602 White Birch Rd · Catskill, NY 12526

$695,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 199 Days on market

Built 2006 2.40 ac lot Est $1143k · 39% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Country living and rural charm describes this well maintained home with beautiful mountain views and majestic sunsets. Just a short drive to Hudson and Catskill, this 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath home on 2 acres is just waiting for you! Sit on the covered front porch and gaze at the mountains, or entertain family and friends on the patio. The open concept first floor is roomy enough for a large gathering. Upstairs, the primary bdrm features 2 walk in closets, a bath with soaking tub and stand up shower. There are 2 more bedrooms, full bath and washer/dryer on this floor. The basement is partially finished, with a bonus room, space for entertaining and tons of storage! There is a large breezeway, and

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Soaking tub
• Walk in closets

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• OPEN CONCEPT FIRST FLOOR
• WALK IN CLOSETS
• SOAKING TUB
• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $695k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $671 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $650k (6.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $612k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.9% in Catskill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#483 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Germantown Central School District (rural): math 54% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #387 of 755 in NY (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Germantown Elementary School (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 276 students, 41% FRL); Germantown Junior-Senior High School (math 57% / reading 54%, grade C, #905 of 1,100 statewide, top 83%, 209 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $74k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $70k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $195k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$119k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 199 days — a 12% lower offer ($612k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $611,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 199 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.14%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,142,736
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
138 CR 10	0.37mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,328 (+9%)	16mo	$1,250,000	$537	43
34 Wire Road Rd	0.58mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,400 (+13%)	23mo	$1,200,000	$500	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.16×
• Total profit: $421,144
• Equity at exit: $626,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.20×
• Total profit: $1,206,370
• Equity at exit: $1,350,232

Cash invested: $194,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12526

• Home prices YoY: 8.9%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,645
• Tax from tax record: −$530 /mo · $6,357/yr
• Insurance: −$290
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,365
• Net cashflow: $671

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,651

Max offer price $695,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,064	-5% $868	+0% $671	+5% $474	+10% $278
Rent	-10% $158	-5% $414	+0% $671	+5% $928	+10% $1,185
Rate	-1.0pp $1,021	-0.5pp $848	base $671	+0.5pp $491	+1.0pp $308

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $173,750
• Closing costs: $20,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5265 New York 9G Germantown, NY	4.0	2.5	1868	$6,500	$3.48	45d	1	0.40mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2025-12-15
   soldstatus $620,000
2. 2025-09-12
   status Pending
3. 2025-09-12
   status Pending
4. 2025-02-24
   listed $695,000 Active
5. 2025-02-24
   listed $695,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,357 · $530/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,051 · $754/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,694/yr (+$225/mo · 42.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $78,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$38,931
• − Property taxes: −$6,357
• − Insurance: −$3,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,240
• − Management: −$6,240
• − Depreciation: −$20,218
• Taxable loss: −$3,461
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$831
• After-tax cash flow: $8,883/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Germantown Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3612030
• Math proficiency: 54% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,242
• Composite: 47.76/100
• National rank: #4894
• State rank: #387 of 755 in NY

Livability — Catskill

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #483
• US rank: #8498

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 10,169
• Population (ZIP): 3,427

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,662 people
• By 2030: 56,557 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 51,324 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 45,790 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 35,232 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 25,846 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: D (+14.7) · D 57.4% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 13.4pp · 2024: 14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.7 2020: D+16.7 2016: D+1.4 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 41.93%
• Current HPI: 511.9627
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-10.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $620,000 Public Records
• 2025-09-12 Pending — HVCRMLS
• 2025-09-12 Pending — Global MLS
• 2025-02-24 Listed $695,000 Global MLS
• 2025-02-24 Listed $695,000 HVCRMLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,357 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.