125 Riverside Dr E · Timberville, VA 22853

$200,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1974 10,454 sqft lot Est $261k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Perfect 3 Bedroom. 1 Bath Rancher in need of some TLC. Priced to sell w/fenced yard. Property being sold as is, Where is w/no warr. or repairs. Sq.Ft. approx.

Key facts

• Covered carport
• Natural gas service
• Fully fenced yard

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• STAINLESS STEEL REFRIGERATOR
• PUBLIC WATER AND SEWER
• NATURAL GAS SERVICE
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• COVERED CARPORT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Underground electric; Cable available; Natural gas available
• Home design: Detached single-story home; Entry on first level; Rolling lot topography
• Construction: Stick-built construction with vinyl siding; Block foundation; Shingle/composition roof; Built with above-grade finished living area per public records
• Exterior features: Fully fenced yard; Front porch / porch; Other exterior structure

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating (electric and natural gas); Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Primary bedroom on the main level; Tilt-in windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $52 ($630/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (20.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#283 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Rockingham County Public School District (rural): math 47% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #77 of 131 in VA (top 59%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Plains Elementary (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #966 of 1,108 statewide, top 89%, 456 students, 65% FRL); J. Frank Hillyard Middle (math 51% / reading 59%, grade B-, #189 of 342 statewide, top 56%, 665 students, 49% FRL); Broadway High (math 68% / reading 79%, grade B+, #124 of 319 statewide, top 40%, 923 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 32% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 683 units permitted in Rockingham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rockingham County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $200k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,500 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.12%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $260,680
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
153 Riverside Dr E	0.05mi	3/2.0	992 (+1%)	23mo	$265,000	$267	72
273 Riverside Dr E	0.27mi	3/1.0	894 (-9%)	4mo	$250,900	$281	70
296 Cherry St	0.30mi	3/1.5	980 (0%)	20mo	$260,000	$265	68
277 New Market Rd	0.52mi	3/1.0	960 (-2%)	8mo	$255,000	$266	66
189 Maple Ave	0.26mi	3/1.0	897 (-8%)	12mo	$237,900	$265	64
349 Maple Ave	0.53mi	3/1.0	992 (+1%)	13mo	$262,900	$265	63
15524 Evergreen Valley Rd	0.59mi	3/1.0	876 (-11%)	7mo	$285,000	$325	49
385 Walker	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,050 (+7%)	4mo	$278,000	$265	47
15428 Evergreen Valley Rd	0.50mi	3/1.0	864 (-12%)	16mo	$235,000	$272	43
145 Memorial Park Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+14%)	15mo	$300,000	$268	41
392 Walker Way	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,100 (+12%)	11mo	$237,500	$216	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-29,150
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-21,418
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22853

• Home prices YoY: -22.6%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,595 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $905/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,529

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $166	-5% $109	+0% $52	+5% $-4	+10% $-61
Rent	-10% $-74	-5% $-11	+0% $52	+5% $115	+10% $178
Rate	-1.0pp $153	-0.5pp $103	base $52	+0.5pp $1	+1.0pp $-52

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5473 Orchard Dr Timberville, VA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,595	$1.88	23d	1	0.92mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $200,000 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-07
   listed $200,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $905 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,640 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$735/yr (+$61/mo · 81.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,140
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$905
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,531
• − Management: −$1,531
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$2,849
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$684
• After-tax cash flow: $1,313/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockingham County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103390
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $53,178
• Composite: 47.58/100
• National rank: #2264
• State rank: #77 of 131 in VA

Livability — Timberville

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #283
• US rank: #10125

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Timberville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 4,876

Population outlook (Rockingham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 83,435 people
• By 2030: 85,223 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 87,667 · +5.1%
• By 2050: 88,550 · +6.1%
• By 2075: 90,331 · +8.3%
• By 2100: 85,122 · +2.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 6% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rockingham

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.0) · D 30.9% · R 68.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.0pp toward R · 2008: -36.0pp · 2024: -37.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.0 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+43.5 2012: R+40.6 2008: R+36.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.44%
• Current HPI: 189.9975
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+54.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $200,000 GAAR
• 2008-07-09 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2008-07-09 Sold (MLS) $120,000 HRAR
• 2007-12-28 Listed $129,900 HRAR

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $905 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.