	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,344 (+8%)	6mo	$175,000	$130	80
40701 Rancho Vista Blvd #122	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	11mo	$239,000	$207	78
40701 Rancho Vista Blvd Spc 358	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-14%)	4mo	$245,000	$227	74
40701 Rancho Vis	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-14%)	4mo	$245,000	$227	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $19,299
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $76,271
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 3 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 2.6 mo (39%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $199,999 ($160/sqft)
• Median days on market: 43 d
• This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 93551

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 537
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,471 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $741/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $815

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,440

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $923	-5% $869	+0% $815	+5% $761	+10% $708
Rent	-10% $620	-5% $717	+0% $815	+5% $913	+10% $1,010
Rate	-1.0pp $911	-0.5pp $863	base $815	+0.5pp $766	+1.0pp $716

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4660 Grandview Dr Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1494	$2,995	$2.00	43d	1	0.50mi
4620 Grandview Dr Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1494	$2,900	$1.94	4d	1	0.58mi
4520 Paseo Hermoso Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1446	$3,300	$2.28	0d	1	0.67mi
5637 Redwood Ave Unit B Palmdale, CA	2.0	1.0	760	$2,445	$3.22	84d	1	1.04mi
41015 41st St W Palmdale, CA	4.0	2.0	1200	$3,500	$2.92	0d	1	1.09mi
4851 West Avenue M-8 Unit M-8 Quartz Hill, CA	2.0	1.0	858	$2,500	$2.91	0d	1	1.31mi
40333 Argyle Ln Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1374	$3,200	$2.33	111d	1	1.31mi
4851 W Avenue M8 Lancaster, CA	2.0	1.0	858	$2,500	$2.91	0d	1	1.34mi
4851 W Avenue M8 Lancaster, CA	2.0	1.0	858	$2,500	$2.91	48d	1	1.34mi
3826 Cocina Ln Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1374	$3,000	$2.18	63d	1	1.36mi
3713 West Avenue M 11 Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$3,100	$2.58	0d	1	1.37mi
3809 Cocina Ln Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1410	$2,900	$2.06	83d	1	1.39mi
4842 West Avenue M-4 Unit M4 Lancaster, CA	3.0	1.0	1500	$2,450	$1.63	59d	1	1.50mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 0–1 unit per acreLiving area reported from assessor's dataParcel number 8950922015
• HOA & community: Part of an associationLand lease: $676.26

Exterior

• Parking: Located in Boulders #1 park
• Utilities: Public sewerDistrict/public water
• Home design: Single-story (1 story)Entry level is on the first floorMobile home remains on siteMobile dimensions approximately 24 ft wide by 56 ft long
• Construction: Year built: see remarks
• Exterior features: Community poolStreet lighting

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling
• Interior features: Front door entry
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $190,000 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $190,000 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $190,000 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $190,000 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $190,000 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $190,000 Active 102 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 101 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 100 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 99 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $190,000 Active 98 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $190,000 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $190,000 Active 96 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $190,000 Active 95 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $190,000 Active 94 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $190,000 Active 88 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $190,000 Active 87 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $190,000 Active 85 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 83 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $190,000 Active 82 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $190,000 Active 81 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $190,000 Active 80 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $190,000 Active 79 DOM
23. 2026-08-26
    days on market $190,000 Active 78 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $190,000 Active 77 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $190,000 Active 76 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $190,000 Active 75 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $190,000 Active 74 DOM
28. 2026-08-21
    days on market $190,000 Active 73 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $190,000 Active 72 DOM
30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $190,000 Active 71 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $190,000 Active 70 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $190,000 Active 69 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $190,000 Active 68 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $190,000 Active 67 DOM
35. 2026-08-14
    days on market $190,000 Active 66 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $190,000 Active 65 DOM
37. 2026-08-12
    days on market $190,000 Active 64 DOM
38. 2026-08-11
    days on market $190,000 Active 63 DOM
39. 2026-08-10
    days on market $190,000 Active 62 DOM
40. 2026-08-09
    days on market $190,000 Active 61 DOM
41. 2026-08-08
    days on market $190,000 Active 60 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $190,000 Active 58 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $190,000 Active 57 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $190,000 Active 56 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $190,000 Active 55 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 52 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $190,000 Active 51 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $190,000 Active 50 DOM
49. 2026-07-28
    days on market $190,000 Active 49 DOM
50. 2026-07-26
    days on market $190,000 Active 47 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $741 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,444 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$703/yr (+$59/mo · 94.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,656
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$741
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,372
• − Management: −$2,372
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable income: $7,050
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,692
• After-tax cash flow: $8,089/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,240–$18,720 screening

This mobile home in a desirable park needs cosmetic updates to its exterior and interior to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor exterior siding — Visible weathering
• Minor roof — Aged appearance

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both replace carpet — Improves comfort and value ↑
• Both update kitchen appliances — Modernizes and increases value ↑
• Both update bathrooms — Modernizes and increases value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 17/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Gregg Anderson Academy F CA #973/1,571 Nat'l #30,133/41,679 Middle Hillview Middle F CA #474/498 Nat'l #13,307/14,009 High Quartz Hill High

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Westside Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0642120
• Math proficiency: 34% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $80,763
• Composite: 41.01/100
• National rank: #7473
• State rank: #565 of 1400 in CA

D Composite livability gradescore 55/100

Livability — Palmdale

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #861
• US rank: #23501

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palmdale, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 10,940,515 people
• City population: 177,644
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 54,360
• Household income: $119,801
• Rent vs Own: 21.2% rent · 78.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 33% Two or more races 17% Black 10% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.22%
• Current HPI: 327.1791
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.29%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 0–1 unit per acreLiving area reported from assessor's dataParcel number 8950922015
• HOA & community: Part of an associationLand lease: $676.26

Exterior

• Parking: Located in Boulders #1 park
• Utilities: Public sewerDistrict/public water
• Home design: Single-story (1 story)Entry level is on the first floorMobile home remains on siteMobile dimensions approximately 24 ft wide by 56 ft long
• Construction: Year built: see remarks
• Exterior features: Community poolStreet lighting

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling
• Interior features: Front door entry
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

Price history

-17.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Relisted — AVMLS
• 2026-06-09 Listed $190,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-21 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2025-11-11 Listed $190,000 AVMLS
• 2024-11-25 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-10-31 Price Changed $224,900 CRMLS
• 2024-09-06 Listed $229,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $741 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.