Kitson Plan · San Antonio, TX 78221

$206,499

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,402 sqft · SingleFamily · 48 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Rent growth +0.7/5.0

Listing remarks

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $205,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces; 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Kitson plan (new construction); Address: San Antonio, TX 78221
• Construction: New construction (Plan); Listed 2026
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1402

Interior

• Kitchen: New-construction plan kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $206,499 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $229,109.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $206k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-325 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $182k (11.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (22.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• Southside ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #771 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-7.2%/yr); 369 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $159,296 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.08%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $229,109
• List price: $206,499
• Delta: -9.87%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1706 Charlie Cv	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+1%)	1mo	$194,999	$138	87
1714 Charlie Cv	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,402 (0%)	1mo	$193,999	$138	87
1731 Charlie Cv	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,402 (0%)	1mo	$197,999	$141	86
1740 Charlie Cv	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,402 (0%)	2mo	$191,999	$137	85
1752 Charlie Cv	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+1%)	1mo	$184,999	$131	83
13234 Club House Blvd	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,377 (-2%)	1mo	$246,675	$179	58
1722 Charlie Cv	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+14%)	2mo	$209,999	$131	57
1736 Charlie Cv	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,575 (+12%)	2mo	$205,999	$131	56
14711 Star Cactus	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,206 (-14%)	1mo	$200,500	$166	50
2003 Organ Pipe Cactus	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,206 (-14%)	1mo	$207,500	$172	50
14836 Gold Lace Cactus	0.58mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,543 (+10%)	0mo	$215,000	$139	49
2213 Organ Pipe Cactus	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,206 (-14%)	0mo	$217,030	$180	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.03% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-9,297
• Equity at exit: $90,720

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $5,455
• Equity at exit: $130,909

Cash invested: $64,151 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78221

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Rents YoY: -7.2%
• Active inventory: 369
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,593 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$286 /mo · $3,437/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $-325

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,004

Max offer price $182,098

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,277
• Closing costs: $6,873
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1711 Cody Clf San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1689	$1,695	$1.00	24d	1	0.25mi
1003 Beck Rd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1213	$1,490	$1.23	4d	1	0.43mi
1030 Snedeker DR San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,499	$1.00	24d	1	0.43mi
13806 S Strange Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1668	$1,795	$1.08	24d	1	0.61mi
1038 Janzen Rd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,725	$1.53	22d	1	0.84mi
1115 Janzen Rd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,595	$1.23	44d	1	0.86mi
1019 Magrum Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,445	$1.11	11d	1	0.90mi
1019 Snedeker Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,449	$1.21	24d	1	0.97mi
13222 Dutra Rd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,595	$1.26	24d	1	0.97mi
907 Stricker Path San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1129	$1,500	$1.33	24d	1	0.98mi
1343 Art Wall Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,395	$0.97	44d	1	1.02mi
1327 Mission Grande Unit 710 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	945	$1,081	$1.14	3d	1	1.24mi
934 Cook Bnd San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,445	$0.89	24d	1	1.27mi
12030 Picard Bnd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,495	$1.03	3d	1	1.29mi
12055 Links Pkwy San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,625	$1.10	24d	1	1.30mi
12015 Still Pass San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1635	$1,600	$0.98	20d	1	1.34mi
742 Haas Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1699	$2,100	$1.24	18d	1	1.38mi
718 Albatross Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,650	$1.15	12d	1	1.42mi
12910 Clubhouse Blvd San Antonio, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	920	$1,384	$1.50	2d	27	1.44mi
11963 Sand Wedge Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	3.5	1474	$1,575	$1.07	4d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $206,499 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $206,499 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $206,499 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $206,499 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $206,499 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $206,499 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,999 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,999 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $205,999 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $205,999 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,999 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,999 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,999 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,999 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    price $205,999 419-char remark
16. 2026-05-01
    listed $208,999 Active 419-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,116
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,834
• − Property taxes: −$3,437
• − Insurance: −$1,146
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,529
• − Management: −$1,529
• − Depreciation: −$6,665
• Taxable loss: −$8,024
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,926
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,973/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southside ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,526
• Composite: 17.68/100
• National rank: #9027
• State rank: #771 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,178
• Household income: $63,811
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1180.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 89% Two or more races 28% White 9% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 74%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 45% English-only · Spanish 54%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.03%
• Current HPI: 251.1635
• Rent YoY: ▼ -7.21%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B