514 Ellison Pkwy · Haines City, FL 33844

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1992 7,222 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. SHORT SALE!! CASH, HARD MONEY or FHA 203K Rehab Loan ONLY!! Investor or renovation opportunity- This 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath home offers solid fundamentals with capital improvements already completed, including a new roof (2025) and new windows (2025)—allowing buyers to focus budget on interior upgrades and customization. The property features a functional floor plan and a fully fenced yard, providing flexibility for future use, expansion, or outdoor improvements. Detached storage structures add additional utility for tools, materials, or workspace during renovations. Ideal for investors, flippers, or ow

Key facts

• Fully fenced yard
• New roof
• New windows

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW WINDOWS
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• DETACHED STORAGE STRUCTURES
• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.17 acres (52 x 139); Unfurnished
• Financial info: Homestead exempt
• HOA & community: No association; Pets allowed (cats and dogs permitted)

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity available and connected; Water available and connected; Paved road access
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; East-facing entry
• Construction: Stucco and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built with approximately 1,008 square feet of living area
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $519 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sandhill Elementary School (math 21% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,932 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 991 students, 55% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (38%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $125k implies a 1462% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.79%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $9,748
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $38,994
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,668 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,094/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $519

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,011

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
639 Ellison Pkwy Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	784	$1,200	$1.53	3d	1	0.05mi
534 Wayland Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1455	$1,950	$1.34	14d	1	0.82mi
432 Summer Grove Ln Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1286	$1,850	$1.44	23d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-09
   price $125,000
3. 2026-03-30
   price $175,000
4. 2026-02-27
   price $190,000
5. 2026-02-19
   listed $200,000 Active
6. 2013-11-05
   historical
7. 2013-09-23
   listed $75,500
8. 1991-05-01
   soldstatus $8,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,094 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,094 · $91/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,015
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,094
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,601
• − Management: −$1,601
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $4,456
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,069
• After-tax cash flow: $5,158/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1462.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $190,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Listed $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-11-05 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-09-23 Listed $75,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1991-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $8,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,094 · +13.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.