801 Schipper St #68 · Arvin, CA 93203

$29,995

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 752 sqft · Manufactured public records · 67 Days on market

Built 1975 $40/sqft · 44% above area Est $20k · 50% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to Casa Estate Arvin - the best up and coming community in Arvin!! This 2 bedroom, 1 bath home with a LARGE footprint is available for sale! Stop by or give us a call today! Exterior of the home has received a new roof, new skirting and siding and new windows and doors. The inside is a blank canvas for you to create your masterpiece!

Key facts

• New siding
• New doors
• New skirting

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW SKIRTING
• NEW SIDING
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW DOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $577 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $28k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 42/100 on livability (#1,368 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D+, schools F.
• Kern High (urban): math 21% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #860 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($28k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $28,195 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 34.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 99.86%
• DSCR: 5.44
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $20,000
• List price: $29,995
• Delta: 49.98%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
801 Schipper St #68	0.00mi	2/1.0	720 (-4%)	1mo	$20,000	$28	92
801 Schipper St #45	0.00mi	2/2.0	800 (+6%)	7mo	$9,000	$11	80
801 Schipper St #57	0.07mi	2/1.0	800 (+6%)	9mo	$60,000	$75	79

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 82.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.80×
• Total profit: $31,945
• Equity at exit: $4,472

10-year hold

• IRR: 86.1%
• Equity multiple: 9.98×
• Total profit: $75,435
• Equity at exit: $2,593

Cash invested: $8,399 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93203

• Home prices YoY: -5.4%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,124 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $227/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $577

Break-even live

Break-even rent $394

Max offer price $29,995

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $594	-5% $585	+0% $577	+5% $568	+10% $560
Rent	-10% $488	-5% $532	+0% $577	+5% $621	+10% $665
Rate	-1.0pp $592	-0.5pp $584	base $577	+0.5pp $569	+1.0pp $561

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,499
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
668 Comanche Dr Arvin, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,329	$1.23	3d	1	0.59mi
225 Meyer St Arvin, CA	2.0	1.0	788	$1,036	$1.31	3d	1	0.80mi
200 Haven Dr Apt B Arvin, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$995	$1.17	3d	1	0.83mi

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $227 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $228 · $19/mo
• Expected delta: +$1/yr ($0/mo · 0.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AO · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 25 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,483
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$227
• − Insurance: −$1,617
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,079
• − Management: −$1,079
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $6,928
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,663
• After-tax cash flow: $5,257/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kern High
• NCES district ID: 0619540
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,686
• Composite: 33.68/100
• National rank: #10443
• State rank: #860 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Arvin

• Score: 42/100
• State rank: #1368
• US rank: #27087

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arvin, CA
• Population (ZIP): 20,571

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 94% Two or more races 29% White 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 91%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada
• Languages at home: 17% English-only · Spanish 83%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -19.57%
• Current HPI: 342.8562
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+11.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $227 · +176.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.