3504 James Phillips Way · Gatlinburg, TN 37876

$375,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,516 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 364 Days on market

Built 1995 1.00 ac lot $247/sqft · 35% below area Est $618k · 39% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked into the beauty of Sevier County, this inviting home offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and opportunity. Situated on approximately 1 acre, this property gives you room to breathe while still being conveniently located to everything Sevierville has to offer. The home itself is warm and welcoming, offering a layout that works for both everyday living and hosting family and friends. Whether you're looking for a primary residence, a second home, or an investment opportunity, this property checks all the right boxes. One of the standout features here is flexibility--buyers have the option to purchase additional adjoining acreage (4.04 acres), creating even more space and potential if desired. A one-year home warranty is included, giving added peace of mind as you settle in. If you've been looking for a property that offers both livability and future opportunity, this one is absolutely worth a look. Disclaimer: All information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Buyer and buyer's agent to perform all due diligence and independently verify all details, including but not limited to square footage, acreage, zoning, condition, and availability of utilities.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 1995
• Listed 364 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-827 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $255k (31.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (40.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (40.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 1.2% in Gatlinburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#27 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, employment D-.
• Sevier County (rural): math 31% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #62 of 139 in TN (top 45%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: New Center Elementary (math 32% / reading 28%, grade F, #415 of 952 statewide, top 44%, 855 students, 0% FRL); Seymour Junior High (math 40% / reading 30%, grade F, #65 of 333 statewide, top 20%, 766 students, 0% FRL); Sevier County High School (math 20% / reading 38%, grade F, #92 of 332 statewide, top 28%, 1,248 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.6%/yr); 1142 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,594 units permitted in Sevier County in 2024 (456 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,233/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 611% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $40k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sevier County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$64k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 364 days — a 12% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $375k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,296 (40.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 364 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.46%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 14.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $617,694
• List price: $375,000
• Delta: -39.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2220 Breezy Road Rd	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,392 (-8%)	8mo	$465,000	$334	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $145,021
• Equity at exit: $337,830

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.35×
• Total profit: $456,859
• Equity at exit: $728,543

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37876

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 1142
• Price-to-rent: 14.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,233 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$469 /mo · $5,625/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $-827

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,280

Max offer price $255,260

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-568	-5% $-698	+0% $-827	+5% $-957	+10% $-1,087
Rent	-10% $-1,004	-5% $-916	+0% $-827	+5% $-739	+10% $-651
Rate	-1.0pp $-639	-0.5pp $-732	base $-827	+0.5pp $-925	+1.0pp $-1,024

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3933 Dollys Dr Unit 56B Sevierville, TN	2.0	2.5	1400	$2,495	$1.78	45d	1	0.94mi
3402 Birds Creek Rd Sevierville, TN	3.0	2.5	1986	$2,350	$1.18	45d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $375,000 Active 364 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $375,000 Active 363 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $375,000 Active 362 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $375,000 Active 361 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $375,000 Active 360 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $375,000 Active 358 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $375,000 Active 357 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $375,000 Active 355 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $375,000 Active 354 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $375,000 Active 353 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $375,000 Active 352 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $375,000 Active 347 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $375,000 Active 346 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $375,000 Active 345 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $375,000 Active 344 DOM
16. 2026-03-23
    price $375,000 1184-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1184 chars)

    Tucked into the beauty of Sevier County, this inviting home offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and opportunity. Situated on approximately 1 acre, this property gives you room to breathe while still being conveniently located to everything Sevierville has to offer. The home itself is warm and welcoming, offering a layout that works for both everyday living and hosting family and friends. Whether you're looking for a primary residence, a second home, or an investment opportunity, this property checks all the right boxes. One of the standout features here is flexibility--buyers have the option to purchase additional adjoining acreage (4.04 acres), creating even more space and potential if desired. A one-year home warranty is included, giving added peace of mind as you settle in. If you've been looking for a property that offers both livability and future opportunity, this one is absolutely worth a look. Disclaimer: All information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Buyer and buyer's agent to perform all due diligence and independently verify all details, including but not limited to square footage, acreage, zoning, condition, and availability of utilities.

17. 2026-01-10
    price $489,900 1184-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1184 chars)

    Tucked into the beauty of Sevier County, this inviting home offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and opportunity. Situated on approximately 1 acre, this property gives you room to breathe while still being conveniently located to everything Sevierville has to offer. The home itself is warm and welcoming, offering a layout that works for both everyday living and hosting family and friends. Whether you're looking for a primary residence, a second home, or an investment opportunity, this property checks all the right boxes. One of the standout features here is flexibility--buyers have the option to purchase additional adjoining acreage (4.04 acres), creating even more space and potential if desired. A one-year home warranty is included, giving added peace of mind as you settle in. If you've been looking for a property that offers both livability and future opportunity, this one is absolutely worth a look. Disclaimer: All information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Buyer and buyer's agent to perform all due diligence and independently verify all details, including but not limited to square footage, acreage, zoning, condition, and availability of utilities.

18. 2025-06-20
    price $499,900 1184-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1184 chars)

    Tucked into the beauty of Sevier County, this inviting home offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and opportunity. Situated on approximately 1 acre, this property gives you room to breathe while still being conveniently located to everything Sevierville has to offer. The home itself is warm and welcoming, offering a layout that works for both everyday living and hosting family and friends. Whether you're looking for a primary residence, a second home, or an investment opportunity, this property checks all the right boxes. One of the standout features here is flexibility--buyers have the option to purchase additional adjoining acreage (4.04 acres), creating even more space and potential if desired. A one-year home warranty is included, giving added peace of mind as you settle in. If you've been looking for a property that offers both livability and future opportunity, this one is absolutely worth a look. Disclaimer: All information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Buyer and buyer's agent to perform all due diligence and independently verify all details, including but not limited to square footage, acreage, zoning, condition, and availability of utilities.

19. 2025-06-20
    listed $429,900 Active 1184-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1184 chars)

    Tucked into the beauty of Sevier County, this inviting home offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and opportunity. Situated on approximately 1 acre, this property gives you room to breathe while still being conveniently located to everything Sevierville has to offer. The home itself is warm and welcoming, offering a layout that works for both everyday living and hosting family and friends. Whether you're looking for a primary residence, a second home, or an investment opportunity, this property checks all the right boxes. One of the standout features here is flexibility--buyers have the option to purchase additional adjoining acreage (4.04 acres), creating even more space and potential if desired. A one-year home warranty is included, giving added peace of mind as you settle in. If you've been looking for a property that offers both livability and future opportunity, this one is absolutely worth a look. Disclaimer: All information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Buyer and buyer's agent to perform all due diligence and independently verify all details, including but not limited to square footage, acreage, zoning, condition, and availability of utilities.

20. 2018-10-01
    soldstatus $150,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,796
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$5,625
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,144
• − Management: −$2,144
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$16,907
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,058
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,872/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sevier County
• NCES district ID: 4703780
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,730
• Composite: 25.12/100
• National rank: #7527
• State rank: #62 of 139 in TN

Livability — Gatlinburg

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #27
• US rank: #5524

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing B- Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sevier County · 80,402 people
• Metro: Sevierville, TN
• Population (ZIP): 33,561
• Household income: $58,277
• Rent vs Own: 23.4% rent · 76.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 611.0

Population outlook (Sevier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 107,903 people
• By 2030: 113,633 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 123,969 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 132,123 · +22.4%
• By 2075: 148,524 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 153,436 · +42.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sevier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.1) · D 18.9% · R 80.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.1pp toward R · 2008: -48.1pp · 2024: -61.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.1 2020: R+57.6 2016: R+61.7 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+48.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.06%
• Current HPI: 477.19
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.57%
• Metro: Sevierville, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+150.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $375,000 TVRMLS
• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $489,900 TVRMLS
• 2025-06-20 Price Changed $499,900 TVRMLS
• 2025-06-20 Listed $429,900 TVRMLS
• 2018-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $546 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.