188 Oak Ridge Rd · Mountain Plains, SD 57783

$3,500

4 bd · 5.0 ba · 2,944 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1988 4.44 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 4.44 acres
• Expansive windows
• Gas fireplace

Tags

• 4.44 ACRES
• GAS FIREPLACE
• OVERSIZED LIVING ROOM
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• STONE FIREPLACE
• EXPANSIVE WINDOWS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener
• Home design: Single family residence (site built); Residential property
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered deck; Shed(s); Wooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas range; Gas oven; Refrigerator; Water softener
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 2 bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Ceiling fans; Cooling present
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Partial walk-out basement; Basement present
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry; Dryer

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $3,500 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$783,104) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/5.0-bath single-family listed at $4k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($22k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $4k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Spearfish School District 40-2 (town): math 45% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #32 of 59 in SD (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 288 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $24 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $105 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lawrence County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $980 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $3,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 67.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 641.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 2268.63%
• DSCR: 101.94
• GRM: 0.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $783,104
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
378 Oak Ridge Rd	0.54mi	4/3.0	2,946 (+0%)	8mo	$782,500	$266	60
376 Lone Elk Rd	0.51mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,280 (+11%)	10mo	$671,000	$205	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 120.87×
• Total profit: $117,469
• Equity at exit: $522

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 260.57×
• Total profit: $254,380
• Equity at exit: $303

Cash invested: $980 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Dakota: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; mostly landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 57783

• Active inventory: 288
• Price-to-rent: 0.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,376 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$18
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$4 /mo · $52/yr
• Insurance: −$1
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $1,853

Break-even live

Break-even rent $31

Max offer price $3,500

Occupancy floor 17%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,855	-5% $1,854	+0% $1,853	+5% $1,852	+10% $1,850
Rent	-10% $1,665	-5% $1,759	+0% $1,853	+5% $1,947	+10% $2,040
Rate	-1.0pp $1,854	-0.5pp $1,854	base $1,853	+0.5pp $1,852	+1.0pp $1,851

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $875
• Closing costs: $105
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $3,500 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $3,500 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $3,500 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $3,500 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $3,500 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   listed $3,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 2 d/yr ≥90°F today · 5 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,510
• − Mortgage interest: −$196
• − Property taxes: −$52
• − Insurance: −$18
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,281
• − Management: −$2,281
• − Depreciation: −$102
• Taxable income: $23,580
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,659
• After-tax cash flow: $16,573/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spearfish School District 40-2
• NCES district ID: 4666930
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,524
• Composite: 42.54/100
• National rank: #3199
• State rank: #32 of 59 in SD

Livability — Mountain Plains

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mountain Plains, SD
• County: Lawrence County · 17,248 people
• Metro: Spearfish, SD
• Population (ZIP): 17,248
• Household income: $74,844
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 580.0

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,092 people
• By 2030: 28,137 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 29,908 · +10.4%
• By 2050: 31,789 · +17.3%
• By 2075: 38,917 · +43.6%
• By 2100: 50,407 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 12% Iranian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.3) · D 32.9% · R 64.3% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: -15.4pp · 2024: -31.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.3 2020: R+30.5 2016: R+34.2 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+15.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -174.59%
• Current HPI: 206.2001
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Spearfish, SD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.70%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities	1	$1B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $3,500 MRAOR
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $3,000 MRAOR
• 2025-12-01 Listed $3,500 MRAOR

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,502 · -2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.